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Research for estimation method of population after disaster considering relocation of industrial facilities

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H02048
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

HIROI U  東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 准教授 (50456141)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 関谷 直也  東京大学, 大学院情報学環・学際情報学府, 准教授 (30422405)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,990,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥5,590,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,290,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥5,590,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,290,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥6,110,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,410,000)
Keywordsシミュレーション / 疎開 / 復興 / 疎開シミュレーション / 国土復興シミュレーション / 産業立地 / 人口移動 / 南海トラフ巨大地震 / 熊本地震 / 東日本大震災 / 広域避難 / 震災時疎開 / 復興シミュレーション / 産業施設の再配置
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we developed a simulation to forecast population change in the mid to long term after a huge disaster occurs.
This is not only for the evacuation phase, but also for the period of moving people to permanent housing in several damage patterns and scenarios.
Outputs in this study are two types of migrant simulation. And we verified the accuracy of the simulations based on the cases of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は,これまで筆者らが行ってきた福島原子力発電所周辺からの広域避難調査や南海トラフ巨大地震時における疎開シミュレーションなどの検討を経て,これまで学術研究として行われてこなかった復興時の人口変動を予測するシミュレーションを初めて開発した.現状では,東日本大震災時の現実の人口増減数と比較した結果,人口増加側の精度に問題がある.しかし,これらの課題が解決されれば事前復興計画の策定や,被災を踏まえた広域地方計画を作成する際の有用な基礎資料となるものと考えられる.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (3 results)

All 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Trends of Measures in Disaster Recovery Plans:Focusing on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake2020

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Goto and U HIROI
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Disaster Research

      Volume: 15 Pages: 226-232

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 害リスクが関東大都市圏の賃貸住宅市場に与える影響-賃料・専有面積による市場区分と地域間の差異に注目して-2019

    • Author(s)
      久保田映希,廣井悠
    • Journal Title

      都市計画論文集

      Volume: 54-3 Pages: 1153-1160

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The Study of construction and verification about Refuge Simulation after Catastrophic Disaster2018

    • Author(s)
      廣井悠,斉藤健太,福和伸夫
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan

      Volume: 53 Issue: 3 Pages: 897-904

    • DOI

      10.11361/journalcpij.53.897

    • NAID

      130008162588

    • ISSN
      0916-0647, 2185-0593
    • Year and Date
      2018-10-25
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access

URL: 

Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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