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Development of Integrated Forecasting System of Trade and Traffic Flow and Policy Evaluation for International Transport Infrastructure in the era of Economic Integration in Asia

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17310092
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

IEDA Hitoshi  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor (90168089)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) YOSHIDA Tsuneaki  The University of Tokyo, Graducate School of Frontier Sciences, Professor (20292881)
OKAMOTO Nobuhiro  Daito Bunka University, Faculty of International Relations, Associate Professor (00433863)
WATANABE Tomihiro  The University of Tokyo, National Institute for Land・Infrastructure and Management・Port and Harbour Department, Head of Port Systems Division (10356040)
SHIBASAKI Ryuichi  The University of Tokyo, National Institute for Land・Infrastructure and Management・Port and Harbour Department, Senior Researcher (50323514)
ISHIKURA Tomoki  The University of Tokyo, National Institute for Land・Infrastructure and Management・Airport Department, Senior Researcher (30356050)
阿部 一知  東京電機大学, 工学部, 教授 (60339067)
Project Period (FY) 2005 – 2007
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥3,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥7,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,100,000)
KeywordsAsian Economics / Economic Partnership / International Transport Infrastructure / Free Trade Agreement / Trade Forecasting / Logistics Modeling / International Passenger Flow Modeling / International Maritime Container Cargo
Research Abstract

Our research results are as follows;
1) Multi-regional International Input-Output Table was developed, especially focusing in Japan and China.
2) By incorporating the developed I-O Table in 1) into existing trade forecasting model (i.e. GTAP model), impacts of various international economic and transport polices such as FTA and infrastructure investment on each Japanese and Chinese region were measured.
3) Commodities were classified based on each commodity's characteristics on unit price of cargo and share by transport mode.
4) International maritime cargo flow model was developed.
5) Possibility of international RORO ship transport in East Asia was analyzed.
6) International passenger flow model was developed.
7) By extending and applying the model developed in 4), international transport policy simulations were examined for China and Mekong River Area.
Throughout this series of researches such as model development for trade forecasting and international freight flow, integration of these models, and policy simulation and analyses, the integrated system to measure impacts quantitatively of international economic policies such as FTA and international transport policies such as infrastructure investment on trade and transport flow pattern for each country in East Asia including Japan.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2007 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2006 Annual Research Report
  • 2005 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All 2007 2006 2005

All Journal Article (11 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (10 results)

  • [Journal Article] Impact Of Chinese Port Policy Using The Model For International Container Cargo Simulation2007

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAKI
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 7

      Pages: 1083-1098

    • NAID

      130004588427

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact Of Chinese Port Policy Using The Model For International Container Cargo Simulation2007

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Yauso KANNAMI, Hitoshi ONODERA, Jiaqi LI, Lixin MIAO
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 7

      Pages: 1083-1098

    • NAID

      130004588427

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Impact Of Chinese Port Policy Using The Model For International Container Cargo Simulat2007

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Yauso KANNAMI, Hitoshi ONODERA, Jiaqi LI, Lixin MIAO
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 7

      Pages: 1083-1098

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 東アジア航空ネットワ-クにおける国際航空旅客流動分析のためのモデル開発2006

    • Author(s)
      石倉智樹
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・論文集 23(2)

      Pages: 479-488

    • NAID

      130004039485

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Practical Modeling of International Air Passenger Flow in the East Asia2006

    • Author(s)
      Tomoki ISHIKURA
    • Journal Title

      Infrastructure Planning Review 23(2)

      Pages: 479-488

    • NAID

      130004039485

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 東アジア航空ネットワークにおける国際航空旅客流動分析のためのモデル開発2006

    • Author(s)
      石倉智樹
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・論文集 23(2)

      Pages: 479-488

    • NAID

      130004039485

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] An Estimation Of The International Container Shipping Transport Volumes Among Asian Countries By Global Trade Analysis Project Model And Its Applications On FTA And Transport Improvement Scenarios2005

    • Author(s)
      Liqiang MA
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studie 6

      Pages: 920-935

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An Estimation Of The International Container Shipping Transport Volumes Among Asian Countries By Global Trade Analysis Project Model And Its Applications On FTA And Transport Improvement Scenarios2005

    • Author(s)
      Liqiang MA, Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Takashi KADONO, Tomoki ISHIKURA, Hitoshi IEDA
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 6

      Pages: 920-935

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] AN ESTIMATION OF INTERNATIONAL MARITIME CONTAINER VOLUME AMONG ASIAN COUNTRIES BY GTAP MODEL AND SIMULATION ON FTA AND TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT SCENARIO2005

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Liqiang MA, Takashi KADONO, Tomoki ISHIKURA, Hitoshi IEDA
    • Journal Title

      8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lubeck, Germany, 2005.6

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] REGIONAL BASED INTERNATIONAL MARITIME CONTAINER CARGO FLOW ESTIMATION BETWEEN EAST ASIAN NATIONS2005

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Liqiang MA, Yasuo KANNAMI, Hitoshi IEDA, Takashi KADONO
    • Journal Title

      1st International Conference on Transportation Logistics, Singapore, 2005.7

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 東アジアの航空ネットワークにおける国際航空旅客流動に関する分析2005

    • Author(s)
      石倉 智樹
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・講演集 No.32

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] International Roro Transport Market Potential Analysis Under The Seamless Asian Logistic Network2007

    • Author(s)
      家田 仁
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Transportation Logistics
    • Place of Presentation
      中国清華大学
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Inter-Asian Economic Partnerships and Their Impacts on International Cargo Flows-Methodologies-2007

    • Author(s)
      米本 清
    • Organizer
      ARSC日中セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      中国・北京市
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report 2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Model Expansion Of International Container Cargo Simulation For Cross-Border Transport Policy In Southeast Asia2007

    • Author(s)
      柴崎 隆一
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Transportation Logistics
    • Place of Presentation
      中国清華大学
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report 2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Impact Of Chinese Port Policy Using The Model For International Container Carso Simulation2007

    • Author(s)
      柴崎 隆一
    • Organizer
      7th International Conference of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
    • Place of Presentation
      中国大連海事大学
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Inter-Asian Economic Partnerships and Their Impacts on International Cargo Flows - Methodologies2007

    • Author(s)
      Kiyoshi YONEMOTO
    • Organizer
      ARSC Japan-China Seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      Beijing, China
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Impact Of Chinese Port Policy Using The Model For International Container Cargo Simulation2007

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAHI
    • Organizer
      7th International Conference of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,
    • Place of Presentation
      Dalian Maritime University, China
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] International RORO Transport Market Potential Analysis Under The Seamless Asian Logistic Network2007

    • Author(s)
      Hitoshi IEDA
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Transportation Logistics
    • Place of Presentation
      Shenzhen Graduate School of Tsinghua University, China
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Model Expansion Of International Container Cargo Simulation For Cross-Border Transport Policy In Southeast Asia2007

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAKI
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Transportation Logistics
    • Place of Presentation
      Graduate School of Tsinghua University, China
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Impact Of Chinese Port Policy Using The Model For International Container Cargo Simulation2007

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Yauso KANNAMI, Hitoshi ONODERA, Iiaqi LI, Lixin MIAO
    • Organizer
      7th International Confbrence of the Eastern Asia Society fbr Transportatio
    • Place of Presentation
      中国大連海事大学
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] International Roro Transport Market Potential Analysis Under The Seamless Asian Logistic2007

    • Author(s)
      Hitoshi IEDA, Liqiang MA, Ryota KIZUSHI
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Transportation Logistics
    • Place of Presentation
      中国清華大学
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2005-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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