Formalization and automation for statistical causal inference

• Project/Area Number: 16K12398
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Yokohama City University (2018); Chiba University (2016-2017)
• Principal Investigator: Wang Jinfang 横浜市立大学, データサイエンス学部, 教授 (10270414)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
• Keywords: causal inference / conditional independence / formalization / cain / SSReflect / cell regression / Bayesian inference / coq/SSReflect / data science / ssreflect / predictive inference / transfer Regression / universal algebra / diabetes / 統計的因果推論 / 条件付き独立性 / Cain algebra / 形式化 / Coq/SSReflect

Outline of Final Research Achievements

(1)Proposed non-inferior tests for image-diagnosis based on cluster data and successfully showed the usefulness of the methods by simulation studies and applying the tests to patients with acute subarachnoid hemorrhage. (2) Proposed random effect models for combining data obtained by multiple raters. New confidence intervals are proposed for both sensitivity and specificity. (3) We carried out formalization of the algebraic system of cain proposed by Wang (2010) for manipulating statistical conditional independence using the proof assistant SSReflect.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

理論と応用の両面において、統計的因果推論は極めて重要な問題である。本研究では、この問題を正面から挑戦し、独自の代数系を提案し、それに基づく条件付き独立性の形式化を行った。これにより、条件付き独立性に関する操作の半自動化・自動化の可能性を開いた。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Bringing Up Data Scientists in Japan: Yokohama City University (2018)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang and Masataka Taguri
  • Journal Title: Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Teaching Statistics Volume: vol Pages: 1-1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Statistical Inference for Non-inferiority of Difference in Proportions of Clustered Matched-pair Data from Multiple Raters (2017)
  • Author(s): Saeki, H., Tango, T. and Wang, J.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics Volume: 27 Issue: 1 Pages: 70-38
  • DOI: 10.1080/10543406.2016.1148709
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Formalization of the Conditional Independence using Coq/SSReflect (2017)
  • Author(s): Yamaguchi, K. Kin, S. Shimoyama, M. Hagiwara, M. Yamamoto and J. Wang
  • Journal Title: Technical Reports of Mathematical Sciences, Chiba University Volume: 29 Pages: 1-40
• [Journal Article] Formalization of the Conditional Independence using Coq/SSReflect (2017)
  • Author(s): R. Yamaguchi, K. Kin, S. Shimoyama, M. Hagiwara, M. Yamamoto and J. Wang
  • Journal Title: Technical Reports of Mathematical Sciences, Chiba University, Volume 29 (1) Volume: 27 Pages: 1-40
• [Journal Article] Estimating the diagnostic accuracy from multiple raters based on a bivariate random effects model (2016)
  • Author(s): Saeki, H., Tango, T. and Wang, J.
  • Journal Title: 計量生物学 Volume: 37 Pages: 23-44
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Fostering Data Scientists at Yokohama City University, Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang and Tomoaki Nakatani
  • Organizer: 27th South Taiwan Statistical Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Cell regressions and transfer priors (2018)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang
  • Organizer: 27th South Taiwan Statistical Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 横浜市立大学データサイエンス学部の現状と今後 (2018)
  • Author(s): 汪 金芳
  • Organizer: 滋賀大学データサイエンスフォーラム2018
  • Invited
• [Presentation] On posterior predictive probabilities of diabetes based on comprehensive medical examination data (2017)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang
  • Organizer: 2017年度日本計量生物学会年会
  • Place of Presentation: 中央大学後楽園キャンパス（東京都・文京区）
  • Year and Date: 2017-03-16
• [Presentation] Cell Regression and Reference Priors (2017)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang
  • Organizer: 科研費シンポジウム「統計的モデリングと計算アルゴリズムの数理と展開」
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋大学 情報科学研究科（愛知県・名古屋市）
  • Year and Date: 2017-02-16
• [Presentation] Predictive inference with transferred priors (2017)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang
  • Organizer: 2017 Hangzhou International Statistical Symposium
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Transfer Regression and Predictive Distributions (2017)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang
  • Organizer: 10th Conference of the IASC-ARS/68th Annual NZSA Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Cell regression (2016)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang
  • Organizer: 数理統計ひこね2016
  • Place of Presentation: 滋賀大学彦根キャンパス（滋賀県・彦根市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-02
• [Presentation] Bayesian prediction based on profile-reference data (2016)
  • Author(s): Jinfang Wang
  • Organizer: The 22nd International Conference on Computational Statistics
  • Place of Presentation: Felipe, Oviedo, Spain
  • Year and Date: 2016-08-23
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] 一般化線形モデル （統計解析スタンダード） (2016)
  • Author(s): 汪 金芳
  • Total Pages: 212
  • Publisher: 朝倉書店