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Development of short-period strong motion prediction method considering medium heterogeneity and application for great subduction zone earthquakes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17560527
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Building structures/materials
Research InstitutionResearch Institute of Shimizu Construction Co.

Principal Investigator

SATOH Toshimi  Research Institute of Shimizu Construction Co., Institute of Technology, Shimizu Corporation, Senior Researcher (00393562)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) KAWASE Hiroshi  Kyushu University, Faculty of Human-Environment Studies, Dept. of Architecture and Urban Design, Professor (30311856)
Project Period (FY) 2005 – 2007
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,010,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Keywordsstrong motion / subduction-zone earthquake / statistical Green's function method / empirical Green's function method / building damage / Miyagiken-oki earthquake / Nankai earthquake / heterogeneity / 環境負荷 / 距離減衰 / 強震動予測 / 短周期地震動 / 巨大地震 / 震源インバージョン / 被害予測 / エンベロープ
Research Abstract

Long-period strong motions have been in the spotlight since the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake. During great subduction-zone earthquakes, however, short-period strong motions would be also big and so short-period structures would be damaged. Therefore we develop an advanced statistical Green's function method to predict short-period strong motions more accurately. For source effects, we develop a method to invert a characterized source model by adding restrictions based on so-called strong motion prediction recipe and apply the method to the 2005 west off Fukuoka prefecture earth-quake and the 2005 Miyagiken-oki earthquake. We also consider the heterogeneity in each asperity of the source model and predict broadband strong motions for hypothesized Nankai earthquake. For path effects, we construct an envelope model based on a scattering theory to introduce the effects of medium heterogeneity into short-period strong motions.
Then we apply the developed method to strong motion prediction for hypothesized Miyagiken-oki earthquake and Nankai earthquake. In addition we predict building damage ratio of short-period structures such as ordinary wooden houses and low-rise rein-forced-concrete buildings and environmental burden using predicted strong motions for the Nankai earthquake.
Strong motions mentioned above are horizontal components for S-wave. In this study we extend the statistical Green's function method in order to reasonably predict strong motions of both horizontal and vertical components for both P and S waves. We also develop empirical attenuation relations of both horizontal and vertical components for both P and S waves to verify the Green's functions or predicted strong motions.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2007 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2006 Annual Research Report
  • 2005 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (49 results)

All 2008 2007 2006 2005

All Journal Article (31 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 9 results) Presentation (18 results)

  • [Journal Article] 想定南海地震の予測被害率から推定される環境負荷とそれに対する耐震施策の支える影響2008

    • Author(s)
      包 那仁満都拉・川瀬博
    • Journal Title

      総合論文誌 地球環境と防災のフロンティア 6

      Pages: 87-92

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Damage prediction and earthquake risk management strategy for environmental load caused by the next Nankai earthquake2008

    • Author(s)
      Ho, Narenmandula and H. Kawase
    • Journal Title

      New Frontiers in Urban and Regional Design for Addressing Global Environmental Issues and Disaster Mitigation, Architectural Institute of Japan 6

      Pages: 87-92

    • NAID

      110006614182

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 想定南海地震の予測被害率から推定される環境負荷とそれに対する耐震施策の支える影響2008

    • Author(s)
      包 那仁満都拉・川瀬博
    • Journal Title

      総合論文誌 6

      Pages: 87-92

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 統計的グリーン関数の最大加速度・最大速度の距離減衰特性2007

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Journal Title

      日本地震工学会論文集 7巻、6号

      Pages: 1-16

    • NAID

      130004000196

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Attenuation of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity of statistical Green's function2007

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering 7, No.6

      Pages: 1-16

    • NAID

      130004000196

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 統計的グリーン関数の最大加速度・最大速度の距離減衰特性2007

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Journal Title

      日本地震工学会論文集 7

      Pages: 1-16

    • NAID

      130004000196

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] フィリピン海プレートの海溝型地震による短周期地震動の散乱理論に基づく経時特性モデル2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Journal Title

      日本建築学会構造系論文集 601

      Pages: 75-82

    • NAID

      110004839924

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Simulation of strong motions in Fukuoka City during the 2005 West Off Fukuoka Prefecture Earthquake with special reference to thick Quaternary sediments around the Kego fault2006

    • Author(s)
      Toshimi Satoh, Hiroshi Kawase
    • Journal Title

      Earth Planets and Space 58

      Pages: 105-110

    • NAID

      10024491038

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 経験的グリーン関数法に基づく2005年福岡県西方沖地震の特性化震源モデルの推定2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美・川瀬博
    • Journal Title

