Study on comprehensive probability forecast of large earthquake

• Project/Area Number: 17H00727
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: Ogata Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 名誉教授 (70000213)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
• Budget Amount: ¥38,610,000 (Direct Cost: ¥29,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥8,910,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥8,580,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,980,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥9,490,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,190,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥9,230,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,130,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥11,310,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,610,000)
• Keywords: 時空間階層ベイズETASモデル / 確率予測 / 日本内陸部直下型地震の予測 / 関東直下の予測 / 確率利得の時空間応答関数 / 多項目複合確率予測 / オンライン予測 / 階層ベイズ型時空間ETASモデル / 首都圏直下地震 / 内陸地震長期予測 / 前震のリアルタイム予測 / 点過程モデル / リアルタイム予測 / 多項目予測確率 / 関東直下３次元地震予測モデル / リアルタイム確率予測 / ３次元デロネ分割 / 階層時空間ETASモデル / 時変（非定常）ETASモデル / Brownian Passage Timeモデル / 前震の識別 / 階層ベイズ法 / 情報利得 / 関東直下３次元モデル / デロネ分割 / マグニチュード / 時空間ETASモデル / 中小地震の検出率 / ハイブリッド予測モデル / 多項目前兆の確率式 / 永年的確率とHIST-ETAS背景地震活動度 / 非定常ETASモデル / 長期予測活断層 / Brawnian Passage Time / リアルタイム余震予測 / マグニチュードの予測

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We established the prototype of multi-factor probability forecasting including spatio-temporal ETAS models. In particular, we constructed 2- and 3-dimensional spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian ETAS models for entire inland areas and the Tokyo metropolitan area, respectively. We were able to implement not only short-term forecasts for these areas but also long-term forecasts for inland damage earthquakes. We have obtained new statistical models for predicting the probability of an exceptionally larger earthquake within each earthquake group (foreshock probability), as well as we have obtained the real-time aftershock probability prediction that can provide the probability of a major earthquake chain. The ETAS-based "relative quiescence" of aftershock activity provides a spatio-temporal response function for the probability gain of a large subsequent earthquake in and around the vicinity of the main shock. These can now be implemented in online forecasting.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地震の確率予測は社会的・工学的に多様な需要がある。地震発生の有無だけでなく、多様な想定シナリオごとの確率を付加する点で、緊急地震速報などの防災対策の高度化と社会的な災害損失の縮小へ貢献する。すなわち。防災関係筋や一般への情報発信において、多くの予測方式を考慮し試行実験をすることで、限られた種類だけの予測による偏りを避けることができる。特に、現時点までの政府地震本部の予測は活断層のみに基づく日本内陸部直下型地震の予測計画は大きく遅れており、関連する予測モデルの開発も殆ど進んでいない。ここで取り分け本研究の直下型地震予測モデル、特に関東直下の予測モデルは極めて重要であると考える。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Hierarchical Space-Time Point-Process Models (HIST-PPM): Software Documentation (2021)
  • Author(s): Y. Ogata, K. Katsura, M. Tanemura, D. Harte and J. Zhuang
  • Journal Title: Computer Science Monographs Volume: 35 Pages: 1-84
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Spatial variations in seismicity characteristics in and around the source region of the 2019 Yamagata-Oki Earthquake, Japan (2021)
  • Author(s): Ueda Taku、Kato Aitaro、Ogata Yosihiko、Yamaya Lina
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 73 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-10
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-020-01325-9
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the <i>a</i>-value of the Gutenberg-Richter Law (2020)
  • Author(s): IWATA Takaki、OGATA Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 2nd ser.) Volume: 73 Issue: 0 Pages: 93-96
  • DOI: 10.4294/zisin.2020-1
  • NAID: 130007948487
  • ISSN: 0037-1114, 1883-9029, 2186-599X
  • Year and Date: 2020-10-07
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Inferring seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China based on the modern earthquake catalogue (1980-2019) (2020)
  • Author(s): Xiong Ziyao、Zhou Shiyong、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Earthquake Science Volume: 33 Issue: 3 Pages: 107-115
  • DOI: 10.29382/eqs-2020-0107-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing the Potential Earthquake Precursory Information in ULF Magnetic Data Recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000?2010: Distance and Magnitude Dependences (2020)
  • Author(s): Han Peng、Zhuang Jiancang、Hattori Katsumi、Chen Chieh-Hung、Febriani Febty、Chen Hongyan、Yoshino Chie、Yoshida Shuji
  • Journal Title: Entropy Volume: 22 Issue: 8 Pages: 859-859
  • DOI: 10.3390/e22080859
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] A New Method for Imaging Seismic Quiescence and Its Application to the Mw?=?8.3 Kurile Islands Earthquake on 15 November 2006 (2020)
  • Author(s): Katsumata Kei、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Pure and Applied Geophysics Volume: 177 Issue: 8 Pages: 3619-3630
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02498-w
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Nonstationary Background Seismicity Rate and Evolution of Stress Changes in the Changning Salt Mining and Shale-Gas Hydraulic Fracturing Region, Sichuan Basin, China (2020)
  • Author(s): Jia Ke、Zhou Shiyong、Zhuang Jiancang、Jiang Changsheng、Guo Yicun、Gao Zhaohui、Gao Shesheng、Ogata Yosihiko、Song Xiaodong
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 91 Issue: 4 Pages: 2170-2181
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220200092
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Statistical Monitoring and Early Forecasting of the Earthquake Sequence: Case Studies after the 2019 M6.4 Searles Valley Earthquake, California (2020)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko、Omi Takahiro
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Volume: 110 Issue: 4 Pages: 1781-1798
  • DOI: 10.1785/0120200023
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Wide-area seismicity anomalies before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. (2020)
  • Author(s): Takao Kumazawa, Yosihiko Ogata, Shinji Toda
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 223-2 Issue: 2 Pages: 13041312-13041312
  • DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggaa356
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 第225回地震予知連絡会重点検討課題「予測実験の試行06」の検討 (概要) リアルタイム短期予測の実施と評価について (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 352-355
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 多様な予測方式に対する前震識別モデルとその予測性能評価 (2020)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 361-366
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 日本における余震活動のリアルタイム確率予測 (2020)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 367-368
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 群発地震活動の非定常ETASモデルによる検出と測地学データに基づく予測可能性について (2020)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 378-384
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 階層的時空間ETASモデルによる短期・中期予測 (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 385-387
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks (2020)
  • Author(s): Terakawa Toshiko、Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro、Noda Akemi
  • Journal Title: Earth and Planetary Science Letters Volume: 535 Pages: 116103-116103
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116103
  • NAID: 120006883535
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The 3‐D Spatial Distribution of Shear Strain Energy Changes Associated With the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, Southwest Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Noda Akemi、Saito Tatsuhiko、Fukuyama Eiichi、Terakawa Toshiko、Tanaka Sachiko、Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 47 Issue: 3 Pages: 1-9
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086369
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Model checking for hidden Markov models (2020)
  • Author(s): Buckby Jodie、Wang Ting、Zhuang Jiancang、Obara Kazushige
  • Journal Title: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 1-31
  • DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2020.1743295
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Detection and replenishment of missing data in marked point processes (2020)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang、Wang Ting、Kiyosugi Koji
  • Journal Title: Statistica Sinica Volume: 印刷中
  • DOI: 10.5705/ss.202017.0403
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Characteristics of seismic activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa Takao、Ogata Yosihiko、Tsuruoka Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 71 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-17
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-019-1102-y
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] High-resolution 3D earthquake forecasting beneath the greater Tokyo area (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko、Katsura Koich、Tsuruoka Hiroshi、Hirata Naoshi
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 71 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-14
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-019-1086-7
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Modeling and Forecasting Aftershocks Can Be Improved by Incorporating Rupture Geometry in the ETAS Model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo Yicun、Zhuang Jiancang、Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 46 Issue: 22 Pages: 12881-12889
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084775
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata、Y..
