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Probabilistic and the largest-class evaluation of water-related disaster risk using large ensemble of future climate projections

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H01294
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Hydraulic engineering
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Tachikawa Yasuto  京都大学, 工学研究科, 教授 (40227088)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 市川 温  京都大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (30293963)
Kim Sunmin  京都大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (10546013)
萬 和明  京都大学, 工学研究科, 助教 (90554212)
田中 智大  京都大学, 地球環境学堂, 助教 (20793798)
椎葉 充晴  京都大学, 工学研究科, 名誉教授 (90026352)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥24,570,000 (Direct Cost: ¥18,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥5,670,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥8,060,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,860,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥8,060,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,860,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥8,450,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,950,000)
Keywords気候変動 / 地球温暖化 / 水災害リスク / d4PDF / 河川流量 / 洪水 / 確率評価 / 最大クラス洪水 / 水災リスク / 最大クラス評価 / バイアス補正 / 渇水
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed a bias correction method for precipitation data contained in the Ensemble Climate Change Prediction Database d4PDF for all the river basins of Japan's first-class 109 rivers and obtained corrected rainfall data. Next, we developed a distributed rainfall-runoff model for the 109 first-class river basins in Japan and analyzed future changes in extreme rainfall, river discharge, and flood co-occurrence probability using the corrected rainfall data. Furthermore, we estimated flood inundation risk curves for the Yodo River basin and the Shonai River basin, and probabilistically analyzed future changes in the economic loss due to flood damage. In addition, for the entire Indochina Peninsula, we statistically analyzed the future changes of hydrometeorological indicators using d4PDF, and analyzed the flood risk with a return period of 1000 years in Hanoi and Bangkok.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本全国の一級河川109流域の河川流域を対象として、降水および河川流量の年最大値を現在気候および4度上昇シナリオの下で推定するとともに、洪水が複数の河川流域で同時に発生する同時発生確率の将来変化を分析した。また、淀川流域および庄内川流域を対象として浸水リスクカーブを推定し、現在気候と4度上昇シナリオのもとでのそれらを比較して、水害による経済的損失額の変化を確率的に分析した。また、東南アジア域の河川流域で再現期間1000年相当の最大クラスの洪水強度を推定した。これらは我が国および東南アジア河川流域の地球温暖化適応策を立案する上での基本的な資料となることが期待される。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (51 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 12 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (28 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 14 results,  Invited: 3 results) Funded Workshop (3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] チュラロンコン大学(タイ)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] トイロイ大学 (Thuyloi Universitu))/水資源学科(ベトナム)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] チュラロンコン大学 (Chulalongkorn University)/水資源学科(タイ)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] トイロイ大学(ベトナム)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Comparison of fluvial and pluvial flood risk curves in urban cities derived from a large ensemble climate simulation dataset: A case study in Nagoya, Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Tomohiro Tanaka, Keiko Kiyohara, Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Hydrology

      Volume: 584 Pages: 124706-124706

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124706

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina region under climate change using a large single‐model ensemble2020

    • Author(s)
      Patinya Hanittinan, and Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Teerawat Ram-Indra
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Climatology

      Volume: 40(6) Issue: 6 Pages: 2924-2952

    • DOI

      10.1002/joc.6374

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] d4PDFによる全国一級水系河川流域の年最大流域平均雨量の再現性評価2019

    • Author(s)
      田中智大, 河合優樹, 立川康人
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集, B1(水工学)

      Volume: 75(2)

    • NAID

      130007940062

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] IMPROVEMENT OF FLOOD RISK CURVE DEVELOPMENT BY CONSIDERING DEPENDENCE OF BASIN TOTAL RAINFALL ON ITS SPATIAL CONCENTRATION2019

    • Author(s)
      田中智大, 市川温, 横松宗太, 立川康人
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 75 Issue: 1 Pages: 112-121

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.75.112

    • NAID

      130007709887

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analysis of runoff characteristics generated by land surface models and their impacts on river discharge2019

