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The Political Economy of Deflation: Prices, Public Opinion, and Governance

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H02478
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Politics
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

MCELWAIN KENNETH  東京大学, 社会科学研究所, 教授 (80768896)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 加藤 淳子  東京大学, 大学院法学政治学研究科(法学部), 教授 (00251314)
松本 朋子  東京理科大学, 理学部第一部教養学科, 講師 (50783601)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥6,890,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,590,000)
Keywordsデフレーション / 経済認識 / 政党支持 / 政府業績評価 / コロナ政策 / 憲法改正 / 内閣支持 / デフレ脱却 / コロナ / 世論調査実験 / 緊急政策 / テキスト分析 / 世論 / 政治経済学 / 実験 / マルチメソッド / 金融政策 / 政策決定 / メディア
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The Japanese government has made overcoming deflation a cornerstone of its economic policies, but price increases may not be popular with voters, making such policies politically risky. Using historical public opinion data, we showed that real price increases negatively affect voters’ perceptions of the state of the economy, which in turn also negatively impact cabinet approval rates. In addition, we designed survey experiments to show that subjective perceptions of the economy are influenced by economic news, such as the release of official GDP data, regardless of respondents’ partisanship. We also examined how COVID-19 altered citizens’ economic behaviors through original surveys.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

民主主義政府は世論に耳を傾ける必要があるが、その結果、長期的には社会経済的利益を生むが短期的には有権者の批判を受ける政策の実施を躊躇する恐れがある。例えば、インフレ予想は民間消費を刺激し、企業投資を活発化させるが、有権者は物価上昇を嫌う傾向がある。本プロジェクトでは、既存の調査データや独自の世論調査実験を用いて、国民が主観的に経済をどのように捉え、経済政策の目標をどのように評価しているのかを検証し、なぜ政府は長期的な繁栄をもたらす政策を必ずしも優先しないかを明らかにする。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 10 results,  Invited: 4 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] The Bright and Dark Sides of Social Media Usage during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Survey Evidence from Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Susumu Cato, Takashi Iida, Kenji Ishida, Asei Ito, Hiroto Katsumata, Kenneth Mori McElwain, and Masahiro Shoji
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

      Volume: 54 Pages: 102034-102034

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.102034

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The proposer or the proposal? An experimental analysis of constitutional beliefs2021

    • Author(s)
      McElwain Kenneth Mori、Eshima Shusei、Winkler Christian G.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Political Science

      Volume: 22 Issue: 1 Pages: 15-39

    • DOI

      10.1017/s1468109921000025

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] When candidates are more polarised than voters: constitutional revision in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      McElwain Kenneth Mori
    • Journal Title

      European Political Science

      Volume: 19 Issue: 4 Pages: 528-539

    • DOI

      10.1057/s41304-020-00270-1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Social distancing as a public good under the COVID-19 pandemic2020

    • Author(s)
      Susumu Cato, Takashi Iida, Kenji Ishida, Asei Ito, Kenneth Mori McElwain, Masahiro Shoji
    • Journal Title

      Public Health

      Volume: 108 Pages: 51-53

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.puhe.2020.08.005

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report 2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] The Clash of Traditional Values: Attitudes toward a Male-Line Monarchy under a Succession Crisis2021

    • Author(s)
      McElwain Kenneth Mori
    • Organizer
      Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] International Law as Legal Obligations or Global Standards? Experimental Evidence from Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Kuzushima Saki
    • Organizer
      The Japanese Society for Quantitative Political Science
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Tax and Inequality Constraints on redistribution and revenue-raising2020

    • Author(s)
      Kato Junko
    • Organizer
      The Council for European Studies Insights Webinar Series, “Rising Inequality in Europe and East Asia: What Are the Causes and What Can Be Done?"
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 再分配政策に対する有権者の態度――米英日瑞の多国間サーヴェイ2020

    • Author(s)
      松本朋子
    • Organizer
      日本国際政治学会2020年度研究大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 福祉給付と税負担に対する有権者の態度-米英日スウェーデンのサーヴェイ実験2020

    • Author(s)
      松本朋子、岡田謙介、加藤淳子
    • Organizer
      日本比較政治学会第23回大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Convergence and Divergence of Mass-Elite Political Cleavages2019

    • Author(s)
      McElwain Kenneth Mori
    • Organizer
      European Consortium for Political Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Gender and Constitutional Revision in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      McElwain Kenneth Mori
    • Organizer
      European Conference on Politics and Gender
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How to Fix Over-Redistricting2019

    • Author(s)
      McElwain Kenneth Mori
    • Organizer
      International Association of Schools and Institutes of Administration
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Generational Differences in Economic Perceptions: Postwar Japan in Historical Context2018

    • Author(s)
      Kenneth McElwain, Tomoko Matsumoto, Junko Kato, Kensuke Okada
    • Organizer
      2018 International Political Science Association Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Why Do Government Deficits Prevail? A Survey Experiment on Budget Making2018

    • Author(s)
      Kenneth McElwain, Tomoko Matsumoto, Junko Kato
    • Organizer
      2018 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Informing vs. Influencing Public Discourse2018

    • Author(s)
      Kenneth McElwain
    • Organizer
      German Association for Social Science Research on Japan
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Why do government deficits prevail?: Perception of chronic budget deficit matters more than information about the cost of government debt2018

    • Author(s)
      Tomoko Matsumoto and Junko Kato
    • Organizer
      Experimental Social Science Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Social investment and financing the welfare state2018

    • Author(s)
      Junko Kato
    • Organizer
      The 16th East Asian Social Policy Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Deflation and Government Approval2017

    • Author(s)
      McElwain, Kenneth
    • Organizer
      7th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Generational Differences in Economic Perceptions: Postwar Japan in Historical Context2017

    • Author(s)
      McElwain, Kenneth
    • Organizer
      113th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] The Crisis of Liberal Internationalism: Japan and the World Order2020

    • Author(s)
      Funabashi Yoichi, Ikenberry G. John
    • Total Pages
      415
    • Publisher
      Brookings Institution Press
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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