  • Journal Title: Nature Communications Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-11
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Implementation of a Real‐Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Omi Takahiro、Ogata Yosihiko、Shiomi Katsuhiko、Enescu Bogdan、Sawazaki Kaoru、Aihara Kazuyuki
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 90 Issue: 1 Pages: 242-250
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220180213
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Physical interpretation of moment tensor and the energetics of shear faulting (2019)
  • Author(s): Matsu’ura Mitsuhiro、Noda Akemi、Terakawa Toshiko
  • Journal Title: Tectonophysics Volume: 771 Pages: 228228-228228
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2019.228228
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 統計地震学の発展と地震活動予測：個人的経験と展望 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 統計数理 Volume: 67 Pages: 215-228
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Approximate Uncertain Program (2019)
  • Author(s): Shen Xun、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhang Xingguo
  • Journal Title: IEEE Access Volume: 7 Pages: 182357-182365
  • DOI: 10.1109/access.2019.2958621
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes with kernel functions (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science Volume: -
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Cluster analysis of spatial point patterns: posterior distribution of parents inferred from offspring (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science Volume: -
  • NAID: 210000185928
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Long‐Term Earthquake Hazard in North China Estimated from a Modern Catalog (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong Ziyao、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhou Shiyong
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Volume: 109 Issue: 6 Pages: 2340-2355
  • DOI: 10.1785/0120190066
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 首都圏直下の三次元地震活動の時空間統計モデルと詳細予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦, 桂康一, 鶴岡 弘, 平田 直
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 102 Pages: 123-129
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 北海道胆振東部地震の余震活動の特徴について (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 弘
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 101 Pages: 73-77
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 2018年大阪北部及び胆振地方の地震に対するリアリタイム余震確率予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 汐見勝彦, Bogdan Enescu, 澤崎 郁, 合原一幸
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 101 Pages: 407-410
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Seismological Investigations of Induced Earthquakes Near the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage Facility (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhou Pengcheng、Yang Hongfeng、Wang Baoshan、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 124 Issue: 8 Pages: 8753-8770
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019jb017360
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimation of near-surface density based on gravity Bayesian analysis and its application in Yunnan area (2019)
  • Author(s): Niu, Y., Guo, L., Shi, L., Chen, S. and Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Geophysics Volume: 62 Pages: 2101-2114
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Exploring Magnitude Forecasting of the Next Earthquake (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko、Katsura Koichi、Tsuruoka Hiroshi、Hirata Naoshi
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 89 Issue: 4 Pages: 1298-1304
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220180034
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Comment on “A Review of Self-Exciting Spatiotemporal Point Process and Their Applications” by Alex Reinhart (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Statistical Science Volume: 33 Issue: 3 Pages: 319-322
  • DOI: 10.1214/18-sts650
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities (2018)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer Danijel、Werner Maximilian J.、Marzocchi Warner、Jordan Thomas H.、Ogata Yosihiko、Jackson David D.、Mak Sum、Rhoades David A.、Gerstenberger Matthew C.、Hirata Naoshi、Liukis Maria、Maechling Philip J.、Strader Anne、Taroni Matteo、Wiemer Stefan、Zechar Jeremy D.、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 89 Issue: 4 Pages: 1305-1313
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220180053
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] マグニチュードと時空間情報に基づく前震確率評価モデルの識別性能 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 99 Pages: 446-451
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 次の地震のマグニチュード予測と評価 (2018)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 99 Pages: 452-455
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] A test on methods for MC estimation based on earthquake catalog (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhou, Y., Zhou, S. and Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Earth and Planetary Physics Volume: 2 Issue: 2 Pages: 150-162
  • DOI: 10.26464/epp2018015
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Modelling and forecasting three-dimensional-hypocentre seismicity in the Kanto region (2018)
  • Author(s): Guo Yicun、Zhuang Jiancang、Hirata Naoshi
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 214 Issue: 1 Pages: 520-530
  • DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggy154
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] A Bayesian approach to estimating a spatial stress pattern from P-wave first-motions (2018)
  • Author(s): Iwata, T.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 6 Pages: 4841-4858
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017jb015359
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 複数の気象要因を用いた南極・昭和基地における地震検知能力の季節変化の統計モデル化 (2018)
  • Author(s): 岩田 貴樹
  • Journal Title: 月刊地球 Volume: 140 Pages: 486-492
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Earthquake Detection Probabilities in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer Danijel、Hirata Naoshi、Ishigaki Yuzo、Doi Keiji、Nanjo Kazuyoshi Z.、Tsuruoka Hiroshi、Beutin Thomas、Euchner Fabian
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Volume: 108 Issue: 2 Pages: 702-717
  • DOI: 10.1785/0120170110
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Did the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake trigger the occurrence of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan, China? (2018)
  • Author(s): Ke, J., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J., Jiang, C., Guo, Y., Gao, Z. and Gao, S.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 4 Pages: 2965-2983
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017jb015165
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Modeling continuous time series with many zeros and an application to earthquakes (2018)
  • Author(s): Wang Y.、Wang T.、Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Environmetrics Volume: 29 Issue: 4
  • DOI: 10.1002/env.2500
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Identifying the Recurrence Patterns of Nonvolcanic Tremors Using a 2-D Hidden Markov Model With Extra Zeros (2018)
  • Author(s): Wang Ting、Zhuang Jiancang、Buckby Jodie、Obara Kazushige、Tsuruoka Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 123 Issue: 8 Pages: 6802-6825
  • DOI: 10.1029/2017jb015360
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comment on “A Review of Self-Exciting Spatio-Temporal Point Process and Their Applications” by Alex Reinhart (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Statistical Science Volume: 33 Issue: 3 Pages: 323-324
  • DOI: 10.1214/18-sts651
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The relationship between normalised horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) of microtremors and the F distribution (2018)
  • Author(s): Cho Ikuo、Iwata Takaki
  • Journal Title: Exploration Geophysics Volume: 49 Issue: 5 Pages: 637-646
  • DOI: 10.1071/eg17110
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Development and numerical tests of a Bayesian approach to inferring shallow velocity structures using microtremor arrays (2018)
  • Author(s): Cho, I. and T. Iwata
  • Journal Title: Exploration Geophysics Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 6 Pages: 881-890
  • DOI: 10.1071/eg18011
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Bayesian approach for network adjustment for gravity survey campaign: methodology and model test (2018)
  • Author(s): Chen Shi、Zhuang Jiancang、Li Xiaoyi、Lu Hongyan、Xu Weimin
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geodesy Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 5 Pages: 681-700
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00190-018-1190-7
