Developing a method to ascertain the end of an epidemic

• Project/Area Number: 16K15356
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Nishiura Hiroshi 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 教授 (70432987)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
• Keywords: 疫学 / 臨床統計学 / 予防医学 / 感染症流行 / 統計モデル / 数理モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The end of an epidemic has not necessarily been ascertained by science-based methods. The purpose of the present study was to develop an objective and quantitative method to verify the end of an epidemic. I used offspring distribution that describes the number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case and also the serial interval distribution to develop a mathematical model. The proposed model was applied to Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and Ebola virus disease epidemic data. This challenging project was tackled through applications to socially important diseases and the mathematical tool for valid policy making was polished through oral presentations in international conference and also submissions of original research articles.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Estimating the Asymptomatic Ratio of Norovirus Infection During Foodborne Outbreaks With Laboratory Testing in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Miura F, Matsuyama R, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 28 Issue: 9 Pages: 382-387
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20170040
  • NAID: 130007481555
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Year and Date: 2018-09-05
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017. (2018)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Akhmetzhanov AR, Endo A, Lee H, Yamaguchi T, Tsuzuki S, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: PeerJ Volume: － Pages: e4583-e4583
  • DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4583
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing the Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of Test-and-Vaccinate Policy for Supplementary Vaccination against Rubella with Limited Doses (2018)
  • Author(s): Saito MM, Ejima K, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: Int J Environ Res Public Health Volume: 15 Issue: 4 Pages: 572-572
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15040572
  • NAID: 120006522670
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Joint estimation of the transmissibility and severity of Ebola virus disease in real time. (2018)
  • Author(s): Asai Y, Nishiura H.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Biological Systems Volume: 25 Issue: 04 Pages: 587-603
  • DOI: 10.1142/s0218339017400022
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Recrudescence of Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa, 2014-2016 (2017)
  • Author(s): Lee H, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Infectious Diseases Volume: 64 Pages: 90-92
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2017.09.013
  • NAID: 120006373734
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016. (2017)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H, Mizumoto K, Asai Y.
  • Journal Title: Epidemics Volume: 未定 Pages: 67-72
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.03.005
  • NAID: 120006373735
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Miura F, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: PLOS ONE Volume: 12 Issue: 3 Pages: e0173996-e0173996
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173996
  • NAID: 120006219940
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Objective Determination of End of MERS Outbreak, South Korea, 2015 (2016)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K
  • Journal Title: Emerg Infect Dis Volume: 22 Issue: 1 Pages: 146-148
  • DOI: 10.3201/eid2201.151383
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A method to determine the end of MERS epidemic (2016)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: 第75回日本公衆衛生学会総会
  • Place of Presentation: グランフロント大阪（大阪府大阪市）
• [Presentation] Determining the end of an epidemic with human-to-human transmission (2016)
  • Author(s): Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: XXVIIIth International Biometric Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Victoria Convention Centre, Victoria, Canada
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] Disease Modelling and Public Health, Part A, Volume 36 (Chapter 6) (2017)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H
  • Total Pages: 15
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISBN: 9780444639684
• [Book] Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases (2016)
  • Author(s): Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Total Pages: 356
  • Publisher: Springer