Probabilistic forecasting of rice growth condition by synthesizing ensemble meteorological forecast and crop model
| Project/Area Number |
16K18775
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Agricultural environmental engineering/Agricultural information engineering
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| Research Institution | Fukushima University |
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Principal Investigator |
Yoshida Ryuhei 福島大学, 共生システム理工学類, 准教授 (70701308)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | 確率予報 / 気象予測 / 水稲生育モデル / アンサンブル予測 / 冷害予測 / アンサンブル予報 / 東北地方 / 水稲生育シミュレーション / 農業気象 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Summer cold damage for rice crop was simulated by using meteorological ensemble forecast and rice growth model. Taking Tohoku as an example, three types of forecasts were applied; climatological forecast that composed from historical observations, single deterministic meteorological forecast, and ensemble forecast with nine members. For surface temperature, the single forecast performed better than the climatological forecast for five days, and the ensemble forecast prolonged the period by two days. The cooling-degree days, accumulated temperature from the threshold, was simulated better in both single and ensemble forecasts throughout the 14-days of forecast period. The amplitude of daily temperature was comparable among the three forecasts, but the temporal pattern in the climatological forecast was quite differ from the observation, which deteriorated its performance. Reproducibility of temporal pattern was essential to improve forecasting skill in cold damage estimation.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
地球温暖化の進行が懸念される今後において，気温の上昇のためヤマセは深刻な問題にはならないと期待される．しかし，多くの先行研究でヤマセは今後も継続して発生しうると指摘されている．さらに，温暖化に伴いリスクが高まると推定される高温不稔率は低温不稔率よりも依然として低く，東北地方は引き続き低温に対する警戒が求められる．本研究は，これまで定性的な表現にとどまっていた冷害予測に対して定量的な予測実験を行い，数値予報に基づく冷害予測の有用性を明らかにした．
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(17 results)