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Likelihood-based detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott point processes (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Environmental Statistics Volume: 8 Pages: 1-15
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy from 2005 to 2016 (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang、Murru Maura、Falcone Giuseppe、Guo Yicun
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 216 Pages: 302-318
  • DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggy428
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] A semiparametric spatiotemporal Hawkes-type point process model with periodic background for crime data (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang、Mateu Jorge
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 919-942
  • DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12429
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Interpretation of Offshore Crustal Movements Following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by the Combined Effect of Afterslip and Viscoelastic Stress Relaxation (2018)
  • Author(s): Noda Akemi、Takahama Tsutomu、Kawasato Takeshi、Matsu’ura Mitsuhiro
  • Journal Title: Pure and Applied Geophysics Volume: 175 Issue: 2 Pages: 559-572
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00024-017-1682-z
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Modelling and simulation of Holocene marine terrace development in Boso Peninsula, central Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Noda Akemi、Miyauchi Takahiro、Sato Toshinori、Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro
  • Journal Title: Tectonophysics Volume: 731-732 Pages: 139-154
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2018.03.008
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 点過程モデルによる熊本地震前後の地震活動の解析 (2018)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 弘
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 100 Pages: 397-404
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] BPTモデルの共通のばらつきパラメータの推定とベイズ型予測 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 100 Pages: 350-355
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Discussion on “A review of self-exciting spatiotemporal point process and their applications” by Alex Reinhart (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Statistical Science Volume: 印刷中
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Discussion on ‘A review of self-exciting spatiotemporal point process and their applications’ by Alex Reinhart (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Journal Title: Statistical Science Volume: 印刷中
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Characteristics of Viscoelastic Crustal Deformation Following a Megathrust Earthquake: Discrepancy Between the Apparent and Intrinsic Relaxation Time Constants (2017)
  • Author(s): Fukahata Yukitoshi、Matsu’ura Mitsuhiro
  • Journal Title: Pure and Applied Geophysics Volume: 175 Issue: 2 Pages: 549-558
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00024-017-1735-3
  • NAID: 120006591432
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Triggering and decay characteristics of dynamically activated seismicity in Southwest Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Opris Anca、Enescu Bogdan、Yagi Yuji、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 212 Issue: 2 Pages: 1010-1021
  • DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggx456
  • NAID: 120006473805
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Measuring seismicity diversity and anomalies using point process models: case studies before and after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes in Kyushu, Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa Takao、Ogata Yosihiko、Tsuruoka Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 69 Issue: 1 Pages: 169-169
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-017-0756-6
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Statistics of Earthquake Activity: Models and Methods for Earthquake Predictability Studies (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume: 45 Issue: 1 Pages: 497-527
  • DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-015918
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Forecasting of a Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 88 Issue: 4 Pages: 1117-1126
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220170006
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 最新の活断層カタログに基づくBPT予測 (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 98 Pages: 443-448
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 2016年熊本地震の余震活動について (2017)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡弘
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 98 Pages: 386-391
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Automated determination of magnitude and source length of large earthquakes using backprojection and P wave amplitudes (2017)
  • Author(s): Dun Wang Hitoshi Kawakatsu Jiancang Zhuang Jim Mori Takuto Maeda Hiroshi Tsuruoka Xu Zhao
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 44 Issue: 11 Pages: 5447-5456
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017gl073801
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture (2017)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y., Zhuang, J., Hirata, N. and Zhou, S.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 122 Issue: 7 Pages: 5288-5305
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017jb014064
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources (2017)
  • Author(s): Yang HongFeng、Liu YaJing、Wei Meng、Zhuang JianCang、Zhou ShiYong
  • Journal Title: Science China - Earth Sciences Volume: 60 Issue: 9 Pages: 1632-1644
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11430-017-9063-0
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Application and comparison of two short-term probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake (in Chinese) (2017)
  • Author(s): Jiang, C., Zhuang, J., Wu, Z. and Bi, J.
  • Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Geophysics Volume: 60 Pages: 4132-4144
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock?main shock?aftershock sequence (2017)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov Robert、Zhuang Jiancang、Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 212 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-13
  • DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggx407
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Hawkes process model with a time-dependent background rate and its applicationto high-frequency financial data (2017)
  • Author(s): Omi, T., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K.
  • Journal Title: Physical Review E. Volume: 96 Issue: 1
  • DOI: 10.1103/physreve.96.012303
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Hidden Markov modelling of sparse time series from non-volcanic tremor observations (2016)
  • Author(s): Wang, T., Zhuang, J., Obara, K. and Tsuruoka, H.
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series C(Applied Statistics) Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 691-715
  • DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12194
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 時空間ETASモデルの球面バージョン (2021)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉*, 熊 子瑶, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 長野・岐阜・福井県境付近の群発地震活動の統計解析とその特徴について (2021)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 長野・岐阜・福井県境付近の群発地震活動について (2021)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦*
  • Organizer: 第230回 地震予知連絡会議
• [Presentation] 2019年山形県沖地震震源域とその周辺の地震活動の空間不均質性 (2020)
  • Author(s): 上田 拓*, 加藤愛太郎, 尾形良彦, 山谷里奈
  • Organizer: 第998回東大地震研究所談話会
• [Presentation] 背景地震活動度と地殻内大地震の発生確率予測について (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 地震・火山噴火予知研究協議会 地震長期予測ワークショップ
• [Presentation] Spatial variations in seismicity characteristics in and around the source region of the 2019 Yamagata-Oki Earthquake (2020)
  • Author(s): Ueda, T.*, Kato, A., Ogata, Y. and Yamaya, L.
  • Organizer: 2020 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 階層的時空間ETASモデルに基づく短期・中期・長期予測および背景率予測 －自動予測の開発に向けて (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第229回地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] ETASモデルの進化と因果推論のモデリング (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2020年度秋季大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 群発地震の予測可能性と2020年長野県中部群発地震の考察 (2020)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2020年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Statistical monitoring and early forecasting of earthquake sequence: Case studies after the 2019 M6.4 Searles Valley Earthquake, California (2020)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.* and Omi, T.