    • Author(s)
      Aulia Febianda Anwar TINUMBANG, Kazuaki YOROZU, Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Yutaka ICHIKAWA, Hidetaka SASAKI, Toshiyuki NAKAEGAWA
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1(Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 75(2)

    • NAID

      130007940124

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An automatic domain updating method for fast 2-dimensional flood-inundation modelling2019

    • Author(s)
      Tomohiro Tanaka, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka Ichikawa, Kazuaki Yorozu
    • Journal Title

      Environmental Modelling & Software

      Volume: 116 Pages: 110-118

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.02.018

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Assessment of runoff sensitivity to changes in precipitation at the Indochina region2019

    • Author(s)
      Patinya Hanittinan, Teerawat Ram-Indra, and Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Journal Title

      Proc. of THA2019, International Conference on Water Management and Climate Change towards Asia's Water-Energy-Food Nexus and SDGs, 23-25 January 2019, Bangkok, Thailand

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Assessment of runoff generation using the simple biosphere model with urban canopy for upper Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand2019

    • Author(s)
      Teerawat Ran-Indra, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka Ichikawa, Kazuaki Yorozu, and Patinya Hanittinan
    • Journal Title

      Proc. of THA2019, International Conference on Water Management and Climate Change towards Asia's Water-Energy-Food Nexus and SDGs, 23-25 January 2019, Bangkok, Thailand

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] A study on bias correction method for runoff generation data based on reference data created by land surface model2019

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Mizushima, Kazuaki Yorozu, Yutaka Ichikawa, Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Journal Title

      Proc. of THA2019, International Conference on Water Management and Climate Change towards Asia's Water-Energy-Food Nexus and SDGs, 23-25 January 2019, Bangkok, Thailand

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Estimating probability distribution of benefit from flood control projects2019

    • Author(s)
      Keita Kobayashi, Tomohiro Tanaka, Kazuaki Yorozu, Yutaka Ichikawa and Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Journal Title

      Proc. of THA2019, International Conference on Water Management and Climate Change towards Asia's Water-Energy-Food Nexus and SDGs, 23-25 January 2019, Bangkok, Thailand

      Volume: -

    • NAID

      130007554036

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Flood risk curve development with probabilistic rainfall modelling and large ensemble climate simulation data: a case study for the Yodo River basin2018

    • Author(s)
      Tomohiro Tanaka, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka Ichikawa, Kazuaki Yorozu
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Research Letters

      Volume: 12 Issue: 4 Pages: 28-33

    • DOI

      10.3178/hrl.12.28

    • NAID

      130007546462

    • ISSN
      1882-3416
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 大気場の組み替えと分布型水循環モデルによる多数年におよぶ河川流量データ作成の研究2018

    • Author(s)
      萬 和明, 黒崎直哉, 市川 温, キムスンミン, 立川康人
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 74

    • NAID

      130007628107

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 浸水被害確率マップ作成手法の開発と宅地かさ上げによる便益評価への応用2018

    • Author(s)
      田中智大, 市川 温, 萬 和明, 立川康人
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 74

    • NAID

      130007628194

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Future river discharge projections at the Indochinese peninsula using large ensemble climate dataset2018

    • Author(s)
      Patinya HANITTINAN, Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Yutaka ICHIKAWA, Kazuaki YOROZU
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1(Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 74

    • NAID

      130007628215

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] FUTURE CHANGE ANALYSIS OF EXTREME FLOODS USING LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE SIMULATION DATA2017

    • Author(s)
      立川 康人、宮脇 航平、田中 智大、萬 和明、加藤 雅也、市川 温、キムスンミン
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 73 Issue: 3 Pages: 77-90

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.73.77

    • NAID

      130006904053

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Chapter 7, Future Changes of Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters due to Climate Change in Japan and Southeast Asia2017

    • Author(s)
      Nakakita Eiichi、Tachikawa Yasuto、Takemi Tetsuya、Mori Nobuhito、Tanaka Kenji
    • Journal Title

      Bridging Science and Policy Implication for Managing Climate Extremes, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate

