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Development of probabilistic model for risk assessment of energy conservation in building equipment

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K18198
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Architectural environment/Equipment
Research InstitutionKogakuin University

Principal Investigator

Togashi Eisuke  工学院大学, 建築学部(公私立大学の部局等), 准教授 (00547078)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Keywords省エネルギー / 建築設備 / 不確実性 / リスク / アンケート / 金融工学 / 不動産価値 / 不動産 / 省エネ投資 / 確率モデル / オフィス / エネルギー / 執務者 / 内部負荷 / 事務所 / webアンケート
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this research, we investigated "the state of use of real building" which is the source of the uncertainty of the building facility system with the aim of developing a probability model of the building use condition which is very important for risk evaluation .

By conducting questionnaires to officials and building managers, we investigated the uncertainty from both the user side and the administrative side of the building and developed a probabilistic model. By combining both models and applying the Monte Carlo method to the energy simulation model of the building, it was possible to express the effect of energy conservation investment as a probability distribution. With regard to this research, we have posted three refereed articles, two of which have been adopted and one by peer review.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2018 2017

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] 設備システムの省エネルギー化が不動産価値に与える影響の定量的評価方法に関する研究 第4報-テナント属性の確率モデルの開発2018

    • Author(s)
      富樫英介
    • Journal Title

      空気調和・衛生工学会論文集

      Volume: 253 Pages: 1-7

    • NAID

      130007624138

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effect of Energy Conservation Technology on Value of Real Estate2017

    • Author(s)
      富樫英介
    • Journal Title

      Transactions of the Society of Heating,Air-conditioning and Sanitary Engineers of Japan

      Volume: 42 Issue: 240 Pages: 9-18

    • DOI

      10.18948/shase.42.240_9

    • NAID

      130006434109

    • ISSN
      0385-275X, 2424-0486
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report 2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 熱負荷計算のためのテナント属性の確率モデルの開発2017

    • Author(s)
      富樫英介
    • Organizer
      第51回 空気調和・冷凍連合講演会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京海洋大学 海洋工学部85周年記念会館
    • Year and Date
      2017-04-19
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 熱負荷計算のためのテナント属性の確率モデルの開発2017

    • Author(s)
      富樫英介
    • Organizer
      第51回空気調和・冷凍連合講演会講演論文集
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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