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Practical Applications on time coefficient estimation for hourly origin-destination demand from observed link flow

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K06534
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
Research InstitutionNagoya Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

Fujita Motohiro  名古屋工業大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (90229013)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
KeywordsOD交通量推計 / 時間帯別交通配分 / 観測リンク交通量 / 時間変動係数 / OD交通量推定 / 時間帯別均衡配分 / 時間帯別 / 交通量予測 / 利用者均衡配分 / 交通工学・国土計画 / 交通計画
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Day-long origin-destination (OD) demand estimation for transportation forecasting is advantageous in terms of accuracy and reliability because it is not affected by hourly variations in the OD distribution. This research explores enhancements of the time-coefficient estimate (TCoE) model that estimates hourly OD demands from observed link flows, given proven a day-long OD demand over a large-scale road network. The model is based on a bi-level formulation of generalized least squares and a semi-dynamic traffic assignment. This research examines how to set many variables and subareas in a study area, including outside OD demands in the outside network throughout Japan in order to achieve good accuracy and efficiency.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

OD交通量(出発地―到着地間交通量)の予測は、各地点の交通量や渋滞量をシミュレーションするうえで重要なデータであるが、日OD交通量に比べて時間帯別OD交通量は予測精度を上げるのがこれまで難しかった。本研究では、観測した地点交通量から時間帯別OD交通量を、研究室で開発してきている時間帯別交通予測技術を併用して逆に推定する方法を開発することで、大きく精度を改善させることができ、これは新規性有用性の高い方法といえる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (8 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] HOURLY ORIGIN-DESTINATION DEMAND ESTIMATION USING TIME COEFFICIENTS FROM TRAFFIC COUNTS BASED ON SEMI-DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT2018

    • Author(s)
      Motohiro Fujita a and Shinji Yamada
    • Journal Title

      Proceedinds of the 7th International Symposium on Dynamic Traffic Assignment

      Volume: 7 Pages: 114-117

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Time Coefficient Estimation for Hourly Origin-Destination Demand from Observed Link Flow Based on Semidynamic Traffic Assignment2017

    • Author(s)
      Fujita Motohiro、Yamada Shinji、Murakami Shintaro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Advanced Transportation

      Volume: 2017 Pages: 1-14

    • DOI

      10.1155/2017/6495861

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] HOURLY OD FLOW ESTIMATION FROM OBSERVED TRAFFIC FLOWS BASED ON TIME COEFFICIENTS OF DAILY OD FLOW CONSIDERING EACH ZONE AND DIRECTION2016

    • Author(s)
      藤田素弘,村上慎太朗
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)

      Volume: 72 Issue: 5 Pages: I_617-I_625

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejipm.72.I_617

    • NAID

      130005435628

    • ISSN
      2185-6540
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] 観測リンク数の変化が時間変動係数逆推定手法の精度に与える影響分析2019

    • Author(s)
      瀬川貴史,藤田素弘
    • Organizer
      土木学会中部支部研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 変動抑制を考慮した時間変動係数に基づく時間帯別OD交通量の逆推定手法2018

    • Author(s)
      山上恭平,藤田素弘,市村康平
    • Organizer
      土木学会土木計画学研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 時間変動係数に基づく発時刻ベースの時間帯別OD交通量の逆推定手法2018

    • Author(s)
      市村康平 藤田素弘
    • Organizer
      土木学会中部支部研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Hourly origin-destination demand estimation base on Time coefficients from observed link flow through semi-dynamic traffic assignment2017

    • Author(s)
      Motohiro Fujita,Shinji Yamada Shintaro Murakami Koji Noda
    • Organizer
      12th International Conference of Eastern Asia Society For Transportation Studies
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 地域別方向別を考慮した時間帯別OD交通量の補正係数の逆推定手法の研究2016

    • Author(s)
      市村康平,藤田素弘
    • Organizer
      土木計画学研究講演会
    • Place of Presentation
      長崎大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-04
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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