  • Organizer: 2020 Annual Meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 地震カタログの不均質性のモデリング分析および補正 (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 2020年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] データベースによる地震の予測など (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 統計数理研究所リスク解析戦略研究センターシンポジウム
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 大地震の統計的モニタリングと予測の実施： California M7.3 Ridgecrest地震までの例 (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦*, 近江崇宏
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Different deformation styles in the source regions of the 2019 Yamagata-oki earthquake and the 1964 Niigata earthquake, (2020)
  • Author(s): 上田 拓*, 山谷里奈, 尾形良彦, 加藤愛太郎
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 北海道胆振東部地震の詳細解析 (2020)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 弘
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian inference and forecast for aperiodicity parameters of recurret earthquakes under uncertain occurrence times (2020)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 北淡国際活断層シンポジウム2020
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] リアルタイム短期予測の実施と評価について (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
• [Presentation] Bayesian approach for network adjustment for gravity survey campaign (2020)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 固体地球データ同化に関する研究会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 地震再来間隔の変動係数の推定について (2020)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 固体地球データ同化に関する研究会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 余震活動の時空間モデリングにおける空間カーネルの改良 (2020)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 固体地球データ同化に関する研究会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 階層的時空間ETASモデル常時地震活動と小繰り返し地震 (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 研究集会「地震火山観測研究計画 繰り返し地震課題」
• [Presentation] 繰り返し地震から推定される東北地方太平洋沖地震前後を通した滑り速度推移 (2020)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 研究集会「地震火山観測研究計画 繰り返し地震課題」
• [Presentation] Spatiotemporal Evolution of Background Seismicity Rate and Stress Changes Inverted from Seismic Catalog in Changning Shalegas Hydraulic Fracturing Region, Sichuan Basin of China (2019)
  • Author(s): Jia, K.*, Zhou, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Spatial Heterogeneity of the Aftershock Productivity of the Kumamoto Earthquake Modeled by the Finite Source ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Bayesian approach to estimating the strain rate from GPS Velocity observations and application to data from Mainland Chaina (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Toward a real-time probability forecasting system for earthquake occurrences (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 予測方式に応じた前震識別モデル (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 摩擦構成則に基づく余震活動の時空間モデル (2019)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] Modeling and forecasting aftershocks can be improved by incorporating rupture geometry in the ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] カリフォルニア Ridgecrest地震前後の予測と解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦*, 近江崇宏
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 北海道胆振東部地震の詳細解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 宏
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 多様な予測方式に対識別モデルする前震とその予測性能評価 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一・尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 群発地震活動の非定常ETASモデルによる検出と測地学データに基づく予測可能性について (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄・尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 階層的時空間ETASモデルによる短期・中期予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 日本における余震活動のリアルタイム確率予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 北京大学理論応用地球物理学研究所
  • Invited
• [Presentation] High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 南方科学技術大学理学院地球及び空間科学系
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 不確定な活動時期をもつ繰り返し地震群に対するベイズ推論 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 山陰地方の空間応力パターン推定：高解像度解析に向けた予備的解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹*, 飯尾能久
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 地震学的データを用いた応力インバージョン手法の比較, (2019)
  • Author(s): 深畑幸俊*, 岩田貴樹, 吉田圭佑
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Spatial heterogeneity of aftershock productivity on the Kumamoto earthquake rupture modeled by the finite source ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Delaunay三角形網による高分解能地震活動モデル (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 震源カタログの時空間非均質性のベイズ的モデリングと可視化 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 剪断破壊のエネルギー論的考察に基づく余震発生の評価規準量 (2019)
  • Author(s): 松浦充宏*, 寺川寿子, 野田朱美
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 弾性歪エネルギーに基づく地震破壊規準による余震の評価 (2019)
  • Author(s): 寺川寿子*, 松浦充宏, 野田朱美
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Characteristics of seismic activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 弘
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Comparison of Models of Long-term Seismic Hazard and with An Application to North China (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] A filtering formula for the conditional intensity of the renewal Hawkes process (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] Clustered LassoとOSCARに対するpath algorithms (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] 空間点群の中心数と中心位置のMCMCシミュレーション法 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] SCEC CSEP Workshop on Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the Ridgecrest Sequence and CSEP2 Progress (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: SCEC CSEP Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 次回(第225回)重点検討課題「予測実験の試行06」の検討 リアルタイム短期予測の実施と評価について (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第224回地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] A Filtering Formula for the Conditional Intensity of the Renewal Hawkes Process (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Modeling Heterogeneity and Non-stationarity of Recurrent Earthquakes, Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science (2019)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Spatial Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity on the Kumamoto Earthquake Rupture Modeled by the Finite Source ETAS Model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 3D seismicity model beneath the Greater Tokyo Area (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Characteristics of Seismic Activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa, T.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Flexible Modeling of Point Processes, Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science (2019)
  • Author(s): Omi, T.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Maita, E.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Satiotemporal evolution of background seismicity rate and stress changes inverted from seismic catalog in Changning region, Sichuan Basin of China (2019)
  • Author(s): Jia, K.*, Zhou, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Operational earthquake forecast incorporating multiple geophysical data (2019)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Bayesian approach of network adjustment for campaigned gravity survey: methodology and model test (2019)
  • Author(s): Chen, S.*, Li, H., Zhuang, J., Zhang, B. and Wang, L.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian Inference on the Magnitude of the Largest Expected Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov, R.*, Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Declustering algorithms and network theory for the topological inspection of earthquake sequences (2019)
  • Author(s): Varini, E.*, Peresan, A. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian assimilation inversion of gravity anomalies and parameters optimization (2019)
  • Author(s): Li, H.*, Zhang, B., Chen, S. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Spatial Distribution of Coefficients of Variation for Recurrence Intervals of Paleoearthquakes in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Remote triggering of earthquakes as a potential stress-meter: the case of the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Enescu, B.*, Shimojo, K., Opris, A., Yagi, Y. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] An Application of a Bayesian estimation of spatial stress pattern to San-in region, Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Iwata, T.* and Iio, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Development of the earthquake nowcasting method with application to Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Nanjo, K.Z.*, Rundle, J.B. and Sakurada, T.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] High resolution seismicity models using interpolation with Delaunay triangulation (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Modeling, visualizing and calibrating heterogeneous hypocenter catalog (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Results for real-time aftershock forecasting in Japan during recent two years (2019)
