Risk Score for prediction of NCD risk: a cohort study

• Project/Area Number: 16K13037
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Applied health science
• Research Institution: National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition
• Principal Investigator: GANDO Yuko 国立研究開発法人医薬基盤・健康・栄養研究所, 国立健康・栄養研究所 身体活動研究部, 室長 (60613932)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: 体力 / 疾病予防 / 妥当性 / 全身持久力 / 高血圧 / 脂質異常症 / 動脈硬化 / 体力測定 / 疾患発症予測

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study was to create a risk score providing an estimate of the incidence for hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Two cohorts were used for creating the risk score of hypertension (n=3261) and diabetes (n=10861). Scoring systems were created based on cox proportional hazards regression models for predicting hypertension and type 2 diabetes. During the observation period of 41031 person-years (average 17 years), 1581 people suffered from hypertension. During the observation period of 48052 person-years (average 4.4 years), 483 people suffered from type 2 diabetes.
Cardiorespiratory fitness, age, BMI, SBP, family history of hypertension, and alcohol habits predicted hypertension and constituted the risk score (AUC = 0.65 creation cohort, AUC = 0.69 validation cohort). Grip strength, flexibility test, age, BMI, SBP, and smoking habits predicted type 2 diabetes and constituted the risk score (AUC = 0.71 creation cohort, AUC = 0.69 validation cohort).

