| Project/Area Number |
16K12828
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | Keio University |
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Principal Investigator |
Tanaka Ken-ichi 慶應義塾大学, 理工学部(矢上), 准教授 (90408724)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
鳥海 重喜 中央大学, 理工学部, 准教授 (60455441)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Keywords | 施設配置問題 / 数理最適化 / 避難モデル / 退避壕 / 火山災害 / 最適化 / 避難施設 / 最適化モデル / 時空間ネットワーク / 最適配置問題 / 数理モデル / 火山 / アルゴリズム |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In Japan, attention has been paid to the installation of shelters to protect people from rocks flying out of the crater when a volcanic eruption occurs. We propose optimization models to decide shelter site for protecting people from flying rocks in a mountain trail. First, the maxisum and maximin models are presented, where the former maximizes the expected number of people to be safely reach a shelter while the latter maximizes the smallest probability to be safely reach a shelter. We also present the set covering formulation that finds the minimum number of shelters by ensuring that every location receives a given level of safe evacuation. Furthermore, we propose dynamic site selection models that explicitly incorporate the fact that the risk to pass through each link of a network varies depending on the distance from the crater and the time elapsed from volcanic eruption.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
実際の現場において退避壕の具体的な配置計画を立てる際には，火山の特性，登山者や周辺住民の人口分布，予算総額などの，各事例に特化した様々な要因を考慮する必要がある．一方で，基礎となる数理モデルを構築した上で，最適な計画案を導くための枠組みを整備することも重要な課題であるが，こうした試みはこれまで十分になされてこなかった．本研究は，オペレーションズ・リサーチの分野で古くから研究されてきた，施設配置問題の枠組みを土台として，退避壕を適切に整備するための新しい問題を構築し，火山防災対策に資するための基礎となる数理モデル構築を行った．
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