  • Author(s): Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The change in the elastic strain energy due to the 1992 Landers earthquake and triggering mechanisms of aftershock activity (2019)
  • Author(s): Terakawa, T.*, Matsu’ura, M. and Noda, A.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Anomalies in wide seismicity before the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Toda, S.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉*, 蒔田恵理
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊 子瑶, 庄 建倉*, 周 仕勇
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] CSEP Japan の結果と今後に向けて (2019)
  • Author(s): 平田 直*, 鶴岡 弘, Schorlemmer, D., 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Earthquake probability forecast incorporating non-seismic data (2019)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments (2019)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Jordan, T., Marzocchi, W., Savran, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Beutin, T., Jackson, D. D., Maechling, P., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D., Tsuruoka, H., Weatherill, G., and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 不確定な活動時期をもつ繰り返し地震に対する更新過程のベイズ推論と予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] P波初動データと空間応力パターンから推定した2000年鳥取県西部地震の余震のメカニズム解 (2019)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 首都圏直下の3次元高解像度地震活動予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦*, 桂 康一, 鶴岡 弘, 平田 直
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] アスペリティー破壊の地震モーメントと応力降下量，並びに歪みエネルギー解放量 (2019)
  • Author(s): 松浦充宏
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 1992年ランダース地震による弾性歪エネルギーの変化と余震の評価 (2019)
  • Author(s): 寺川寿子*, 松浦充宏, 野田朱美
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Data missing in the Chichi earthquake sequence and stochastic replenishment (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019 Taiwan Geosciences Assembly (TGA)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Capturing the complexity of earthquake sequences by different methods (2019)
  • Author(s): Peresan, A.*, Varini, E. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments (2019)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D., Maechling, P., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D., Strader, A., Tsuruoka, H., Weatherill, G., Zhuang, J. and Savran, W.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Use of Double Difference seismic tomography to reveal seismicity and crustal structure patterns across the Eastern Carpathians, Romania (2019)
  • Author(s): Borleanu, F.*, Petrescu, L., Enescu, B., Popa, M. and Radulian, M.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The effect of a mainshock on the size distribution of the aftershocks (2019)
  • Author(s): Gulia, L.*, Tormann, T., Rinaldi, A.P., Vannucci., G., Enescu, B. and Wiemer, S.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Identifying the recurrence patterns of non-volcanic tremors by using a 2D hidden Markov model (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 琉球大学「固体地球データ同化に関する研究会」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 地震群からの特徴量抽出に基づく前震識別と本震予測モデル (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 琉球大学「固体地球データ同化に関する研究会」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 地震活動度による短期・中期の確率予測と結果 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 地震予知連絡会50周年記念企画公開シンポジウム
• [Presentation] 首都圏直下の三次元地震活動の時空間統計モデルと詳細予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦, 桂康一, 鶴岡弘, 平田直
  • Organizer: 第222回地震予知連絡会議
• [Presentation] 非定常更新過程モデルによる相似地震に基づいたプレート間準静的滑りの逆推定手法の開発 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 平成30年度研究集会「相似地震再来特性の理解に基づく地殻活動モニタリング手法の構築」
• [Presentation] A Semi-parametric Spatiotemporal Hawkes-type Point Process Model with Periodic Background for Crime Data (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: International Conference on "Data Science, Time Series Modeling and Applications" (ICMMA2018)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Identifying the recurrence patterns of non-volcanic tremors by using a 2D hidden Markov model (2019)
  • Author(s): Wang, T., Zhuang, J., 小原一成, 鶴岡 弘 and Buckby, J.
  • Organizer: 第5回研究集会「地震活動の時空間パターンと断層および地震サイクルとの関係」
• [Presentation] Triggering and Decay Characteristics of Dynamically Activated Seismicity in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Enescu, B.
  • Organizer: 第5回研究集会「地震活動の時空間パターンと断層および地震サイクルとの関係」
• [Presentation] Earthquake prediction: what we can do, and what we cannot do (2019)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 活断層の長期予測におけるばらつきパラメータαの検討と影響 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] P波初動をデータとした応力場の空間パターンおよびメカニズム解のベイズ推定 (2019)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 全世界の大地震(M8+)の発生とb値の減少の関係について (2019)
  • Author(s): 楠城一嘉 , 中谷正生, 野村俊一, 長尾年恭
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 震源カタログの時空間・マグニチュードの不均質性のベイズモデルと可視化 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 東北沖地震前の広域地震活動変動 (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 遠田晋次
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 日本列島における発震機構を用いたETASモデルの拡張 (2019)
  • Author(s): 蒔田 恵理, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 研究集会「日本における地震活動に基づく地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 首都圏直下の地震活動と予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)シンポジウム「空間データと災害の統計モデル」
• [Presentation] 日本列島における発震機構を用いたETASモデルの拡張 (2019)
  • Author(s): 蒔田 恵理, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)シンポジウム「空間データと災害の統計モデル」
• [Presentation] Statistical testing of earthquake precursors and modelling strategies (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Han, P. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Seismic Detection of Very Early Aftershocks Following the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield Earthquake (2018)
  • Author(s): Peng, Z., Neves, M., Daniels, C., Zhu, L., McClellan, J-H. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Seismological investigations of potentially induced earthquakes near the Hutubi underground gas storage (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhou, P., Yang, H., Wang, B. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Did the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake trigger the occurrence of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan, China? (2018)
  • Author(s): Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J., Jiang, C. and Guo, Y.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian Framework for Constraining the Magnitude of Extreme Aftershocks (2018)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian estimation and forecast for recurrence intervals of uncertain occurrence times from paleoearthquakes (2018)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Triggering and Decay Characteristics of Dynamically Activated Seismicity in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Enescu, B., Shimojo, K., Opris, A., Yagi, Y. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Crustal structure of the Eastern Carpathians (Romania) region as revealed by double-difference seismic tomography (2018)
  • Author(s): Borleanu, F., Enescu, B., Petrescu, L. Popa, M. and Radulian, M.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Investigating the Seismicity Before and After the 2018 M6.1 Osaka Earthquake, Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Peng, H., Enescu, B., Lin, A. and Shiomi, K.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Heterogeneity of Direct Aftershock Productivity of the Mainshock Rupture (2018)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y., Zhuang, J., Hirata, N. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Modeling and visualizing space-time heterogeneities of hypocenter catalogs (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 3D ETAS based model for predicting seismicity beneath the Greater Tokyo Area (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Real-time operational aftershock forecasting in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Estimation of gradual stress changes before the 2016 Mw7.0 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake (2018)
  • Author(s): Noda, A., Saito, T., Fukuyama, E., Terakawa, T. and Matsu’ura, M.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Combining focal mechanisms into the ETAS model (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J. and Maita, E.
