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Examination of level 1.5 earthquake and tsunami in eastern edge of Nankai Trough, Japan

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H02972
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Geology
Research InstitutionShizuoka University

Principal Investigator

Akihisa Kitamura  静岡大学, 理学部, 教授 (20260581)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 横山 祐典  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (10359648)
豊福 高志  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 超先鋭研究開発部門(超先鋭技術開発プログラム), 主任研究員 (30371719)
宮入 陽介  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 特任研究員 (30451800)
原田 賢治  静岡大学, 防災総合センター, 准教授 (40378922)
菅原 大助  ふじのくに地球環境史ミュージアム, 学芸課, 教授 (50436078)
山田 和芳  ふじのくに地球環境史ミュージアム, 学芸課, 教授 (60508167)
佐藤 善輝  国立研究開発法人産業技術総合研究所, 地質調査総合センター, 研究員 (60751071)
三井 雄太  静岡大学, 理学部, 講師 (80717950)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥13,650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,150,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥5,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,380,000)
Keywords南海トラフ / 海溝型地震 / 津波 / レベル1地震・津波 / レベル2地震・津波 / レベル1.5地震・津波 / 干潟堆積物 / 堆積相解析 / 高潮堆積物 / 安政型地震 / 西暦400年地震 / レベル1.5地震 / レベル1.5津波 / 津波堆積物 / 南海・駿河トラフ / 正平(康安)東海地震 / 貝類群集 / 酸素同位体比 / 駿河トラフ / 完新統 / 地震 / 駿河・南海トラフ / レベル1.5の地震・津波 / 海底地滑り / 分岐断層 / 南海トラフ東部 / 完新世 / レベル1.5
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The Japanese government presented simulations of possible maximum seismic movements and tsunami heights (termed Level 2 earthquakes and tsunamis) caused by Nankai megathrust earthquakes, based on recognition of mega-tsunami at the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Kitamura and co-workers examined tsunami deposits in Shizuoka prefecture, and showed that there is no evidence for a Level 2 tsunami over the past 4000 years. But, two Level 1.5 earthquakes and tsunamis, which are larger than level 1, but smaller than level 2, were detected. One is occurrence of megathrust earthquake and the earthquake-induced active of splay fault at Omaezaki. The other is increase in tsunami wave height was caused by earthquake-induced submarine landslides at Yaizu. This study shows the following findings: (1) The AD1361 Shohei (Koan)Tokai earthquake caused >2.5 m uplift at Omaezaki; (2) Megathrust earthquake occurred at ca AD400 at Suruga Trough. Scientific data of analysis of Yaizu Plain has been submitted.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

静岡県内では,レベル2津波の痕跡は見つかっていないが,レベル1.5地震・津波の痕跡は複数検出された.これは,次の南海トラフの地震・津波(30年以内の発生確率60-70%)がレベル2となる可能性はほぼないが,レベル1.5地震・津波の発生は十分あることを意味する.本研究によって,御前崎周辺の「レベル1地震」と「分岐断層の活動」の連動は,再発間隔が1700-2500年間で,かつ最新の発生が1361年正平(康安)東海地震であることが判明したので,次の南海トラフ大地震で起きる可能性は極めて低い.一方,地震による海底地滑りの発生の可能性は十分あるので備える必要がある.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (26 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Journal Article (11 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 9 results,  Open Access: 9 results) Presentation (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Emerged fossils of the boring bivalves at the wave-cut platform on the coast of Cape Omaezaki, Shizuoka, Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿・池田昌之
    • Journal Title

      Fossils

      Volume: 107 Issue: 0 Pages: 1-2

    • DOI

      10.14825/kaseki.107.0_1

    • NAID

      130007831188

    • ISSN
      0022-9202, 2424-2632
    • Year and Date
      2020-03-30
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Identifying storm surge deposits in the muddy intertidal zone of Ena Bay, Central Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Kitamura, A., Yamamoto, Y., Harada, K., Toyofuku, T.
    • Journal Title

      Marine Geology

      Volume: - Pages: 106228-106228

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.margeo.2020.106228

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Examination of level 1.5 earthquake and tsunami in eastern edge of Nankai Trough, Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Akihisa Kitamura
    • Journal Title

      Impact

      Volume: 2020 Issue: 3 Pages: 23-25

    • DOI

      10.21820/23987073.2020.3.23

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Geologic evidence for coseismic uplift at AD 400 in coastal lowland deposits on the Shimizu Plain, central Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Kitamura, A., Ina, T., Suzuki, D., Tsutahara, K., Sugawara, D., Yamada, K., Aoshima, A.
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 6 Issue: 1 Pages: 57-57

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-019-0305-y

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Combined analysis of sulfur and carbon contents, and foraminifer as paleoenvironmental indicators in tidal flat sediments on Miura Peninsula, Japan.2019

