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Empirical evaluation of disaster management policy by quasi-experimental method.

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H02072
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
Research InstitutionKansai University

Principal Investigator

Nagamatsu Shingo  関西大学, 社会安全学部, 教授 (90335331)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 松浦 広明  松蔭大学, 公私立大学の部局等, 准教授 (60751914)
直井 道生  慶應義塾大学, 経済学部(三田), 准教授 (70365477)
佐藤 慶一  専修大学, ネットワーク情報学部, 教授 (90424192)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,750,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥10,660,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,460,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
KeywordsDID / 被害想定 / 南海トラフ巨大地震 / 人口移動 / 住宅再建 / 復興 / 生活再建 / ソーシャルキャピタル / 災害 / 疑似実験 / 防災政策 / 災害復興 / 防災投資 / 差分の差分分析 / 不連続回帰分析 / 防災 / リスク / 地価 / 回帰ねじれデザイン / 傾向スコア / 復興過程 / 原子力災害 / 地震保険 / 耐震化 / インセンティブ
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study intends to quantitatively examine the impact of disaster reduction policy by applying a quasi-experimental technique. We conducted the following two studies. First, we examine the possibility that the disaster damage prediction of the anticipated Nankai megathrust earthquake might have reduced the local population in the severe damage area. The DID analysis finds that an increase in predicted tsunami height, rather than anticipated seismic movements, after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. Second, we investigated the impact of the housing recovery process on the subjective evaluation of QOL of the affected people. Controlling the effect of income and location finds that the housing recovery types do not have a significant effect on housing recovery type. On the other hand, the increase in the social capital of those who live in temporary houses and public houses is smaller than those who live in their own houses.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の意義は、従来エビデンスに基づく議論が十分に行われていなかった防災・減災政策において、疑似実験的手法による政策効果の分析を導入したことにある。まず被害想定の効果については、主に人口の減少をもたらしたのが生産年齢人口においてであることから、地域の人口の年齢構成が高齢化し、被害想定によってむしろ地域が脆弱になっていることが確認され、今後の被害想定のあり方を見直す必要性が示唆された。また住宅再建については、公営住宅に居住している人々の生活満足度が低いとしても、必ずしも住宅そのものやその立地に起因するものではないが、転居を繰り返すことにより社会的に孤立するという問題が指摘された。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (45 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (5 results) Journal Article (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (21 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 15 results,  Invited: 4 results) Book (6 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Southern California(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Southern California/Columbia Univrsity/Princeton University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna(イタリア)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] European Commission(ベルギー)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Southern California(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Natural Hazard Information and Migration across Cities: Evidence from the Anticipated Nankai Trough Earthquake2020

    • Author(s)
      Naoi, M., K. Sato, Y. Tanaka, H. Matsuura and S. Nagamatsu
    • Journal Title

      Population and Environment

      Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 452-479

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11111-020-00346-6

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 仮設住宅の居住環境改善の声を誰に届けるのか?2020

    • Author(s)
      佐藤慶一
    • Journal Title

      東京大学社会科学研究所SSJDA Research Paper Series

      Volume: 72 Pages: 53-70

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster2019

    • Author(s)
      Nagamatsu Shingo、Rose Adam、Eyer Jonathan
    • Journal Title

      Risk Analysis

      Volume: 40 Issue: 4 Pages: 800-817

    • DOI

      10.1111/risa.13432

    • NAID

      120007180573

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 岩手県大槌町における災害ツーリズムの貨幣価値の推計2019

    • Author(s)
      永松伸吾・辻萌奈美
    • Journal Title

      地域安全学会論文集

      Volume: 35 Pages: 13-20

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 回帰不連続デザインによる実証分析2018

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Journal Title

      社会と調査

      Volume: 21 Pages: 92-99

    • NAID

      40021698973

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 南海トラフ巨大地震による想定津波高と市区町村間人口移動の実証分析2018

    • Author(s)
      直井道生・佐藤慶一・永松伸吾・松浦広明
    • Journal Title

      New ESRI Working Paper

      Volume: 45 Pages: 1-36

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of the fiscal impact on Japanese governments of Anticipated Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake2018

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Miyazaki and Shingo Nagamatsu
    • Journal Title

      経済学研究院ディスカッション・ペーパー

      Volume: 1 Pages: 1-22

    • NAID

      40021663161

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Household Mortgage Demand: Role of Mortgage Market Institutions2018

    • Author(s)
      Naoi, M., P. Tiwari, Y. Moriizumi, N. Yukutake, N. Hutchson, A. Kovlyakova and J. Rao
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis

      Volume: 近刊

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 想定首都直下地震の危機対応学2018

    • Author(s)
      佐藤慶一
    • Journal Title

      京大学社会科学研究所 全所的プロジェクト研究 危機対応の社会科学(危機対応学) ディスカッションペーパーシリーズ

      Volume: 4 Pages: 27-27

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 住宅・土地統計調査を利用した分析2018

    • Author(s)
      佐藤慶一
    • Journal Title

      統計

      Volume: 2018年3月 Pages: 19-25

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 南海トラフ巨大地震による想定津波高と市区町村間人口移動の実証分析2018

    • Author(s)
      直井道生、佐藤慶一、永松伸吾、松浦広明
    • Journal Title

      New ESRI Working Paper

      Volume: 45 Pages: 43-43

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The Asymmetric Housing Wealth Effect on Childbirth2017

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, S. and M. Naoi
    • Journal Title

      Review of Economics of the Household

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 4 Pages: 1-25

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11150-016-9355-8

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 想定首都直下地震後の応急居住広域化の可能性と政策的検討2017