  • Organizer: 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 北海道胆振東部地震の余震活動の特徴について (2018)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡弘
  • Organizer: 第221回地震予知連絡会議
• [Presentation] 2018年大阪北部及び胆振地方の地震に対するリアリタイム余震確率予測 (2018)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 汐見勝彦, Enescu, B., 澤崎郁, 合原一幸
  • Organizer: 第221回地震予知連絡会議
• [Presentation] 活動間隔のばらつきαのベイズ推定 ―中央構造線断層帯の例― (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 地震調査委員会第240回長期評価部会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Hawkes models in social and natural sciences: estimation, diagnostics, and extensions (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 東北大学 Data Science Workshop
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 日本の活断層カタログに対する BPT モデルによるベイズ型予測と数値実験に基づく予測性能 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] P波初動データから得た応力場の空間パターンに基づくメカニズム解推定 (2018)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 統計地震学と地震活動の物理 (2018)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 2018 年 6 月 18 日の大阪府北部を震源とする地震に対するリアルタイム余震予測 (2018)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 汐見勝彦, Enescu, B., 澤崎 郁, 合原一幸
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] ウォレス－ボット仮説の理論的背景 (2018)
  • Author(s): 松浦充宏, 野田朱美, 寺川寿子
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 弾性・非弾性歪み解析を用いた地震間の応力蓄積・解放の推定：別府－島原地溝帯周辺域への適用 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野田朱美, 齊藤竜彦, 福山英一, 寺川寿子, 松浦充宏
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 2011年東北沖地震前の広域地震活動変動 (2018)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 遠田晋次
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Next one-day aftershock forecasting generated by ETAS model and R-J model (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhang, S., Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] History of ACES Activity (2018)
  • Author(s): Matsu’ura, M.
  • Organizer: 10th ACES(APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science) International Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Two Different Representations of Moment Tensor and the Energetics of Shear Faulting (2018)
  • Author(s): Matsu’ura, M.
  • Organizer: 10th ACES(APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science) International Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 統計検定と統計リテラシー (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 2018年度数学教育学会秋季例会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Classification of non-volcanic tremor observations (2018)
  • Author(s): Buckby, J., Wang, T., Zhuang, J., Obara, K. and Takeo, A.
  • Organizer: International Joint Workshop on Slow Earthquakes 2018
• [Presentation] A semi-parametric spatiotemporal Hawkes-type point process model with periodic background for crime data (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J. and Mateu, J.
  • Organizer: 2018年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] 一般化fused lassoを用いたクラス料率の自動セグメンテーション (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 2018年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] Modelling and forecasting three-dimensional-hypocentre seismicity in the Kanto region (2018)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.
  • Organizer: 2018年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] 地震マグニチュード系列の予測と検証 (2018)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 2018年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] Perspectives from CSEP Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: SCEC Workshop on Predictive Skill Across Tectonic Settings and Planning CSEP 2.0, CSEP Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] SCEC Workshop on Predictive Skill Across Tectonic Settings and Planning CSEP 2.0, CSEP Workshop (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: SCEC Workshop on Predictive Skill Across Tectonic Settings and Planning CSEP 2.0, CSEP Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 3D models of seismicity beneath the Greater Tokyo Area (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N.
  • Organizer: SCEC Workshop on Predictive Skill Across Tectonic Settings and Planning CSEP 2.0, CSEP Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Increasing earthquake forecast testability-CSEP future developments (2018)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T., Ogata, Y., Jackson, D., Mak, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Hirata, N., Strader, A., Taroni, M., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: The European Seismological Commission 36th General Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Studies of Seismic Activity and Forecasting based on the ETAS models (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Critical zone of the branching crack model for earthquakes: inherent randomness, earthquake predictability, and precursor modeling (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: Seminar, National Central University, Taiwan
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Detection and replenishment of missing data in marked point processes (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 5th Institute of Mathematical Statistics(IMS), Asia Pacific Rim Meeting(IMS-APRM 2018)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Clustering models for earthquake occurrences and extensions (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2nd International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics(EcoSta 2018)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Seismicity rate change in Japan following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (2018)
  • Author(s): Ishibe, T., Miyazawa, M., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K.
  • Organizer: 15th Annual Meeting Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Critical zone of the branching crack model for earthquakes: inherent randomness, earthquake predictability, and precursor modelling (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Matsu’ura, M. and Han, P.
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] On the precursory information in ULF seismo-electromagnetic phenomena (2018)
  • Author(s): Han, P., Hattori, K. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Precursory signals from GPS data for short-term earthquake forecasts: signal processing and assessment (2018)
  • Author(s): Wang, T., Zhuang, J., Bebbington, M. and Kato, T.
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Statistical features and cluster-based discrimination of foreshocks (2018)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Probability forecasts of a large earthquake by combination of statistical characteristics and anomalies of seismic activity (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Real-time short-term earthquake forecasting after a large earthquake in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] A 3D-hypocentral ETAS model for the Japan CSEP project and initial results (2018)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉, 郭 一村, 平田 直, 鶴岡 弘
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Increasing Testability, Expanding Possibilities. Some CSEP Future Developments (2018)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D., Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D. D., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D., Tsuruoka, H. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Foreshock Discrimination and Short-Term Mainshock Forecast Based on Magnitude Differences and Spatio-Temporal Distances (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Triggering and Decay Characteristics of Dynamically Activated Seismicity in Southwest Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Opris, A., Enescu, B., Yagi, Y. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 2011年長野県北部の地震(Mw 6.2)の核形成過程 (2018)
  • Author(s): 下條 賢梧, Enescu, B., 八木勇治, 武田哲也
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
• [Presentation] Stress Release and Rebuilding Processes of Mega-thrust Earthquake and Periodic Slowslip Detected by Focal Mechanism Patterns (2018)
  • Author(s): 松川 滉明, 八木 勇治, 笠原 天人, Enescu, B.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 2000年鳥取県西部地震の余震域に見られる応力場の回転とその時間変化 (2018)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
• [Presentation] 2011年東北沖地震前の広域地震活動変動 (2018)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 遠田晋次
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
• [Presentation] Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture (2018)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Hirata, N.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 次の地震のマグニチュード予測を探る (2018)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦, 桂 康一, 鶴岡 弘, 平田 直
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
• [Presentation] モーメントテンソル再考：二つの異なる表現とその物理的意味 (2018)
  • Author(s): 松浦充宏, 野田朱美, 寺川寿子
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
• [Presentation] 弾性・非弾性歪み解析を用いた地殻内応力蓄積・解放の評価：2016年熊本地震への適用 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野田朱美, 齊藤竜彦, 福山英一, 松浦充宏
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
• [Presentation] 震源機構を組み込んだETASモデルの拡張 (2018)
  • Author(s): 蒔田恵理, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
• [Presentation] One-day forecasts generated by the ETAS and Reasenberg-Jones models for the aftershocks following the 2017 Linzhi, Tibet, MS6.9 earthquake, China (2018)
  • Author(s): 張 盛峰, 庄 建倉, 蒋 長勝
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Earthquake triggering and interaction, based on study-cases in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Enescu, B.
  • Organizer: Workshop on the Challenges of the Continental Earthquake Science Experiments (CESES): Science, Technology and Coordination
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Toward probability forecasting of large earthquakes (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: Workshop on the Challenges of the Continental Earthquake Science Experiments (CESES): Science, Technology and Coordination
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Critical zone of the branching crack model for earthquakes: inherent randomness, earthquake predictability, and precursor modelling (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: International Conference for the Decade Memory of the Wenchuan Earthquake with the 4th International Conference on Continental Earthquakes
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Data missing of the Wenchuan aftershock sequence in the catalog and stochastic replenishment (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: International Conference for the Decade Memory of the Wenchuan Earthquake with the 4th International Conference on Continental Earthquakes
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Background rates of swarm earthquakes that are synchronized with volumetric strain changes (2018)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa, T.
