Prognostic model to support their decision making of cancer patients in the era of precision medicine

• Project/Area Number: 16K09046
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: Osaka Medical College (2018); Osaka International Cancer Institute (2016-2017)
• Principal Investigator: Yuri Ito 大阪医科大学, 研究支援センター, 准教授 (60585305)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 福井 敬祐 大阪医科大学, 研究支援センター, 助教 (50760922) ; 杉本 知之 鹿児島大学, 理工学域理学系, 教授 (70324829)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
• Keywords: 生存解析 / 医療データベース / がん登録 / 肺がん / 生存時間解析 / データベース / 予後予測モデル / 予後予測 / 臨床疫学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We aimed to establish a prognostic model for cancer using the real-world data to support the decision making of cancer patients and medical staff in the era of precision medicine. The prognostic models were based on statistical methods, such as the regression tree for survival data and classification by scoring risk of death from cancer, applying the database of cancer patients. We also examined the utility and limitation of the prognostic models. Statistical approach for the prognostic models were sophisticated by developing the approach to use Brior score for the excess hazard models.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、実際のがん患者データベースに基づく予後予測モデルの構築および方法論の開発を行った点において学術的意義が高い。データベースの利点・欠点を理解し、統計解析が可能である疫学者と、実データにより構築したモデルが現実的なものであるかの判断ができる臨床医、より精密な方法論により、実データをモデルに適用する統計専門家のコラボレーションにより、正確かつ有用な予後予測モデルの構築が可能となった。がん患者や家族、現場の医療従事者にとって、個別化医療が重要となる時代に有用なツールを提供することができた。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Trends in Small-Cell Lung Cancer Survival in 1993–2006 Based on Population-Based Cancer Registry Data in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Oze I, Ito H, Nishino Y, Hattori M, Nakayama T, Miyashiro I, Matsuo K, Ito Y.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 29 Issue: 9 Pages: 347-353
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20180112
  • NAID: 130007703030
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Year and Date: 2019-09-05
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Impact of Comorbidities on Survival in Gastric, Colorectal, and Lung Cancer Patients (2019)
  • Author(s): Morishima T, Matsumoto Y, Koeda N, Shimada H, Maruhama T, Matsuki D, Nakata K, Ito Y, Tabuchi T, Miyashiro I
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 29 Issue: 3 Pages: 110-115
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20170241
  • NAID: 130007607642
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Year and Date: 2019-03-05
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Trends and projections of cancer mortality in Osaka, Japan from 1977 to 2032 (2019)
  • Author(s): Fukui Keisuke、Ito Yuri、Nakayama Tomio
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology Volume: 49 Issue: 4 Pages: 383-388
  • DOI: 10.1093/jjco/hyy204
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Epidemiological and clinical analyses of cervical cancer using data from the population-based Osaka cancer registry (2019)
  • Author(s): Yagi A, Ueda Y, Kakuda M, Tanaka Y, Ikeda S, Matsuzaki S, Kobayashi E, Morishima T, Miyashiro I, Fukui K, Ito Y, Nakayama T, Kimura T
  • Journal Title: Cancer Research Volume: 79 Issue: 6 Pages: 1252-1259
  • DOI: 10.1158/0008-5472.can-18-3109
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Impact of sex difference on survival of bladder cancer: A population‐based registry data in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Nakayama Masashi、Ito Yuri、Hatano Koji、Nakai Yasutomo、Kakimoto Ken‐ichi、Miyashiro Isao、Nishimura Kazuo
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Urology Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 6 Pages: 649-654
  • DOI: 10.1111/iju.13955
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Group-sequential logrank methods for trial designs using bivariate non-competing event time outcomes (2019)
  • Author(s): Sugimoto T, Hamasaki T, Evans SR, Halabi S.
  • Journal Title: Lifetime Data Analysis Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 2 Pages: 266-291
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10985-019-09470-4
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The role of ultrasound imaging in adult patients with testicular torsion: a systematic review and meta-analysis. (2019)
  • Author(s): Ota K, Fukui K, Oba K, Shimoda A, Oka M, Ota K, Sakaue M, Takasu A
  • Journal Title: Journal of medical ultrasonics Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 325-334
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10396-019-00937-3
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Statistical inference for estimating the incidence of cancer at the prefectural level in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Tanabe, R., Kamo, K., Fukui, K., Imori, S.