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、国内で実施されている体力測定の結果を用いて、疾病予測モデルを構築した。日本人を対象として、大規模な体力測定データを用いた疾病予測モデルはこれまでに報告されていない。日本では、子どもから高齢者まで、様々な機会に体力測定を実施しているため、今後は体力測定結果が健康リスクの予測としてより活用されるための研究を試みたい。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Physical Fitness Tests and Type 2 Diabetes Among Japanese: A Longitudinal Study From the Niigata Wellness Study (2019)
  • Author(s): Momma H, Sawada SS, Kato K, Gando Y, Kawakami R, Miyachi M, Huang C, Nagatomi R, Tashiro M, Ishizawa M, Kodama S, Iwanaga M, Fujihara K, Sone H
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 29 Issue: 4 Pages: 139-146
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20170280
  • NAID: 130007624295
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Year and Date: 2019-04-05
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Frequency of achieving a ‘fit’ cardiorespiratory fitness level and hypertension (2019)
  • Author(s): Momma Haruki、Sawada Susumu S.、Sloan Robert A.、Gando Yuko、Kawakami Ryoko、Miyachi Motohiko、Fukunaka Yasushi、Okamoto Takashi、Tsukamoto Koji、Nagatomi Ryoichi、Blair Steven N.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Hypertension Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Pages: 820-826
  • DOI: 10.1097/hjh.0000000000001935
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Relationship between Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Non-High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol: A Cohort Study (2018)
  • Author(s): Watanabe Natsumi、S. Sawada Susumu、Shimada Kazunori、Lee I-Min、Gando Yuko、Momma Haruki、Kawakami Ryoko、Miyachi Motohiko、Hagi Yumiko、Kinugawa Chihiro、Okamoto Takashi、Tsukamoto Koji、N. Blair Steven
  • Journal Title: Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis Volume: 25 Issue: 12 Pages: 1196-1205
  • DOI: 10.5551/jat.43851
  • NAID: 130007539353
  • ISSN: 1340-3478, 1880-3873
  • Year and Date: 2018-12-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Tracking of cardiorespiratory fitness in Japanese men (2018)
  • Author(s): Yamamoto Naofumi、Sawada Susumu S.、Lee I-Min、Gando Yuko、Kawakami Ryoko、Murakami Haruka、Miyachi Motohiko、Yoshitake Yutaka、Asai Hidenori、Okamoto Takashi、Tsukamoto Koji、Tanaka Hiroaki、Blair Steven N.
  • Journal Title: The Journal of Physical Fitness and Sports Medicine Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 25-33
  • DOI: 10.7600/jpfsm.7.25
  • NAID: 130006315846
  • ISSN: 2186-8123, 2186-8131
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Combined association of cardiorespiratory fitness and family history of hypertension on the incidence of hypertension: a long-term cohort study of Japanese males (2018)
  • Author(s): Gando Yuko、Sawada Susumu S.、Kawakami Ryoko、Momma Haruki、Shimada Kazunori、Fukunaka Yasushi、Okamoto Takashi、Tsukamoto Koji、Miyachi Motohiko、Lee I-Min、Blair Steven N.
  • Journal Title: Hypertension Research Volume: 41 Issue: 12 Pages: 1063-1069
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41440-018-0117-2
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The Association of Fit-Fat Index with Incident Diabetes in Japanese Men: A Prospective Cohort Study (2018)
  • Author(s): Sloan RA, Sawada SS, I-Min L, Gando Y, Kawakami R, Okamoto T, Tsukamoto K, Miyachi M
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 8 Pages: 569-569
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Consistently High Level of Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes (2017)
  • Author(s): Momma H, Sawada SS, Lee IM, Gando Y, Kawakami R, Terada S, Miyachi M, Kinugawa C, Okamoto T, Tsukamoto K, Huang C, Nagatomi R, Blair SN
  • Journal Title: Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise Volume: 49 Pages: 2048-2055
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Importance of Achieving a "Fit" Cardiorespiratory Fitness Level for Several Years on the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Japanese Cohort Study (2017)
  • Author(s): Momma H, Sawada SS, Sloan RA, Gando Y, Kawakami R, Terada S, Miyachi M, Kinugawa C, Okamoto T, Tsukamoto K, Huang C, Nagatomi R, Blair SN
  • Journal Title: J Epidemiol Volume: 印刷中
  • NAID: 130006732083
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Long-term Impact of Cardiorespiratory Fitness on Type 2 Diabetes Incidence: A Cohort Study of Japanese Men (2017)
  • Author(s): Kawakami R, Sawada SS, Lee IM, Gando Y, Momma H, Terada S, Kinugawa C, Okamoto T, Tsukamoto K, Higuchi M, Miyachi M, Blair SN
  • Journal Title: J Epidemiol Volume: 印刷中
  • NAID: 130006732099
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Cardiorespiratory fitness suppresses age-related arterial stiffening in healthy adults: A 2-year longitudinal observational study (2016)
  • Author(s): Gando Y, Murakami H, Kawakami R, Yamamoto K, Kawano H, Tanaka N, Sawada SS, Miyatake N, Miyachi M.
  • Journal Title: Journal of clinical hypertension Volume: 18 Pages: 292-298
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] 日本人における柔軟性と高血圧罹患の関係：コホート研究-niigata wellness study- (2018)
  • Author(s): 丸藤祐子, 澤田亨, 門間陽樹, 川上諒子, 宮地元彦, 田代稔, 加藤公則, 曽根博仁
  • Organizer: 第59回人間ドック学会学術大会
• [Presentation] Combined association of cardiorespiratory fitness and family history of hypertension on the incidence of hypertension (2018)
  • Author(s): Gando Y, Sawada SS, Kawakami R, Momma H, Shimada K, Fukunaka Y, Okamoto T, Tsukamoto K, Miyachi M, Lee I, Blair SN
  • Organizer: American College of Sports Medicine 65th Annual Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 全身持久力および高血圧家族歴と高血圧罹患の関係：日本人男性労働者を対象にした長期コホート研究 (2017)
  • Author(s): 丸藤祐子, 澤田亨, 川上諒子, 門間陽樹, 島田和典, 福中康志, 岡本隆史, 塚本浩二, 宮地元彦.
  • Organizer: 第27回日本疫学会
  • Place of Presentation: 山梨
  • Year and Date: 2017-01-20
• [Presentation] 全身持久力と脂質異常症の関係：日本人男性労働者を対象にした長期コホート研究 (2017)
  • Author(s): 丸藤祐子、澤田亨、渡邊夏海、門間陽樹、川上諒子、木庭新治、井上茂、絹川千尋、岡本隆史、塚本浩二、宮地元彦
  • Organizer: 第49回日本動脈硬化学会
• [Presentation] Poor trunk flexibility is associated with greater progression of age-related arterial stiffening: 5-year longitudinal study. (2016)
  • Author(s): Gando Y, Yamamoto K, Murakami H, Kawakami R, Ohno H, Sawada S, Miyatake N, Miyachi M.
  • Organizer: American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2016
  • Place of Presentation: New Orleans-USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-12
  • Int'l Joint Research