Flood quantile estimation by interpolation using pseudo-discharge data generated by a physically-based hydrologic model utilizing atmospheric re-analysis data

• Project/Area Number: 16K14309
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Yorozu Kazuaki 京都大学, 工学研究科, 講師 (90554212)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: 大気再解析データ / 分布型水循環モデル / 河川流量 / チャオプラヤ川 / ブミポンダム / 年最大日流量 / 擬似作成 / 土壌水分 / 大気再解析 / 超長期河川流量 / 模擬作成 / 100年確率流量

Outline of Final Research Achievements

For river planning and basin water resources management, it is necessary to determine the design water level which has long term return period. In general, observation record is shorter than that. Therefore, pseudo-discharge data is generated much enough to determine design level. There are many methods for generating pseudo-discharge data.
In this research, numerous atmospheric data was created by recombining both atmospheric reanalysis data and satellite based observed rainfall data as a data could be happened in actual situation. And then, Bhumibol dam inflow was calculated utilizing a distributed hydrologic model by those data. A histogram of annual maximum daily river discharge from generated long-term river discharge data was similar with that of original data.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

河川流量について，観測データは限られた年数しか得ることができない．そのため，河川計画に重要となる100年確率流量を外挿によって求めるしかなかった．しかし，本研究において，限られた年数しか存在しない気象データから，多数年におよぶ河川流量データを擬似的に作成する手法が提案された．

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Investigating the effect of initial soil moisture on river discharge using pseudo-discharge data generated by a distributed hydrologic model (2019)
  • Author(s): Kazuaki Yorozu, Yutaka Ichikawa and Yasuto Tachikawa
  • Journal Title: Proceedings of THA 2019 International Conference on Water Management and Climate Change towards Asia's Water-Energy-Food NEXUS and SDGs Volume: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 大気場の組み替えと分布型水循環モデルによる多数年におよぶ河川流量データ作成の研究 (2018)
  • Author(s): 萬和明, 黒崎直哉, 市川温, キムスンミン, 立川康人
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B1(水工学) Volume: 74
  • NAID: 130007628107
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Investigating the effect of initial soil moisture on river discharge using pseudo-discharge data generated by a distributed hydrologic model (2019)
  • Author(s): Kazuaki Yorozu, Yutaka Ichikawa and Yasuto Tachikawa
  • Organizer: THA2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 分布型水循環モデルで作成した疑似流量データによる確率流量の推定可能性 (2018)
  • Author(s): 萬和明，黒崎直哉，立川康人，田中智大，市川温，Kim Sunmin
  • Organizer: 水文・水資源学会 総会・研究発表会
• [Presentation] JRA-55と分布型水循環モデルを用いた多数年に及ぶ流量データの擬似作成の提案 (2016)
  • Author(s): 黒崎直哉，萬和明，立川康人，市川温
  • Organizer: 水文・水資源学会2016年度研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: コラッセふくしま
  • Year and Date: 2016-09-15
• [Presentation] 大気再解析データと分布型水循環モデルを用いた多数年におよぶ河川流量データの擬似作成に関する研究 (2016)
  • Author(s): 萬和明， 黒﨑直哉，市川温，立川康人
  • Organizer: 土木学会平成28年度全国大会第71回年次学術講演会
  • Place of Presentation: 東北大学川内北キャンパス
  • Year and Date: 2016-09-07