  • Organizer: International Conference for the Decade Memory of the Wenchuan Earthquake with the 4th International Conference on Continental Earthquakes
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] On recent ETAS research progress for seismicity (2018)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: International Conference for the Decade Memory of the Wenchuan Earthquake with the 4th International Conference on Continental Earthquakes
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 空間的相関を考慮した地震再来間隔のばらつきパラメータの推定 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 統計数理研究所・東北大学流体科学研究所・材料科学高等研究所合同ワークショップ
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 地震のマグニチュード予測モデルと予測検証 (2018)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)シンポジウム「空間データと災害の統計モデル」
• [Presentation] BPTモデルの共通のばらつきパラメータの推定とベイズ型予測 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦*
  • Organizer: 第218回地震予知連絡会議
• [Presentation] 2000年鳥取県西部地震の本震断層近傍に見られる主応力軸の回転 (2018)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 第4回研究集会「地震活動の時空間パターンと断層および地震サイクルとの関係」
• [Presentation] 地震学的データを用いた応力空間変動のベイズ推定 (2018)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)シンポジウム「空間データと災害の統計モデル」
• [Presentation] Estimating heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity in the focal zones of large earthquakes through the ETAS model (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)シンポジウム「空間データと災害の統計モデル」,
• [Presentation] 点過程モデルによる熊本地震前後の地震活動の解析 (2018)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦*, 鶴岡 弘*
  • Organizer: 第218回地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 相似地震に基づく準静的すべり分布の推定～デロネー分割を用いた平滑化推定～ (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 平成29年度研究集会「相似地震再来特性の理解に基づく地殻活動モニタリング手法の構築」
• [Presentation] 状態空間モデルの損害保険への活用―Rパッケージ“KFAS”を用いた解析例― (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 日本アクチュアリー会第1回産学共同研究集会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 地震再来間隔の変動係数の空間分布と長期地震予測 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦*
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)シンポジウム「空間データと災害の統計モデル」
• [Presentation] 相似地震の再来間隔モデルと東北太平洋沖の準静的すべり履歴の推定 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 研究会「地震活動の物理2018」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 地震群からの特徴量抽出に基づく前震識別モデルの検討 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 研究会「地震活動の物理2018」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Modeling heterogeneity and non-stationarity of earthquake recurrence cycles (2018)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Risk Analysis and Random Fields
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 日本における長期地震予測の現状と課題 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: OLIS・慶應義塾大学 保険フォーラム2017
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Classification of Intra-Week and Intra-Day Walking Patterns and Their Effect on Body-Composition Changes Using A Hierarchical Model (2018)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.*, Watanabe, M. and Oguma, Y.
  • Organizer: 第32回情報論的学習理論と機械学習研究会（IBISML）
• [Presentation] Spatial distribution of coefficients of variation for earthquake recurrence intervals in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.
  • Organizer: ISM Symposium on Environmental Statistics 2018
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 相似地震活動に基づくプレート間すべりの時空間変動の逆推定 (2018)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 地震研特定共同研究(B)「固体地球科学のシミュレーションモデルと観測データに適用可能なデータ同化法の開発」ミーティング
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 大地震の確率予測: 実用化に向けて (2017)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 研究集会「地震先行現象・地震活動予測」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 2016年熊本地震の余震活動について (2017)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦*, 鶴岡弘*
  • Organizer: 第215回地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 最新の活断層カタログに基づくBPT予測 (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦*
  • Organizer: 第215回地震予知連絡会議
• [Presentation] HIST-ETAS models - revisited with emphasis on background seismicity (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical Union Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 地震活動の可視化と予測 (2017)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 海洋研究開発機構(JAMSTEC)シンポジウム「海洋インフォマティクス2017」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Reciprocal relationship between seismically estimated slip rates and geodetically estimated slipdeficit rates at plate interfaces: Physical interpretation and logical consequence (2017)
  • Author(s): Matsu’ura, M.*, Nomura, S.*, Ogata, Y*. and Uchida, N.
  • Organizer: IAG-IASPEI 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Delaunay triangulation for smoothing seismicity models (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2017 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Exploring magnitude forecasts of the next earthquakes (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: CSEP Workshop: Informing Earthquake Debates with CSEP Results
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] On secular spatial seismicity (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 3D spatial models for seismicity beneath greater Tokyo region (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: CSEP Workshop: Informing Earthquake Debates with CSEP Results
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Extensions of the self-exciting model and causality analysis for seismicity (2017)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: Waseda International Symposium
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] CSEP次世代プロジェクトの一展望 (2017)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2017年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Increasing Testability - Expanding Possibilities: Some CSEP future developments (2017)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y.*, Rhoades, D., Tsuruoka*, H., Yu, J. and Zhuang, J.*
  • Organizer: 2017 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan
• [Presentation] 地震マグニチュードの予測と評価について (2017)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 第8回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] Statistical modeling of earthquake temporal occurrences incorporating seismo-magnetic data (2017)
  • Author(s): 韓 鵬*, 庄 建倉*, 尾形良彦*, 服部克巳
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 第8回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 次の地震のマグニチュード予測と評価 (2017)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第217回地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Length of Large Earthquakes (2017)
  • Author(s): Wang, D.*, Kawakatsu, H., Zhuang, J.*, Mori, J.J., Maeda, T., Tsuruoka, H.* and Zhao, X.
  • Organizer: 2017 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Development of a method to estimate spatial stress pattern from P-wave first motion data: an application to a real dataset (2017)
  • Author(s): Iwata, T.
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical Union Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The spatial distribution of the stress ratio in the aftershock area of the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake (2017)
  • Author(s): Iwata, T.
  • Organizer: IAG-IASPEI 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 微動アレイデータを用いた浅部速度構造のベイズインバージョン法の開発 (2017)
  • Author(s): 長 郁夫, 岩田貴樹*
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2017年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] P波初動データに基づく応力場の空間パターン推定：応力比推定の試み (2017)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2017年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 応力空間パターンのベイズ推定：2000年鳥取県西部地震の余震データへの適用例 (2017)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 第8回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] Stress field in the aftershock area of the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake estimated by a Bayesian stress inversion analyzing P-wave first motion data (2017)
  • Author(s): Iwata, T.