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology Volume: 49 Issue: 5 Pages: 481-485
  • DOI: 10.1093/jjco/hyz033
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Recent Improvement in the Long-term Survival of Breast Cancer Patients by Age and Stage in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Yoshimura, A. Ito, H. Nishino, Y. Hattori, M. Matsuda, T. Miyashiro, I. Nakayama, T. Iwata, H. Matsuo, K. Tanaka, H. Ito, Y.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 28 Issue: 10 Pages: 420-427
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20170103
  • NAID: 130007495995
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Year and Date: 2018-10-05
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] 【造血器腫瘍】 小児の二次がんの疫学. (2018)
  • Author(s): 伊藤ゆり.
  • Journal Title: 腫瘍内科 Volume: 22 Pages: 682-7
• [Journal Article] A population-based cohort study to evaluate the effectiveness of lung cancer screening using low-dose CT in Hitachi city, Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Nawa Takeshi、Fukui Keisuke、Nakayama Tomio、Sagawa Motoyasu、Nakagawa Tohru、Ichimura Hideo、Mizoue Tetsuya
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology Volume: 49 Issue: 2 Pages: 130-136
  • DOI: 10.1093/jjco/hyy185
  • NAID: 120007133650
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Efficacy of vonoprazan in prevention of bleeding from endoscopic submucosal dissection-induced gastric ulcers: a prospective randomized phase II study (2018)
  • Author(s): Hamada K, Uedo N, Tonai Y, Arao M, Suzuki S, Iwatsubo T, Kato M, Shichijo S, Yamasaki Y, Matsuura N, Nakahira H, Kanesaka T, Yamamoto S, Akasaka T, Hanaoka N, Takeuchi Y, Higashino K, Ishihara R, Okada H, Iishi H, Fukui K, Shimokawa T.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Gastroenterology Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Pages: 122-130
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00535-018-1487-6
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of Body Mass Index on Survival of Pancreatic Cancer Patients in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Okura, T. Fujii, M. Shiode, J. Ito, Y. Kojima, T. Nasu, J. Niguma, T. Yoshioka, M. Mimura, T. Yamamoto, K.
  • Journal Title: Acta Medica Okayama Volume: 72 Issue: 2 Pages: 129-135
  • DOI: 10.18926/AMO/55853
  • NAID: 120006459959
  • URL: https://ousar.lib.okayama-u.ac.jp/55853
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Number of Nodules but not Size of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Can Predict Refractoriness to Transarterial Chemoembolization and Poor Prognosis. (2018)
  • Author(s): Katayama K, Imai T, Abe Y, Nawa T, Maeda N, Nakanishi K, Wada H, Fukui K, Ito Y, Yokota I, Ohkawa K.
  • Journal Title: J Clin Med Res. Volume: 10 Issue: 10 Pages: 765-71
  • DOI: 10.14740/jocmr3559w
• [Journal Article] Endoscopic Balloon Dilation Followed By Intralesional Steroid Injection for Anastomotic Strictures After Esophagectomy: A Randomized Controlled Trial (2018)
  • Author(s): Hanaoka N, Ishihara R, Motoori M, Takeuchi Y, Uedo N, Matsuura N, Hayashi Y, Yamada T, Yamashina T, Higashino K, Akasaka T, Yano M, Ito Y, Miyata H, Sugimura K, Hamada K, Yamasaki Y, Kanesaka T, Aoi K, Ito T, Iishi H.
  • Journal Title: Am J Gastroenterol. Volume: 113 Issue: 10 Pages: 1468-74
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41395-018-0253-y
• [Journal Article] Childhood cancer incidence and survival in Japan and England: A population-based study (1993-2010) (2018)
  • Author(s): Nakata, K. Ito, Y. Magadi, W. Bonaventure, A. Stiller, C. A. Katanoda, K. Matsuda, T. Miyashiro, I. Pritchard-Jones, K. Rachet, B.