      第12回日本地震工学シンポジウム

      Pages: 170-173

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 統計的グリーン関数による想定南海地震の強震動予測及びそれによる建物被害推定2006

    • Author(s)
      包 那仁満都拉・・川瀬博
    • Journal Title

      第12回日本地震工学シンポジウム

      Pages: 178-181

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 中央防災会議の東海・東南海・南海連動型地震の予測強震動から推定されるRC構造物の被害予測に関する研究2006

    • Author(s)
      チタク・セチキン・オズグル, 川瀬博
    • Journal Title

      第12回日本地震工学シンポジウム

      Pages: 354-357

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 長周期地震動予測のための統計的グリーン関数2006

    • Author(s)
      包 那仁満都拉・川瀬博
    • Journal Title

      月刊地球号外「巨大地震による長周期地震動-予測と今後の対応策」 55

      Pages: 119-127

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] RC造超高層建物の簡易モデル化と応答解析事例2006

    • Author(s)
      川瀬博・金治寿
    • Journal Title

      月刊地球号外「巨大地震による長周期地震動-予測と今後の対応策」 55

      Pages: 196-203

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Envelope model of short-period ground motions for earthquakes caused by subducting Philippine sea plate based on scattering theory2006

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of structural and construction engineering, Transactions of Architectural Institute of Japan 601

      Pages: 75-82

    • NAID

      110004839924

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Simulation of strong motions in Fukuoka City during the 2005 West Off Fukuoka Prefecture Earthquake with special reference to thick Quaternary sediments around the Kego fault2006

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T. and H.Kawase.
    • Journal Title

      Earth Planets and Space 58

      Pages: 105-110

    • NAID

      10024491038

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of characteristic source model of the 2005 west off Fukuoka prefecture earthquake based on empirical Green's function method2006

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T. and H. Kawase.
    • Journal Title

      Proc. 12th Japan Earthquake Engineering Symposium

      Pages: 170-173

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Building Damage Estimation and Strong Motion Prediction using Statistical Green's Functions for a Hypothesized Nankai Earthquake2006

    • Author(s)
      Ho, Narenmandula and H. Kawase
    • Journal Title

      Proc. 12th Japan Earthquake Engineering Symposium

      Pages: 178-181

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Study on damage estimation of RC structuresfor strong motion predicted by the Central Disaster Prevention Council for Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai earthquake2006

    • Author(s)
      Citak, S. O. and H. Kawase
    • Journal Title

      Proc. 12th Japan Earthquake Engineering Symposium

      Pages: 354-357

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Statistical Green's functions for long-period strong motion prediction2006

    • Author(s)
      Ho, Narenmandula and H. Kawase
    • Journal Title

      Chikyu Monthly, Special Edition 55

      Pages: 119-127

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Simplified modeling of Hi Rise Reinforced Concrete Buildings their Dynamic Response Analyses2006

    • Author(s)
      Kawase, H. and C. Kim
    • Journal Title

      Chikyu Monthly, Special Edition 55

      Pages: 196-203

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 経験的グリーン関数法に基づく2005年宮城県沖の地震の震源モデルの推定2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Journal Title

      日本地震学会講演予稿集

      Pages: 189-189

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 経験的グリーン関数法に基づく2005年福岡県西方沖地震の特性 化震源モデルの推定2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美, 川瀬博
    • Journal Title

      第12回日本地震工学シンポジウム

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 統計的グリーン関数による想定南海地震の強振動予測及びそれによる建物被害推定2006

    • Author(s)
      包 那仁満都拉, 川瀬 博
    • Journal Title

      第12回日本地震工学シンポジウム

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 長周期地震動予測のための統計的グリーン関数2006

    • Author(s)
      包 那仁満都拉, 川瀬 博
    • Journal Title

      巨大地震による長周期地震動-予測と今後の対応策(月刊地球号外) No.55

      Pages: 119-127

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] RC造超高層建物の簡易モデル化と応答解析事例2006

    • Author(s)
      川瀬博, 金治寿
    • Journal Title

      巨大地震による長周期地震動-予測と今後の対応策(月刊地球号外) No.55

      Pages: 196-203

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Strong motion prediction using statistical Green's functions and damage prediction based on nonlinear structural models2006

    • Author(s)
      Narenmandula Ho, Hiroshi Kawase
    • Journal Title

      Proc. of First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Geneva, Switzerland

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 伝播経路モデルの与え方2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Journal Title

