Decision Support System for Integrated Reservoir Operation Using Artificial Intelligence Based on Operational Ensemble Meteorological Forecasts

• Project/Area Number: 16K06510
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Nohara Daisuke 京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (00452326)
• Research Collaborator: GOURBESVILLE Philippe ; KIM Young-Oh
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
• Keywords: アンサンブル予報 / ダム / 弾力的操作 / 人工知能 / 意思決定支援 / ダム操作 / 気圧分布 / アンサンブル予測 / 水資源 / 自然災害 / 気象学 / ソフトコンピューティング

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A decision support system for integrated reservoir operation considering operational ensemble meteorological forecasts was developed using artificial intelligence techniques. A method to estimate basin rainfall prediction and its uncertainty by use of statistical relationship between pressure distributions and basin rainfall estimated from historical flood records in the target river basin. An optimal reservoir operation strategy is then estimated from predicted conditions of pressure distributions and rainfall by ensemble forecasts for integrated reservoir operation such as prior release operation considering its effects and risks in both the flood and drought managements.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の学術的な特色は，アンサンブル予報に含まれる複雑な情報を高速に処理する上で親和性が高いことに着目して，ダム操作時の予報データの活用に不可欠な大量の情報処理を人工知能技術や情報工学的手法を駆使して支援する手法を開発する点にある．また，アンサンブル予報の降水量予測値がそのままでは精度が芳しくないことに鑑み，予報に含まれる気圧場などの予測データを活用することで，降水予測精度の改善を図るとともに，流域の過去の出水時の経験を活用しながら，ダムの弾力的操作を行うことによって治水・利水管理の高度化を図る手法を検討しており，実管理者にも受け入れられやすい予測の利用方法を提案している．

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Reservoir operation for water supply considering operational ensemble hydrological predictions (2018)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 13(4) Pages: 650-659
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] 模擬作成されたアンサンブル流入量予測情報の再現性－ダム洪水操作計画への適用に向けて－ (2018)
  • Author(s): 野原大督・齋藤宏樹・HAPSARI Ratih Indri
  • Journal Title: 京都大学防災年報 Volume: 60B Pages: 696-701
  • NAID: 40021709777
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Towards Development of Effective Decision Support Systems for Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management (2018)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D., Gourbesville, P. and Ma, Q.
  • Journal Title: Annuals of Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Volume: 60B Pages: 702-710
  • NAID: 120006546143
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessment on Effects of Preliminary Release Operation of a Multi-purpose Reservoir Considering Ensemble Inflow Prediction (2018)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D. and Saito, H.
  • Journal Title: EPiC Series in Engineering Volume: 3 Pages: 1568-1574
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Reservoir Operation for Water Supply Considering Operational Ensemble Hydrological Predictions (2018)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D. and Hori, T.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 13(4)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 現業中長期アンサンブル降水予測情報を考慮した実時間ダム利水操作に関する研究 (2017)
  • Author(s): 野原大督・堀智晴・佐藤嘉展
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B1(水工学) Volume: 73(4)
  • NAID: 40021164576
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Real-time reservoir operation for drought management considering operational ensemble predictions of precipitation in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D., Hori, T. and Sato, Y.
  • Organizer: SimHydro 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A framework to assess effectiveness and risks of integrated reservoir operation for flood management considering ensemble hydrological prediction (2017)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D., Saito, H. and Hori, T.
  • Organizer: XVI World Water Congress (IWRA)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Decision support for integrated reservoir operation for flood management considering one-week ensemble forecast of precipitation (2016)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D. and Hori, T.
  • Organizer: The 12th International Conference on Hydroinformatics
  • Place of Presentation: Incheon
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Advanced reservoir operation for water supply considering operational ensemble hydro-meteorological prediction (2016)
  • Author(s): Nohara, D. and Hori, T.
  • Organizer: The 20th Congress of the Asia Pacific Division of International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research
  • Place of Presentation: Colombo
  • Int'l Joint Research