  • Journal Title: Cancer Science Volume: 109 Issue: 2 Pages: 422-34
  • DOI: 10.1111/cas.13457
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Improvement in 5-Year Relative Survival in Cancer of the Corpus Uteri From 1993–2000 to 2001–2006 in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Inoue, S. Hosono, S. Ito, H. Oze, I. Nishino, Y. Hattori, M. Matsuda, T. Miyashiro, I. Nakayama, T. Mizuno, M. Matsuo, K. Kato, K. Tanaka, H. Ito, Y.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 28 Issue: 2 Pages: 75-80
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20170008
  • NAID: 130006337729
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Descriptive epidemiological study of vaginal cancer using data from the Osaka Japan population-based cancer registry: Long-term analysis from a clinical viewpoint (2017)
  • Author(s): Yagi, A. Ueda, Y. Kakuda, M. Tanaka, Y. Egawa-Takata, T. Morimoto, A. Iwamiya, T. Matsuzaki, S. Kobayashi, E. Yoshino, K. Fukui, K. Ito, Y. Nakayama, T. Kimura, T.
  • Journal Title: Medicine Volume: 96 Issue: 32 Pages: e7751-e7751
  • DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000007751
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Kinoshita, F. L. Ito, Y. Morishima, T. Miyashiro, I. Nakayama, T.
  • Journal Title: Japanese journal of clinical oncology Volume: 9 Issue: 9 Pages: 863-869
  • DOI: 10.1093/jjco/hyx094
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Sizing clinical trials when comparing bivariate time-to-event outcomes (2017)
  • Author(s): Sugimoto T, Hamasaki T, Evans S.R., Sozu T.
  • Journal Title: Statistics in Medicine Volume: 36 Issue: 9 Pages: 1363-1382
  • DOI: 10.1002/sim.7225
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Pethidine hydrochloride is a better sedation method for pharyngeal observation by transoral endoscopy compared with no sedation and midazolam (2017)
  • Author(s): Yamasaki Y, Ishihara R, Hanaoka N, Matsuura N, Kanesaka T, Akasaka T, Kato M, Hamada K, Tonai Y, Yamamoto S, Takeuchi Y, Higashino K, Uedo N, Ito Y, Yano M, Iishi H
  • Journal Title: Dig Endosc Volume: 29 Issue: 1 Pages: 39-48
  • DOI: 10.1111/den.12746
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Smoking at the time of diagnosis and mortality in cancer patients: What benefit does the quitter gain? (2017)
  • Author(s): Tabuchi T, Goto A, Ito Y, Fukui K, Miyashiro I, Shinozaki T
  • Journal Title: Int J Cancer Volume: 140 Issue: 8 Pages: 1789-95
  • DOI: 10.1002/ijc.30601
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The incidence and mortality rates of neuroblastoma cases before and after the cessation of the mass screening program in Japan: A descriptive study (2017)
  • Author(s): Shinagawa T, Kitamura T, Katanoda K, Matsuda T, Ito Y, Sobue T
  • Journal Title: Int J Cancer Volume: 140 Issue: 3 Pages: 618-625
  • DOI: 10.1002/ijc.30482
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Evaluating the ability to detect pancreatic lesions using a special ultrasonography examination focusing on the pancreas (2017)
  • Author(s): Nakao M, Katayama K, Fukuda J, Okagaki S, Misu K, Miyazaki S, Matsuno N, Ashida R, Ioka T, Ito Y, Ohkawa K
  • Journal Title: Eur J Radiol Volume: 91 Pages: 10-14
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrad.2017.03.010
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Incomplete resection rate of cold snare polypectomy: a prospective single-arm observational study (2017)
  • Author(s): Matsuura N, Takeuchi Y, Yamashina T, Ito T, Aoi K, Nagai K, Kanesaka T, Matsui F, Fujii M, Akasaka T, Hanaoka N, Higashino K, Tomita Y, Ito Y, Ishihara R, Iishi H, Uedo N
  • Journal Title: Endoscopy Volume: 49 Issue: 03 Pages: 251-257
  • DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-100215
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Vonoprazan versus conventional proton pump inhibitor-based triple therapy as first-line treatment against Helicobacter pylori: A multicenter retrospective study in clinical practice. (2016)
  • Author(s): Shichijo S, Hirata Y, Niikura R, Hayakawa Y, Yamada A, Mochizuki S, Matsuo K, Isomura Y, Seto M, Suzuki N, Suzuki H, Yamamoto S, Sugimoto T, Omae T, Okamoto M, Watabe H, Togo G, Takano N, Fukui K, Ito Y, Koike K.