    • Author(s)
      Kitamura, A., Yamamoto, Y., Yamada, K., Kubo, A., Toyofuku, T., Nakagawa, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

      Volume: 226 Pages: 106256-106256

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106256

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 津波の発生した季節を貝殻から解明2019

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿
    • Journal Title

      Isotope News

      Volume: 2 Pages: 18-21

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The discovery of emerged boring bivalves at Cape Omaezaki, Shizuoka, Japan: Evidence for the 1361 CE Tokai earthquake along the Nankai Trough2018

    • Author(s)
      Kitamura A., Seki Y., Kitamura Y., Haga T.
    • Journal Title

      Marine Geology

      Volume: 405 Pages: 114-119

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.margeo.2018.08.006

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Using molluscan assemblages from paleotsunami deposits to evaluate the influence of topography on the magnitude of late Holocene mega-tsunamis on Ishigaki Island, Japan.2018

    • Author(s)
      Kitamura, A., Ito, M., Ikuta, R., Ikeda, M.
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 5 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-018-0200-y

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Identification of tsunami deposits using a combination of radiometric dating and oxygen-isotope profiles of articulated bivalves2018

    • Author(s)
      Kitamura A.、Ito M.、Sakai S.、Yokoyama Y.、Miyairi Y.
    • Journal Title

      Marine Geology

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 1-5

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.margeo.2018.04.003

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 伊豆半島南東部静岡県河津町の海岸低地における津波堆積物調査2018

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿・三井雄太・石橋秀巳・森 英樹
    • Journal Title

      静岡大学地球科学研究報告

      Volume: 45 Pages: 1-16

    • NAID

      130008118499

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Late Holocene uplift of the Izu Islands on the northern Zenisu Ridge off Central Japan2017

    • Author(s)
      Kitamura Akihisa、Imai Takafumi、Mitsui Yuta、Ito Mami、Miyairi Yosuke、Yokoyama Yusuke、Tokuda Yuki
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-17

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-017-0146-5

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 2017年台風21号による高潮堆積物の形成2020

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿・山本有夏・原田賢治・豊福高志
    • Organizer
      日本古生物学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 三浦半島の現世干潟堆積物に関する堆積学的・地球化学的・古生物学的解析2019

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿・山本有夏・山田和芳・久保篤史・豊福高志・中川友紀
    • Organizer
      日本第四紀学会2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 活動縁辺域の沿岸泥地における堆積環境の同定のための古生物学的・地球化学的指標の検討2019

    • Author(s)
      山本有夏・北村晃寿・久保篤史・山田和芳・豊福高志
    • Organizer
      日本古生物学会第168回例会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 三浦半島江奈湾干潟の堆積物中のCNS元素分析2018

    • Author(s)
      山本 有夏,北村 晃寿,山田 和芳
    • Organizer
      2018年日本地球惑星科学連合大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 御前崎の隆起貝層の再発見2018

    • Author(s)
      北村 晃寿
    • Organizer
      2018年日本地球惑星科学連合大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 先島諸島における津波堆積物の“埋蔵地”の発見2018

    • Author(s)
      北村 晃寿
    • Organizer
      2018年日本地球惑星科学連合大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 御前崎の隆起貝層の再発見2018

    • Author(s)
      北村 晃寿
    • Organizer
      日本古生物学会年会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 静岡県御前崎の隆起貝層の穿孔貝の種の改訂について2018

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿・芳賀拓真
    • Organizer
      日本第四紀学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 中部日本,北部銭洲海嶺上に位置する伊豆諸島北部の後期完新世の隆起:西暦1498年明応地震の波源域の含蓄2017

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿・三井雄太・宮入陽介・横山祐典・徳田悠希
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 東京都三宅島における離水した海洋固着生物化石の発見2017

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿・今井啓文・宮入陽介・横山祐典・井龍康文
    • Organizer
      日本古生物学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 伊豆諸島に見られる海生生物遺骸の固着した「打ち上げ巨礫」2017

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿
    • Organizer
      日本第四紀学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 伊豆諸島四島の後期完新世の地殻変動・津波・高潮2017

    • Author(s)
      北村晃寿
    • Organizer
      日本地質学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 静岡の大規模自然災害の科学2020

    • Author(s)
      静岡大学防災総合センター 岩田孝仁、北村晃寿、小山真人
    • Total Pages
      256
    • Publisher
      静岡新聞社
    • ISBN
      9784783805557
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 北村研究室

    • URL

      http://akihisakitamura.la.coocan.jp/

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Annual Research Report 2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 静岡大学教員データベース

    • URL

      https://tdb.shizuoka.ac.jp/RDB/public/Default2.aspx?id=10983&l=0

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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