      Volume: 10 Pages: 101-117

    • DOI

      10.1142/9789813235663_0007

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 大気大循環モデルMRI-AGCM3.2Hにおける土壌パラメータの流出量への感度分析2019

    • Author(s)
      萬和明、小島冴斗、立川康人、田中智大、市川温、KIM Sunmin
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Regional effect of soil datasets on land surface model simulation for the upper part of Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand2019

    • Author(s)
      Teerawat RAM-INDRA,Yasuto TACHIKAWA,Kazuaki YOROZU
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] RIVER DISCHARGE ESTIMATION USING RUNOFF GENERATED BY LAND SURFACE MODELS2019

    • Author(s)
      Aulia Febianda AnwarTINUMBANG,Kazuaki YOROZU,Yasuto TACHIKAWA,Yutaka ICHIKAWA
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] d4PDFによる全国109水系の年最大流域平均雨量の再現性評価2019

    • Author(s)
      河合優樹、田中智大、萬和明、KIM Sunmin、市川 温、立川 康人
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Applying bias correction for runoff based on reference data created by land surface model and atmopspheric reanalysis data2019

    • Author(s)
      Kazuaki Yorozu, Yusuke Mizushima, Yutaka Ichikawa and Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Impact assessment of climate change on flood frequencies in Southeast Asia using d4PDF: A case study of Red River Basin2019

    • Author(s)
      Tomohiro Tanaka, Daisuke Kato, Mizuki Shinohara, Masaya Kato, Min Yan and Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Upper Chao Phraya River flow simulation using MRI-AGCM 3.2S2019

    • Author(s)
      Aulia Febianda Anwar Tinumbang, Kazuaki Yorozu, Yasuto Tachikawa and Yutaka Ichikawa
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Upper Chao Phraya River flow simulation using MRI-AGCM 3.2S2019

    • Author(s)
      Teerawat Ram-Indra, Yasuto Tachikawa and Kazuaki Yorozu
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimating probability distribution of benefit from flood control projects2019

    • Author(s)
      Keita Kobayashi, Tomohiro Tanaka, Kazuaki Yorozu, Yutaka Ichikawa and Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Bias Correction for Runoff of GCM Output Based on Reference Data Created by Land Surface Model and Atmopspheric Reanalysis2019

    • Author(s)
      K. Yorozu, Y. Mizushima, Y. Tachikawa, Y. Ichikawa
    • Organizer
      The 27th IUGG General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Analysis of the Effectiveness of Dynamically Downscaled Climate Data for River Discharge Estimation2019

    • Author(s)
      A.F. Anwar Tinumbang, K. Yorozu, Y. Tachikawa, Y. Ichikawa
    • Organizer
      The 27th IUGG General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] d4PDFによる全国109水系の年最大流域平均雨量の再現性評価2019

    • Author(s)
      河合優樹、田中智大、萬和明、Kim Sunmin、市川温、立川康人
    • Organizer
      平成31年度 土木学会関西支部講演会講演概要集
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Future change analysis of extreme floods using large ensemble climate simulation data2019

    • Author(s)
      Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Organizer
      THA2019, International Conference on Water Management and Climate Change towards Asia's Water-Energy-Food Nexus and SDGs, 23-25 January 2019, Bangkok, Thailand
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Future change analysis of extreme floods using large ensemble climate simulation data2018

    • Author(s)
      Yasuto Tachikawa
    • Organizer
      The 8th Global FRIEND-Water Conference, Hydrological Processes and Water Security in a Changing World, Beijing, China, November 6-9, 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Evaluation of river discharge simulated by a distributed hydrologic model utilizing NHRCM 5km data2018

    • Author(s)
      Anwar Tinumbang Aulia Febianda, 萬 和明, 立川 康人, 田中 智大, Kim Sunmin, 市川 温
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年度研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 陸面過程モデルを用いた参照データ作成に基づくGCM流出発生量のバイアス補正に関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      水島 悠輔, 萬 和明, 田中 智大, Kim Sunmin, 市川 温, 立川 康人
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年度研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 分布型水循環モデルで作成した疑似流量データによる確率流量の推定可能性2018