      日本建築学会 第34回地盤震動シンポジウム

      Pages: 23-34

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] High-stress drop interplate and intraplate earthquakes occurred off shore of Miyagi prefecture, Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Toshimi Satoh
    • Journal Title

      Proc.of third International Symposium on the Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion, Grenoble, France

      Pages: 689-698

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Simulation of strong motions in Fukuoka City during the 2005 West Off Fukuoka Prefecture Earthquake with special reference to thick Quaternary sediments around the Kego fault2006

    • Author(s)
      Toshimi Satoh
    • Journal Title

      Earth Planets and Space Vol.58 No.1

      Pages: 105-110

    • NAID

      10024491038

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] フィリピン海プレートの海溝型地震による短周期地震動の散乱理論に基づく経時特性モデル2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Journal Title

      日本建築学会構造系論文集 第601号

      Pages: 75-82

    • NAID

      110004839924

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 2005年8月16日の宮城県沖の地震の短周期レベルと強震観測点での地盤増幅特性2005

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Journal Title

      日本地震学会講演予稿集

      Pages: 302-302

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 三成分広帯域統計的グリーン関数生成方法の高度化と観測波形による検証2007

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本地震工学会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学地震研究所
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-14
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 三成分広帯域統計的グリーン関数生成方法の高度化と観測波形による検証2007

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本地震工学会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学地震研究所
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-14
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Development of generation method of broadband statistical Green's functions for three-component ground motions and verification the method using observed records2007

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T
    • Organizer
      The 5th annual meeting of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-11
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 3成分広帯域統計的グリーン関数の生成方法に関する研究2007

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      仙台国際センター
    • Year and Date
      2007-10-26
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Generation method of broadband statistical Green's functions for three-component ground motions2007

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T
    • Organizer
      Fall meeting, Seismological Society of Japan
    • Place of Presentation
      Sendai, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2007-10-26
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 3成分広帯域統計的グリーン関数の生成方法に関する研究2007

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会
    • Place of Presentation
      仙台国際センター
    • Year and Date
      2007-10-26
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 伝播経路モデルの与え方2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本建築学会 第34回地盤震動シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      東京(建築会館)
    • Year and Date
      2006-11-30
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Path model for strong motion prediction2006

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T.
    • Organizer
      The 30th Symposium of Earthquake Ground Motion
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2006-11-30
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 経験的グリーン関数法に基づく2005年宮城県沖の地震の震源モデルの推定2006

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋国際会議場
    • Year and Date
      2006-10-31
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Estimation of source spectra of the 2005 Miyagi-oki earthquake based on empirical Green's function method2006

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T.
    • Organizer
      Fall meeting, Seismological Society of Japan
    • Place of Presentation
      Sendai, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2006-10-31
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] High-stress drop interplate and intraplate earthquakes occurred off shore of Miyagi prefecture, Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Toshimi Satoh
    • Organizer
      Third International Symposium on the Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion
    • Place of Presentation
      Grenoble,France
    • Year and Date
      2006-09-01
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] High-stress drop interplate and intraplate earthquakes occurred off shore of Miyagi prefecture, Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T.
    • Organizer
      Third International Symposium on the Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion
    • Year and Date
      2006-09-01
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Strong motion prediction using statistical Green's functions and damage prediction based on nonlienear structural models2006

    • Author(s)
      Narenmandula Ho and Hiroshi Kawase
    • Organizer
      First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology
    • Place of Presentation
      Geneva,Switzerland
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Strong motion prediction using statistical Green's functions and damage prediction based on nonlinear structural models2006

    • Author(s)
      Ho, Narenmandula and H. Kawase
    • Organizer
      First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] フィリピン海プレートの地震による加速度波形の散乱理論に基づくエンベロープモデル2005

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学
    • Year and Date
      2005-10-21
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Envelope model of acceleration ground motions for earthquakes caused by subducting Philippine sea plate based on scattering theory2005

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T.
    • Organizer
      Fall meeting, Seismological Society of Japan
    • Place of Presentation
      Sendai, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2005-10-21
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 2005年8月16日の宮城県沖の地震の短周期レベルと強震観測点での地盤増幅特性2005

    • Author(s)
      佐藤智美
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学
    • Year and Date
      2005-10-20
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Short-period level of acceleration source spectra and site responses at strong motion stations during the 2005/8/16 Miyagi-oki earthquake2005

    • Author(s)
      Satoh, T.
    • Organizer
      Fall meeting, Seismological Society of Japan
    • Place of Presentation
      Sendai, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2005-10-20
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary

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Published: 2005-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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