| Project/Area Number |
17580192
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Agro-economics
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
SAITO Katsuhiro The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, Associate Professor (80225698)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
塚田 和也 東京大学, 大学院農学生命科学研究科, 助手 (80323476)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2005 – 2007
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,970,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
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| Keywords | Agricultural Trade Policy / Price Fluctuation in agricultural commodity / Bio-Ethanol Policy / Quantitative Partial Equilibrium Model of Agricultural Commodity / Applied General Equilibrium Model / Lower Mekong Basin Countries / バイオ燃料政策 / 穀物の国際価格変動 / 途上国の貧困削減 / 農産物貿易政策 / 国内農業政策 / 収量変動リスク / セーフガードの産業保護政策 / 価格変動リスク / 乳製品成分アプローチ / ラオスの産業連関分析 / ベトナムのコメ輸出 / 自由貿易協定 / 農産物貿易の関税削減 / 生産要素の国際移動 / 経済厚生 |
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| Research Abstract |
Partial equilibrium model for evaluating agricultural support policies quantitatively was constructed in this study. As an application of the model, the analysis of the factors affecting recent international price increase in corn market is conducted. As is often said, the factors affecting the corn price increase are rapid population growth and economic growth in less developed countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. In addition, bio-ethanol policy in developed countries are affecting as well. We estimate the contribution of these factors quantitatively.
We clarify by our constructing model that the increase in derived demand for corn due to the rapid economic growth in less developing countries and the bio-ethanol policy in developed countries are not enough reasons to explain the recent skyrocket in international corn price. There is a large portion of difference between the generated corn price from our model and the actual observed price. The residual that our model cannot account for might be judged as an effect by the speculating behavior. Since we did not make deep consideration for this residual, we need to tackle this topic further in near future.
Like the bio-ethanol policies of developed countries, agricultural support policies adopted in advanced countries also affect the economy in less developing countries. We estimate the impact of international price fluctuation by the Social Accounting Matrix multiplier analysis. We take Laos and Cambodia as objectives, since these countries are poorest in Asian countries and the poverty reduction is an immediate problem to be solved. The Input-Output Tables for these countries are estimated as well.
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