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Clarification of genesis and development mechanism of cumulonimbus with the next-generation data assimilation and ensemble simulations

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K17804
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionJapan, Meteorological Research Institute

Principal Investigator

Yokota Sho  気象庁気象研究所, 気象観測研究部, 併任(第四研究室) (10723794)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords積乱雲 / データ同化 / アンサンブル予報 / 二重偏波レーダー / 赤外線カメラ / 気象学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Rainfalls generated from cumulonimbus were reproduced with the ensemble simulations by the data assimilation of dense observations (e.g., polarimetric radars), and it was shown that analyses based on the ensemble simulations can clarify the characteristics of atmospheric states that were suitable for the genesis of the rainfalls. Methods to improve rainfall forecasts were also suggested: radar data assimilation at points where rainfall forecasts are failed and assimilation of nonlinear physical values using iterative calculation of the nonlinear forecast model. Availability of atmospheric states in the lower layer observed by the infra-red camera was also examined.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で行ったアンサンブル予報に基づく降水の解析手法は、発生頻度が小さく複数の要因が考えられる複雑な気象現象を統計的に解析できる新しい手法として有用であり、学術的意義が大きい。また、本研究のアンサンブル予報に基づく解析で得られた降水の発生に適した大気場の特徴、本研究で提案した降水予測改善のための新しいデータ同化手法や赤外線カメラによる観測の利用などは、豪雨予測に向けた数値モデルやデータ同化手法の高度化に大きく寄与する。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (43 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Journal Article (6 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results) Presentation (36 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 18 results,  Invited: 4 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] データ同化とアンサンブル予報による竜巻発生過程の解析2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 新野宏, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋
    • Journal Title

      ながれ

      Volume: 38-1 Pages: 8-13

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 竜巻のアンサンブル予報2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 新野宏, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋
    • Journal Title

      気象研究ノート「竜巻を識る」

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 高解像度アンサンブル予報を用いた竜巻の発生要因の解析2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 新野宏, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 佐藤英一
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外「新野宏教授退職記念号」

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Improving Short-Term Rainfall Forecasts by Assimilating Weather Radar Reflectivity Using Additive Ensemble Perturbations2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and E. Sato
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 123 Issue: 17 Pages: 9047-9062

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018jd028723

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Important Factors for Tornadogenesis as Revealed by High-resolution Ensemble Forecasts of the Tsukuba Supercell Tornado of 6 May 2012 in Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      YOKOTA Sho、NIINO Hiroshi、SEKO Hiromu、KUNII Masaru、YAMAUCHI Hiroshi
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 146 Issue: 4 Pages: 1109-1132

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-17-0254.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 4DEnVar(4次元アンサンブル変分法)2017

    • Author(s)
      横田 祥
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 64.7 Pages: 523-526

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 4DEnVar with iterative nonlinear forecast model2020

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., K. Koizumi, M. Kunii, and K. Ito
    • Organizer
      The American Meteorological Society 100th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 非線形予報モデルを繰り返し計算する4DEnVarは非線形現象のデータ同化に有効か?2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 小泉耕, 国井勝, 伊藤耕介
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アンサンブルに基づく相互共分散行列の特異値分解による平成30年7月豪雨の解析2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Nonlinear data assimilation with 4DEnVar using iterative weather forecast model2019

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., K. Koizumi, M. Kunii, and K. Ito
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 平成30年7月豪雨のアンサンブル特異値分解解析2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘
    • Organizer
      第6回メソ気象セミナー
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] データ同化とアンサンブル予報を用いたスーパーセル竜巻の発生要因と予測に関する研究2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-based Singular Value Decomposition Analysis to Clarify Relationship between the Atmospheric State and the Hydrometeors2019

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, N. Nagumo, H. Yamauchi, R. Kudo, T. Sakai, Y. Shoji, T. Kawabata, Y. Ikuta, and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      7th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 4DEnVar with Iterative Calculation of Nonlinear Nonhydrostatic Model Compared to En4DVar2019

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., K. Koizumi, M. Kunii, and K. Ito
    • Organizer
      7th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 観測ビッグデータの同化による竜巻予測の高度化2019

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 新野宏, 國井勝, 山内洋, 佐藤英一
    • Organizer
      ポスト「京」重点課題4第3回成果報告会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] State-dependent additive covariance inflation for radar reflectivity assimilation2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and E. Sato
    • Organizer
      8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 局地的降水の発生に適した大気場のアンサンブル実験に基づく解析2018

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 南雲信宏, 山内洋, 工藤玲, 酒井哲, 小司禎教, 川畑拓矢, 幾田泰酵, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report 2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-based analysis for heavy rains and tornadoes in Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      横田祥
    • Organizer
      第5回メソ気象セミナー
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-based Singular Value Decomposition Analysis for a Local Rainfall Event Predicted by Water Vapor Assimilation2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, N. Nagumo, H. Yamauchi, R. Kudo, T. Sakai, Y. Shoji, T. Kawabata, Y. Ikuta, and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Important Factors for Tornadogenesis as Revealed by High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts of the Tsukuba F3 Tornado on 6 May 20122018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Niino, H. Seko, M. Kunii, and H. Yamauchi
    • Organizer
      29th Conference on Severe Local Storms
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 現業メソ同化システムを用いた4DVar, En4DVar, 4DEnVarの比較2018