  • Organizer: Workshop: Frontiers in Studies of Earthquakes and Faults (FSEF2017)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Replenishment of missing data in the observation of earthquake sequences (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy during 2005 to 2016 (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.*, Guo, Y.*, Murru, M., Falcone, G., Taroni, M., Console, R. and Tinti, E.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] The network adjustment aimed for the campaigned gravity survey using a Bayesian approach: methodology and model test (2017)
  • Author(s): Chen, S., Liao, X., Ma, H., Zhou, L., Wang, X. and Zhuang, J.*
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Assessing the potential earthquake precursory information in ULF magnetic data recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000-2010 (2017)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J.* and Hattori, K.
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical Union Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Earthquake modeling incorporating non-seismic data (2017)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J.*, Hattori, K. and Ogata, Y.*
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical Union Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Statistical characteristics of seismicity in the Kanto region detected by the 3D-ETAS model (2017)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Hirata, N. and Zhuang, J.*
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical Union Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy during 2005 to 2016 (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.*, Guo, Y.*, Murru, M., Falcone, G., Taroni, M. and Console, R.
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical Union Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Evaluation Methods of Earthquake Forecasts and earthquake predictions (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Ogata, Y.*
  • Organizer: 4th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (IWEP4 2017)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Statistical modeling of earthquake temporal occurrences incorporating seismo-magnetic data (2017)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Hattori, K., Zhuang, J.* and Ogata, Y.*
  • Organizer: 4th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (IWEP4 2017)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Semi-parametric estimates of long-term background trend, periodicity, and clustering effect for a Hawkes point process (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Mateu, J.
  • Organizer: 1st International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta 2017)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Modelling earthquake clustering and stochastic reconstruction (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: International Statistical Institute(ISI), 61st World Statistics Congress
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Clustering features of seismicity in Italy during 2005 to 2016 (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.*, Guo, Y.*, Murru, M., Falcone, G. and Tinti, E.
  • Organizer: 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy during 2005 to 2016 (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2017 Annual Meeting of Chinese Geoscience Union(CGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Triggering and Decay Characteristics of Dynamically Activated Seismicity in Southwest Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Opris, A., Enescu, B.*, Yagi, Y. and Zhuang, J.*
  • Organizer: 2017 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan
• [Presentation] Modeling and forecasting seismicity in the Kanto region by using a 3D ETAS model (2017)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Hirata, N. and Zhuang, J.*
  • Organizer: 2017 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan
• [Presentation] An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy during 2005 to 2016 (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.*, Guo, Y.*, Murru, M., Falcone, G. and Taroni, M.
  • Organizer: 2017 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan
• [Presentation] Implementation of the finite source ETAS model in CSEP (2017)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉*, 郭 一村*
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 第8回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] Assessment of precursory information in seismo-electromagnetic phenomena (2017)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Hattori, K. and Zhuang, J.*
  • Organizer: 2017 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity in the focal zones of large earthquakes and other clustering features of seismicity in Italy during 2005 to 2016 (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.*, Guo, Y.*, Murru, M., Falcone, G. and Tinti, E.
  • Organizer: 2017 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Monitoring of the Seismicity before and after the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake with Point Process Models (2017)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.*
  • Organizer: 2017 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting
• [Presentation] 2016年熊本地震発生前後の九州地方地震活動の点過程モデルによる解析 (2017)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦*, 鶴岡 弘*
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2017年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 熊本地震前後の地震活動について (2017)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦*, 鶴岡 弘*
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 第8回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] 地震群のマグニチュード頻度と時空間の特徴量を利用した前震判別モデルによる短期地震予測 (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦*
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2017年大会
• [Presentation] Spatial distribution of coefficients of variation and Bayesian forecasts for recurrence intervals of earthquakes (2017)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.*
  • Organizer: 1st International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics(EcoSta 2017)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Classification of in-week and -day patterns in ambulatory activity and body composition change (2017)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.*, Watanabe, M. and Oguma, Y.
  • Organizer: The 2017 Conference of the International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS-2017)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Short-term earthquake forecast model using foreshock discrimination and aftershock decay (2017)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.*
  • Organizer: 2017 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting
• [Presentation] Short-term forecasts by foreshock discrimination (2017)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.
  • Organizer: CSEP Workshop: Informing Earthquake Debates with CSEP Results
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 日本の活断層カタログに対するBPTモデルの適切な推定と予測について (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦*
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2017年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] BPT更新過程における変動係数αの推定方法について (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 第8回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Presentation] マグニチュードと時空間情報に基づく前震確率評価モデルの識別性能 (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦*
  • Organizer: 第217回地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Spatial Pattern of Coefficients of Variation and Bayesian Forecasts for Recurrence Intervals of Earthquakes in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.*
  • Organizer: ISI-ISM-ISSAS Joint Conference Tokyo 2017
• [Presentation] 一般化Fused Lassoによるクラス料率算定 (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 高橋宏典
  • Organizer: 日本保険・年金リスク学会第15回研究発表大会
• [Presentation] 活動量計ログデータに基づく週内活動パターンの類型化と体組成変動への影響 (2017)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 渡辺美智子, 小熊祐子
  • Organizer: 第8回横幹連合コンファレンス
• [Presentation] Hi-net自動処理震源データを用いた余震活動のリアルタイム確率予測システムの開発 (2017)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏*, 尾形良彦*, 汐見勝彦, Enescu, B.*, 澤崎 郁, 合原一幸
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2017年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Hi-net自動震源処理カタログを用いたリアルタイム余震活動予測システムl (2017)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏*, 尾形良彦*, 汐見勝彦, Bogdan Enescu*, 澤崎 郁, 合原一幸
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所 第8回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
• [Book] 点過程の時系列解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 近江 崇宏、野村 俊一
  • Total Pages: 168
  • Publisher: 共立出版
  • ISBN: 9784320112650
• [Book] Springer Natural Hazards. Moment Tensor Solutions - A Useful Tool for Seismotectonics (2018)
  • Author(s): Ariyoshi, K., Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Igarashi, T.
  • Total Pages: 752
  • Publisher: Springer
• [Remarks] リ ス ク 解 析 戦 略 研 究 セ ン タ ー 地震予測解析プロジェクト
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html
• [Remarks] Statistical Seismology Research Project
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssgE.html
• [Remarks] 尾 形 良 彦
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/JAPINDEX.html
• [Remarks] Home Page of Yosi Ogata
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/
• [Remarks] リスク解析戦略研究センター 地震予測解析プロジェクト
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html
• [Remarks] 尾形 良彦
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/JAPINDEX.html
• [Remarks] Home Page of Yosi Ogata
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/index.html
• [Remarks] 尾形 良彦 ホームページ
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/JAPINDEX.html
• [Remarks] 地震予測解析グループのページ - 統計数理研究所
  • URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html
• [Remarks] Statistical Seismology Research Project
  • URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssgE.html
• [Remarks] 尾形良彦 トップページ - 統計数理研究所
  • URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/JAPINDEX.html
• [Remarks] Yosi Ogata's Home Page
  • URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/
• [Remarks] Research map 尾形良彦
  • URL: https://researchmap.jp/read0179314/