  • Journal Title: J Dig Dis Volume: 17 Issue: 10 Pages: 670-675
  • DOI: 10.1111/1751-2980.12398
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of branched-chain amino acid supplementation on survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib: A multicenter retrospective cohort study. (2016)
  • Author(s): Imanaka K, Ohkawa K, Tatsumi T, Katayama K, Inoue A, Imai Y, Oshita M, Iio S, Mita E, Fukui H, Yamada A, Nakanishi F, Inada M, Doi Y, Suzuki K, Kaneko A, Marubashi S, Ito Y, Fukui K, Sakamori R, Yakushijin T, Hiramatsu N, Hayashi N, Takehara T, Osaka Liver F
  • Journal Title: Hepatol Res Volume: 46 Issue: 10 Pages: 1002-1010
  • DOI: 10.1111/hepr.12640
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] マイクロシミュレーションモデルを用いた大腸がん検診における受診年齢上限の検討. (2019)
  • Author(s): 福井敬祐, 加茂憲一, 伊藤ゆり, 片野田耕太, 中山富雄.
  • Organizer: 第29回日本疫学会学術総会
• [Presentation] がん登録の未来～患者・地域に解決をもたらすデータサイエンスへの進化のために～「地域ができること」. J-CIPシンポジウム『がん登録の現在と未来』 (2018)
  • Author(s): 伊藤ゆり.
  • Organizer: 日本がん登録協議会 第27回学術集会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] S-1-2. Socio-economic inequalities in cancer survival in Japan, シンポジウム1「がん疫学研究の未解決分野」 (2018)
  • Author(s): 伊藤ゆり
  • Organizer: がん予防学術大会2018香川
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Estimation of effects of colorectal cancer screening by Fecal Occult Blood Test for reduction in colorectal cancer mortality based on micro-simulation model. (2018)
  • Author(s): Fukui K, Ito Y, Kamo K, Katanoda K, Nakayama T
  • Organizer: The 40th annual meeting of the International Association of Cancer Registries.
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 探してみよう読んでみよう難治性がんの統計 J-CIPセミナー (2018)
  • Author(s): 伊藤ゆり
  • Organizer: 第3回全国がん患者学会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 過剰ハザードモデルにおけるBrierスコアの推測 (2018)
  • Author(s): 杉本知之・福井敬祐・伊藤ゆり
  • Organizer: 日本計算機統計学会シンポジウム
• [Presentation] 相対生存に代わるネット生存率に対する算出手法の特徴とその比較. (2018)
  • Author(s): 小向翔, 福井敬祐, 松田智大, 伊藤ゆり.
  • Organizer: 日本がん登録協議会 第27回学術集会.
