| Project/Area Number |
16KK0057
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| Research Category |
Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Public economy
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| Research Institution | Kobe University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Research Collaborator |
Glazer Amihai カリフォルニア大学アーバイン校, Department of Economics, Professor
Yoshioka Kai Lance
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016 – 2018
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
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| Keywords | 公共投資 / 政治経済学 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
First, we examine the relationship between public investment by local governments and fluctuations in the regional economy in Japan.The empirical results show that the local public investment decided by political factors does not necessarily amplify the fluctuations in prefectural business cycles. Also, we examine the effects of government investment on private capital formation, considering both regional and sectoral distinctions in Japan. The empirical results show that a crowding-out effect is observed in rural areas for several industries that contribute to regional economic growth.
In addition to these two researches, we examine the effects of public investment on stock returns using Japanese cross-industry data. The empirical results show that public investment shocks have strong and stimulating effects on stock returns when the nominal interest rate is at the zero lower bound while negative responses dominate outside of the ZLB period.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
まず，公共投資の地域経済効果を巡っては，政治的な理由から公共投資が地方に重点的に配分されてきたことを踏まえるならば，政策担当者の意図に反した結果が得られたと結論付けられる．とりわけ，経済成長を支える部門について民間投資の阻害効果が示された点については，地方活性化を唱えて行ったはずの公共投資が，成長に寄与する部門の投資を阻害したことを示すものであり，長期的には地方経済の低迷にもつながることを示唆するものである．
次に公共投資と株式投資収益率との関係については，日本の過去の景気刺激策としての公共投資政策が，株式市場の活性化という点では適切でなかったことを示唆するものである．
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