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Derivation of predictive distribution of bridge deterioration using maximum entropy theorem

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K18170
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
Research InstitutionEhime University

Principal Investigator

Chun Pang-jo  愛媛大学, 理工学研究科(工学系), 准教授 (60605955)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) Yoshii Toshio  愛媛大学, 理工学研究科(工学系), 教授 (90262120)
Research Collaborator Kusumoto Masahiro  
Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Keywordsリスク評価 / 地域都市計画 / 橋梁工学 / アセットマネジメント / 劣化予測
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research aims to improve the degradation prediction method required for bridge asset management. First, we investigated which parameters affect bridge degradation. As a result, it is found that the bridge deterioration is affected by the difference in the management organization. It is said that the distance from the coastal line affects very much, however, it is only a certain degree of influence according to the analysis of inspection data. Rather, it was suggested that initial defects may have a large effect on degradation.

To evaluate the tail risk of the bridge deterioraton, it is required to derive the detailed tail of the predicion distribution. We realize it by using hierarchical Bayesian model. As a result, it became possible to evaluate the tail risk as mentioned in the research plan, as well as to present the optimal inspection interval for each individual bridge.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (8 results)

All 2017 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Invited: 1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 橋梁の経年劣化の不確実性に対するロバスト最適補修計画モデル2017

    • Author(s)
      大窪 和明,全 邦釘
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・講演集

      Volume: 56 Pages: 65-72

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 地域アセットマネジメントにおける簡易点検手法の適用に関する一考察2017

    • Author(s)
      大窪 和明,全 邦釘,浅本 晋吾,岡崎 慎一郎
    • Journal Title

      第1回JAAM研究発表会論文集

      Volume: 1 Pages: 117-122

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 橋梁の劣化過程の地域性の解明と地域アセットマネジメント手法の提案2017

    • Author(s)
      全 邦釘,大窪 和明,浅本 晋吾,岡崎 慎一郎
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・講演集

      Volume: 55

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 橋梁の劣化過程の地域性の解明と地域アセットマネジメント手法の提案2017

    • Author(s)
      全 邦釘・大窪 和明・浅本 晋吾・岡崎 慎一郎
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究発表会講演論文集

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 階層ベイズを活用した橋梁劣化予測モデルの構築2017

    • Author(s)
      三島 和紀,Debri Hasian Harianja,石水 貴久,全 邦釘
    • Organizer
      土木学会四国支部技術研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 愛媛大学におけるインフラ維持管理の取り組み2017

    • Author(s)
      全 邦釘
    • Organizer
      平成28年度全国アセットマネジメント担当者会議
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] ゼロ過剰特性を加味した橋梁の劣化予測モデルの構築2017

    • Author(s)
      北川 健,Debri Harianja,全 邦釘
    • Organizer
      土木学会四国支部技術研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 研究内容

    • URL

      http://www.cee.ehime-u.ac.jp/~i_management/research.html

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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