| Project/Area Number |
16K17810
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
Doi Takeshi 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), 研究員 (80638768)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥390,000 (Direct Cost: ¥300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥90,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | エルニーニョ予測 / 季節予測 / 自信過剰 / 貿易風の季節内変動 / 確率過程 / 東風バースト / エルニーニョ |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, the false alarm of 2014 El Nino is examined using the SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system. It is found that resolving the high-frequency zonal wind variability over the western tropical Pacific, including the strong easterly wind bursts in June-July 2014, is a key for correct prediction. To capture individual high-frequency wind events beyond the synoptic weather time-scales is a challenge by use of the current prediction model. However, by synthetically incorporating the stochastic forcing like easterly wind bursts into the prediction system, we have successfully kept the 2014 El Nino prediction within the expected uncertainty.
|
| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
エルニーニョ現象の予測について、誤検出しやすい問題を改善する方法を示した。すなわち、熱帯太平洋西部での東西風の季節内変動の発生を確率過程として予測シミュレーションに追加強制することで、2014年などの予測のハズレを回避することができることを示した。エルニーニョ現象の発生は、世界中で異常気象の引き金になるため、その予測の誤検出率を下げることができたことは学術的にも社会的も重要である。
|