    • Author(s)
      萬 和明, 黒崎 直哉, 立川 康人, 田中 智大, 市川 温, Kim Sunmin
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年度研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 治水投資便益の確率分布の推定2018

    • Author(s)
      小林 敬汰, 田中 智大, 萬 和明, Kim Sunmin, 市川 温, 立川 康人:
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年度研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 超多数アンサンブル気候予測実験データを用いた極値河川流量の将来変化の分析2018

    • Author(s)
      立川 康人, 宮脇 航平, 田中 智大, 萬 和明, 加藤 雅也, 市川 温, キムスンミン
    • Organizer
      第62回水工学講演会, 2018年3月5日~7日、岡山大学津島キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 大気場の組み替えと分布型水循環モデルによる多数年におよぶ河川流量データ作成の研究2018

    • Author(s)
      萬 和明, 黒崎直哉, 市川 温, キムスンミン, 立川康人
    • Organizer
      第62回水工学講演会, 2018年3月5日~7日、岡山大学津島キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 浸水被害確率マップ作成手法の開発と宅地かさ上げによる便益評価への応用2018

    • Author(s)
      田中智大, 市川 温, 萬 和明, 立川康人
    • Organizer
      第62回水工学講演会, 2018年3月5日~7日、岡山大学津島キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Future river discharge projections at the Indochinese peninsula using large ensemble climate dataset2018

    • Author(s)
      Patinya HANITTINAN, Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Yutaka ICHIKAWA, Kazuaki YOROZU
    • Organizer
      第62回水工学講演会, 2018年3月5日~7日、岡山大学津島キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Prediction of extreme rainfall events and floods under a changing climate using d4PDF2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Tomohiro TANAKA, , Kohei MIYAWAKI, Kazuaki YOROZU, ICHIKAWA
    • Organizer
      AOGS2017, August, 2017, Singapore
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Validation of a rainfall-based approach for flood frequencies and a flood risk curve estimations using super multiple ensemble rainfall data by d4PDF2017

    • Author(s)
      Tomohiro Tanaka, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka Ichikawa, Kazuaki Yorozu
    • Organizer
      AOGS2017, August, 2017, Singapore
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Future Change Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and Floods Using Large Ensemble Climate Simulation Data2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuto TACHIKAWA
    • Organizer
      International Symposium of the 11th SSMS and the 5th RCND 2017 20-21 September, 2017, Bangkok, Thailand
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Future Change Analysis of Extreme Floods in the Indochinese Peninsula Using Large Ensemble Climate Simulation Data2017

    • Author(s)
      Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Patinya HANITTINAN, Kazuaki YOROZU, Yutaka ICHIKAWA
    • Organizer
      UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management, SEDA Hotel, Quezon Philippines, November 15-16, 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] d4PDFを用いた庄内川流域での最大クラスの 外水氾濫の分析2017

    • Author(s)
      清原桂子, 田中智大, 立川康人, 宮脇航平, 市川温, 萬和明, 2017
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2017年総会・研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Statistical Analysis of Differences Between Probability Distribution of the Annual Maximum Daily Discharge Derived from Multiple SSTs Scenarios of the d4PDF Datasets at the Indochinese Peninsula2017

    • Author(s)
      Patinya HANITTINAN, Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Yutaka ICHIKAWA, Kazuaki YOROZU
    • Organizer
      AOGS2017, August 11, 2017, Singapore
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Funded Workshop] The 27th UNESCO International Hydrological Programme Regional Steering Committee Meeting for Asia and the Pacific, 29-31, October, 2019, Naypyidaw, Myanmar2019

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] The 26th UNESCO International Hydrological Programme Regional Steering Committee Meeting for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, 3-15, November, 2018, Shanghai, China2018

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] The 25th UNESCO International Hydrological Programme Regional Steering Committee Meeting for Southeast Asia and the Pacific2017

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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