• [Presentation] 大阪府がん登録データを用いたコウホート分析とその比較について (2017)
  • Author(s): 福井敬祐
  • Organizer: 統計数理研究所・調査科学セミナー
  • Place of Presentation: 立川市
  • Year and Date: 2017-02-27
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Impact of other causes of death on the mortality of cancer patients：a study based on registry data (2017)
  • Author(s): Charvat H, Fukui K, Matsuda T, Katanoda K, Ito Y
  • Organizer: 第27回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 甲府市
  • Year and Date: 2017-01-27
• [Presentation] 職業別死亡率の時系列分析における地域差の検討 (2017)
  • Author(s): 福井敬祐・伊藤ゆり・中谷友樹・近藤尚己
  • Organizer: 第27回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 甲府市
  • Year and Date: 2017-01-27
• [Presentation] 空間的階層ベイズモデルを用いたがん生存率の地理的格差の解析 (2017)
  • Author(s): 中谷友樹, 伊藤ゆり, 福井敬祐, 中山富雄
  • Organizer: 第27回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 甲府市
  • Year and Date: 2017-01-27
• [Presentation] 生存解析・アラカルト (2017)
  • Author(s): 伊藤ゆり
  • Organizer: 第27回日本疫学会学術総会 第24回疫学セミナー
  • Place of Presentation: 甲府市
  • Year and Date: 2017-01-25
  • Invited
• [Presentation] がん登録データで研究しよう！～よりよいがん対策のために～：学術委員会シンポジウム『new mission, a new hope』 (2017)
  • Author(s): 伊藤ゆり
  • Organizer: 日本がん登録協議会 第26回学術集会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Microsimulation model for colorectal cancer to estimate effect of FOBT screening programme and improvement in cancer care in Japan: CAMOS-J CRC. Symposium 6: Decision Making Tool for Health Policy based on Innovative Simulation Approach (2017)
  • Author(s): Kamo, K. Fukui, K. Ito, Y. Katanoda, K.
  • Organizer: IEA-WCE 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Monitoring health inequalities using government statistics in Japan: the current status and future challenge: Symposium 16: The first Japan-Korea-Taiwan Joint Epidemiology Seminar Session "Health-related database: utilization for epidemiological research" (2017)
  • Author(s): Ito, Y. Fukui, K. Kondo, N. Nakaya, T.
  • Organizer: IEA-WCE 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Recent trends in regional differences in cancer survival in Japan: population-based cancer registry data in 1993-2008: Plenary Session 1. (2017)
  • Author(s): Ito, Y. Fukui, K. Charvat, H. Katanoda, K. Matsuda, T.
  • Organizer: The 39th annual meeting of International Association of Cancer Registries.
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Trends in Socio-Economic Inequalities in Cancer Outcome in Japan: Session 4- Cancer Registries (2017)
  • Author(s): Ito, Y.
  • Organizer: 2nd Pacific Rim Cancer Biostatistics Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Cancer survival analysis for patients using population-based cancer registry data: The Young Investigator Awards Lectures (2017)
  • Author(s): Ito, Y.
  • Organizer: The 76th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Cancer Association
• [Presentation] Trends in areal socio-economic inequalities of cancer mortality in Japan, based on national vital statistics from 2006 to 2014 (2016)
  • Author(s): Ito Y, Fukui K, Nakaya T, Yonejima M, Yasumoto S, Kondo N, Nakayama T
  • Organizer: UICC, World Cancer Congress
  • Place of Presentation: Paris, France
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-31
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Areal-level socioeconomic inequalities in cancer death using nationwide vital statistics, Japan, 2005-2014 (2016)
  • Author(s): Ito Y, Nakayama T, Fukui K, Nakaya T, Yonejima M, Yasumoto S, Kondo N, Rachet B
  • Organizer: 第75回日本癌学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 横浜市
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-06
• [Presentation] Prognostic tree for non-small-cell lung cancer patients: an application of survival CART based on the excess hazard model. (2016)
  • Author(s): Ito Y, Sugimoto T, Fukui K, Okami J, Nakayama T.
  • Organizer: Population-based Time-to-event Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: London, UK
  • Year and Date: 2016-08-31
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Sizing clinical trials with two survival outcomes (2016)
  • Author(s): Sugimoto T, Hamasaki T., Evans SR, Sozu T
  • Organizer: The 25th South Taiwan Statistics Conference
  • Place of Presentation: National Sun Yat-sen University
  • Year and Date: 2016-06-24
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Trends in areal socio-economic inequalities of mortality of all and main causes of death in Japan: 1995-2014 (2016)
  • Author(s): Ito Y, Fukui K, Yonejima M, Kondo N, Nakaya T.
  • Organizer: Society of Epidemiologic Association 49th Annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Miami, US
  • Year and Date: 2016-06-21
  • Int'l Joint Research