| Budget Amount *help |
¥11,440,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,640,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A methodology for constructing a "data-driven simulator", which is a probablisitic model derived from observation data to efficiently generate various synthetic scenarios, has been developed. In particular, this study focuses on natural phenomena which is controlled by physical quantities with variable spatial structure. The uncertainties of the spatial structures of the physical quantities are represented by a statistical model such as the Gaussian process model to allow us to consider various scenarios due to the variations of the physical quantities. A synthetic scenario is then generated by sampling from a conditional distribution given the time history of each phenomenon. The proposed technique was applied to some practical problems: evolution of typhoon trajectories, seismic activities, and auroral activities.
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