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 小泉耕, 國井勝, 伊藤耕介
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 4DEnVar with Iterative Calculation of Nonlinear Nonhydrostatic Model Compared to En4DVar2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., K. Koizumi, M. Kunii, and K. Ito
    • Organizer
      5th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-based Singular Value Decomposition Analysis to Clarify Relationship between the Atmospheric State and the Hydrometeors2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, N. Nagumo, H. Yamauchi, R. Kudo, T. Sakai, Y. Shoji, T. Kawabata, Y. Ikuta, and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      5th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] State-dependent additive covariance inflation for radar reflectivity assimilation2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and E. Sato
    • Organizer
      The 6th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] State-dependent additive covariance inflation for radar reflectivity assimilation2018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and E. Sato
    • Organizer
      The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 4D-EnVAR with iterative calculation of non-linear model2017

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., M. Kunii, K. Aonashi, and S. Origuchi
    • Organizer
      RIKEN International Symposium on Data Assimilation / The 7th Japanese Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      理化学研究所計算科学研究機構(兵庫県神戸市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consideration of data assimilation for forecasting tornadoes using high-resolution ensemble forecasts2017

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      RIKEN International Symposium on Data Assimilation / The 7th Japanese Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      理化学研究所計算科学研究機構(兵庫県神戸市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Tornadogenesis as revealed by high-resolution ensemble forecasts for the Tsukuba city supercell tornado on 6 May 20122017

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Additional ensemble perturbations to correct the atmospheric field through assimilation of radar reflectivity2017

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and E. Sato
    • Organizer
      38th Conference on Radar Meteorology
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assimilation of radar reflectivity with EnKF: Additional ensemble perturbations to modify the atmospheric field2017

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi, and E. Sato
    • Organizer
      International Symposium on Earth-Science Challenges 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 降水が予測されていない位置へのレーダー反射強度の同化方法の提案2017

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 佐藤英一
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 降水が予測されていない位置にレーダー反射強度を同化する際の問題点とその解決法の提案2017

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 佐藤英一
    • Organizer
      第4回メソ気象セミナー
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 予報モデルを繰り返し計算する4DEnVar2017

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 國井勝, 青梨和正, 折口征二
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 雲解像アンサンブル実験による積乱雲の発生・発達機構の解明に向けて2017

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 南雲信宏, 山内洋, 工藤玲, 川畑拓矢, 幾田泰酵, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 竜巻の発生条件-データ同化と超高解像度アンサンブル予報による解析-2017

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      ポスト「京」重点課題4「観測ビッグデータを活用した気象と地球環境の予測の高度化」第1回「革新的な数値天気予報と被害レベル推定に基づく高度な気象防災」成果発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      秋葉原UDXギャラリーNEXT-1(東京都千代田区)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 竜巻を発生させた積乱雲群の再現-アンサンブル予測を用いた竜巻の発生要因の解明-2017

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      ポスト「京」重点課題4「観測ビッグデータを活用した気象と地球環境の予測の高度化」第1回成果報告会
    • Place of Presentation
      大手町サンスカイルーム(東京都千代田区)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 4D-EnVAR with iterative calculation of non-linear mode2016

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., M. Kunii, K. Aonashi, and S. Origuchi
    • Organizer
      Fourth International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Numerical Models
    • Place of Presentation
      ザ・プリンス箱根芦ノ湖(神奈川県箱根町)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-30
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] High-resolution ensemble experiments for the Tsukuba city supercell tornado in Japan on 6 May 20122016

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      28th Conference on Severe Local Storms
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton Portland & Executive Tower(米国ポートランド)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-07
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 超高解像度アンサンブル実験による竜巻と下層メソサイクロンの関係2016

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学東山キャンパス(愛知県名古屋市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 強い竜巻が発生するための条件-高解像度アンサンブル実験による解析-2016

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋, 新野宏
    • Organizer
      第3回メソ気象セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      静岡県男女共同参画センター「あざれあ」(静岡県静岡市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] メソアンサンブル予報を利用した顕著現象の解析2016

    • Author(s)
      國井勝, 横田祥
    • Organizer
      第9回気象庁数値モデル研究会・第44回メソ気象研究会・ 第2回観測システム予測可能性研究連絡会
    • Place of Presentation
      気象庁(東京都千代田区)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Data assimilation and ensemble forecasts for the 6 May 2012 Tsukuba city supercell tornado2016

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Seko, M. Kunii, H. Yamauchi and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      AORI-ISAC Workshop on Tornadoes and Supercells in Japan and Italy
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学大気海洋研究所(千葉県柏市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] 気象庁気象研究所 予報研究部 第二研究室 横田祥 研究官ページ

    • URL

      http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Member/fo/hoyokotashoyoko.html

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report 2017 Research-status Report 2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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