| Project/Area Number |
16K09061
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Epidemiology and preventive medicine
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| Research Institution | Sapporo Medical University |
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Principal Investigator |
Sumi Ayako 札幌医科大学, 医学部, 准教授 (10363699)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
小林 宣道 札幌医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (80186759)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | 結核 / サーベイランス / 季節性 / 気象 / 時系列解析 / スペクトル解析 / 日本 / 中国 / 感染症サーベイランス / 空間疫学 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We investigated the seasonality of age-specific tuberculosis (TB) in Japan. To allow the development of TB control strategies for different age groups, we used a time series analysis to analyse the monthly age-specific numbers of newly registered cases of all forms of active TB in Japan from January 1998 to December 2013. We defined the contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q1, as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle to the whole amplitude of the time series data. The Q1 values in the age groups corresponding to adolescence and middle life and old age were high. The peaks in the active TB epidemics for the old age occurred in August and September, 1-2 months behind the peaks for the adolescence and middle life (June and July). An active TB epidemic might be attributable to travel by public transport and irregular employment in the adolescence and middle life and immune system suppression by low winter temperatures in the old age.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の意義は、結核の対策が今日的課題となっている中国および日本において、結核の流行を規定する要因を系統的に調査し、結核対策のための基礎資料を作ることにあった。本研究は、結核の対策が今日的課題となっている日本と中国において、結核の流行変動を時間的および空間的に把握し、結核の環境要因および伝染性要因のリスクファクターの地域差を明らかにした。得られた知見が、日本と中国はもとより、他のアジア諸国における結核対策の推進に寄与することが期待される。
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