    • Author(s)
      佐藤慶一
    • Journal Title

      地域安全学会論文集

      Volume: 31 Pages: 155-166

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Disaster Risk Finance in Japan: Need for Shift from Government to Governance2019

    • Author(s)
      Shingo Nagamatsu
    • Organizer
      International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Mnagament (IDRiM)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 岩手県大槌町における災害ツーリズムの貨幣価値の推計2019

    • Author(s)
      永松伸吾
    • Organizer
      地域安全学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Post-Disaster Assistance, Local Government Spending and the Samaritan Dilemma2019

    • Author(s)
      Michio Naoi
    • Organizer
      Econometrics Seminar (University of Southern California)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A Research Based Policy Implementation of Temporary Housing Preparations for an Anticipated Natural Disaster2019

    • Author(s)
      Keiichi Sato
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Sustainable Development 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Does community resilience mitigate the perceived risk of megathrust earthquakes among Japanese and foreign residents?2019

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Matsuura
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Sustainable Development 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Economic and Demographic Effects of Emergency Risk Communication: Evidence from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster2018

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Matsuura
    • Organizer
      ETH Zurich Institute of Science, Technology and Policy Colloquium
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Economic and Demographic Effects of Emergency Risk Communication: Evidence from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster2018

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Matsuura
    • Organizer
      University of Pennsylvania Risk Regulation Seminar
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] The Impact of the Kobe Earthquake Damage and Reconstruction Projects on the Regional Population2018

    • Author(s)
      K.Sato and N.Maki
    • Organizer
      The 18th Science Council of Asia Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Natural Hazard Information and Migration across Cities: Evidence from the Nankai Trough Earthquake2018

    • Author(s)
      Naoi, M., K. Sato, S. Nagamatsu, and H. Matsuura
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Sustainable Development 2017 (Columbia University)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Post-Disaster Assistance, Local Government Spending, and the Samaritan's Dilemma2018

    • Author(s)
      Naoi, M., and S. Nagamatsu
    • Organizer
      応用地域学会2018年研究発表大会(南山大学)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Effect of the housing recovery process on the people who faced damages caused by the Great East Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Taketo Shizuma and Shingo Nagamatsu
    • Organizer
      Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How did the impact of two earthquake risk assessments on land price changed?2018

    • Author(s)
      Kengo Imaizumi and Shingo Nagamatsu
    • Organizer
      Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Population Repatriation of Migrants Following the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster2018

    • Author(s)
      Shingo Nagamatsu, Jonathan Eyer, and Adam Rose
    • Organizer
      Symposium on Population Migration and Repatriation Following Major Disasters, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States.
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Natural Hazard Information and Migration across Cities: Evidence from the Nankai Trough Earthquake2017

    • Author(s)
      Naoi, M.
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Sustainable Development 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Natural Hazard Information and Migration across Cities: Evidence from the Nankai Trough Earthquake2017

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Organizer
      応用地域学会2017年研究発表大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Recent Japanese Cases and Problems of Widespread Migration Following Massive Disasters2017

    • Author(s)
      K. Sato
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Sustainable Development 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 利用目的に応じたミクロシミュレーションモデルの調整と課題2017

    • Author(s)
      佐藤慶一,伊藤伸介,松浦浩明
    • Organizer
      2017年度経済統計学会大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 都心商業集積地の防災課題の整理と対応策の具体化2017

    • Author(s)
      佐藤慶一,大矢根淳,吉井博明
    • Organizer
      日本災害情報学会第19 回学会大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] クライストチャーチ地震における意見集約事業の実際2017

    • Author(s)
      小林秀行,佐藤慶一
    • Organizer
      日本災害情報学会第19 回学会大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ‘Building Back Better’ Tohoku: A Contradicting Evidence2017

    • Author(s)
      Shingo Nagamatsu
    • Organizer
      Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) Society
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Probabilistic or Deterministic: which risk does market reflect on land prices?2017

    • Author(s)
      Kengo Imaizumi and Shingo Nagamatsu
    • Organizer
      International Disaster Risk Conference
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 人口変動と家族の実証分析(第3章「国内人口移動の現状と変動要因」分担執筆)2020

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Total Pages
      31
    • Publisher
      慶應義塾大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 政策情報論2019

    • Author(s)
      佐藤 慶一
    • Total Pages
      240
    • Publisher
      共立出版
    • ISBN
      4320096479
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Natural Disasters and Risk Communication: Implications of the Cascadia Subduction Zone Megaquake2018

    • Author(s)
      Fletcher, C. V. and J. Lovejoy
    • Total Pages
      266
    • Publisher
      Lexington Press
    • ISBN
      1498556116
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Fukushima and Tohoku Disaster: A Review of the Five-Year Reconstruction Efforts2018

    • Author(s)
      Faculty of Social Safety Sciences, Kansai University (ed.)
    • Total Pages
      354
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • ISBN
      012814078X
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] マイナス金利下における金融・不動産市場の読み方(第14章「家計の流動性制約と転居行動の実証分析」を分担執筆)2017

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜・隅田和人・直井道生
    • Total Pages
      256
    • Publisher
      東洋経済新報社
    • ISBN
      9784492961285
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Fukushima and Tohoku Disaster: A Review of the Five-Year Reconstruction Efforts2017

    • Author(s)
      Faculty of Social Safety Sciences, Kansai University ed.
    • Total Pages
      354
    • Publisher
      Elsevier Inc.
    • ISBN
      9780128140789
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2022-05-20  

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