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Probabilistic forecasting of rice growth condition by synthesizing ensemble meteorological forecast and crop model

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K18775
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Agricultural environmental engineering/Agricultural information engineering
Research InstitutionFukushima University

Principal Investigator

Yoshida Ryuhei  福島大学, 共生システム理工学類, 准教授 (70701308)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywords確率予報 / 気象予測 / 水稲生育モデル / アンサンブル予測 / 冷害予測 / アンサンブル予報 / 東北地方 / 水稲生育シミュレーション / 農業気象
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Summer cold damage for rice crop was simulated by using meteorological ensemble forecast and rice growth model. Taking Tohoku as an example, three types of forecasts were applied; climatological forecast that composed from historical observations, single deterministic meteorological forecast, and ensemble forecast with nine members. For surface temperature, the single forecast performed better than the climatological forecast for five days, and the ensemble forecast prolonged the period by two days. The cooling-degree days, accumulated temperature from the threshold, was simulated better in both single and ensemble forecasts throughout the 14-days of forecast period. The amplitude of daily temperature was comparable among the three forecasts, but the temporal pattern in the climatological forecast was quite differ from the observation, which deteriorated its performance. Reproducibility of temporal pattern was essential to improve forecasting skill in cold damage estimation.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地球温暖化の進行が懸念される今後において,気温の上昇のためヤマセは深刻な問題にはならないと期待される.しかし,多くの先行研究でヤマセは今後も継続して発生しうると指摘されている.さらに,温暖化に伴いリスクが高まると推定される高温不稔率は低温不稔率よりも依然として低く,東北地方は引き続き低温に対する警戒が求められる.本研究は,これまで定性的な表現にとどまっていた冷害予測に対して定量的な予測実験を行い,数値予報に基づく冷害予測の有用性を明らかにした.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (17 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Applicability of meteorological ensemble forecasting to predict summer cold damage in rice growth2020

    • Author(s)
      Ryuhei Yoshida, Shin Fukui, Shin Fukui, and Takeshi Yamazaki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Agricultural Meteorology

      Volume: -

    • NAID

      130007872066

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 気象・気候データの農業分野における利活用2020

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平
    • Organizer
      農業学習カレッジ 農業経営講演会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] マルチモデルアンサンブルによる我が国の洋上風力資源の将来予測2019

    • Author(s)
      小野崎大武,嶋田進,吉田龍平
    • Organizer
      第41回風力エネルギー利用シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 極端な高温による不作の発生に温暖化が与えた影響2019

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平,飯泉仁之直
    • Organizer
      第16回ヤマセ研究会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 全球モデルアンサンブルによる日本の洋上風力資源の気候変動リスク評価2019

    • Author(s)
      小野崎大武,嶋田進,吉田龍平
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 過去の気候変動が世界の作物生産に与えた影響2019

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平,飯泉仁之直
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 農業気象災害は過去の気候変動でどう変化してきたか?2019

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平,飯泉仁之直
    • Organizer
      日本農業気象学会2019年全国大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動が米生産にあたえる質と量の変化の評価2019

    • Author(s)
      西原是良,高橋大輔,福井眞,吉田龍平,玉城絵美
    • Organizer
      2019年度日本農業経済学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Assessment of future global crop failure for maize and soybeans based on the DSSAT simulation2018

    • Author(s)
      Ryuhei Yoshida, Masashi Okada, Masayuki Yokozawa
    • Organizer
      AGU 2018 fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 気候の不安定化が世界の食料安全保障に与える影響の評価2018

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平,横沢正幸
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] valuation of the Economic Effect of Climate Change on Rice Production in Japan: The Case of Koshihikari2018

    • Author(s)
      Yukinaga Nishihara, Daisuke Takahashi, Shin Fukui, Ryuhei Yoshida, Emi Tamaki
    • Organizer
      30th international conference of agricultural economists
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 気候変動を背景としたコメ収量変動の将来変化と適応策の立案2018

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平, 福井眞
    • Organizer
      日本農業気象学会2018年度全国大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動に伴うコメ収量の安定性の評価2018

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平
    • Organizer
      第14回ヤマセ研究会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 品種別シミュレーションに基づく冷害の予測可能性2017

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平, 福井眞, 福井真
    • Organizer
      日本農業気象学会2017年全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      青森県十和田市
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 大規模アンサンブル水稲生育シミュレーションによる気候変動に伴うコメ生産の安定性の評価2017

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平, 福井眞
    • Organizer
      気象学会東北支部研究会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動に伴うコメの安定生産に向けた適応策の検討2017

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平, 福井眞
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 高解像度アンサンブル気象データを用いた冷害の発生予測2016

    • Author(s)
      吉田龍平, 福井眞, 福井真
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      愛知県名古屋市
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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