美味しさと安全をより確実に！殺菌効果と食品品質の確率論的な新たな評価方法の開発

• Project/Area Number: 17J04163
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 国内
• Research Field: Food science
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: 小山 健斗 北海道大学, 農学院, 特別研究員(DC1)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-26 – 2020-03-31
• Project Status: Declined (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
• Keywords: 微生物学的安全性 / サルモネラ / 確率 / 食中毒 / 予測

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本研究では食品の品質と殺菌効果とを両立させる安全性理論の構築を目的とする。少数の細菌で食中毒を引き起こす腸管出血性大腸菌とサルモネラを用いる。対象とする細菌集団が完全に死滅する時間を確率分布で表記し，細菌集団の死滅条件を確率に裏付けられた方法で設定する。例えば，「〇〇°C△△分以上加熱殺菌した場合，サルモネラ10万個は99.99%の確率で完全に死滅する。」といった殺菌条件を提示する。確率論に裏付けされた殺菌条件に加え，食品の品質と安全性のバランスを考える。確率論の知見に基づき品質劣化を最小限に抑えつつ，安全面も許容レベルにできるといった殺菌効果と品質保持の両面における最適化を可能とする殺菌条件を提示する。新たな安全性評価理論の構築により，実際の殺菌工程における殺菌条件の設定において，“どの程度の確率で対象とする細菌集団が完全に死滅したか？”といった製造業者やリスク評価者の関心事への回答を可能とする。今年度は，サルモネラの死滅・及び増殖をベイズ統計モデルによって解析した。滞在先のギリシャでのディスカッションの結果，不確実性を考慮したモデルづくりに着手することになった。国際共同論文の作成にいたり現在論文を2報投稿中である。今後も共同研究を引き続き行っていき，食品の品質と殺菌効果を両立させる安全性理論について研究を進めていく。

Research Progress Status

翌年度、交付申請を辞退するため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

翌年度、交付申請を辞退するため、記入しない。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] アリストテレス大学テッサロニキ(ギリシャ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] アリストテレス大学テッサロニキ(ギリシャ)
• [Journal Article] Stochastic simulation for death probability of bacterial population considering variability in individual cell inactivation time and initial number of cells (2019)
  • Author(s): Koyama Kento、Abe Hiroki、Kawamura Shuso、Koseki Shigenobu
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Food Microbiology Volume: 290 Pages: 125-131
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2018.10.009
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Calculating stochastic inactivation of individual cells in a bacterial population using variability in individual cell inactivation time and initial cell number (2019)
  • Author(s): Koyama Kento、Abe Hiroki、Kawamura Shuso、Koseki Shige
  • Journal Title: Journal of Theoretical Biology Volume: 469 Pages: 172-179
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.01.042
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Stochastic modeling of variability in survival behavior of Bacillus simplex spore population during isothermal inactivation at the single cell level using a Monte Carlo simulation (2019)
  • Author(s): Abe Hiroki、Koyama Kento、Kawamura Shuso、Koseki Shigenobu
  • Journal Title: Food Microbiology Volume: 82 Pages: 436-444
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fm.2019.03.005
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Stochastic evaluation of Salmonella enterica lethality during thermal inactivation (2018)
  • Author(s): Abe Hiroki、Koyama Kento、Kawamura Shuso、Koseki Shigenobu
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Food Microbiology Volume: 285 Pages: 129-135
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2018.08.006
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Estimation of the probability of bacterial population survival: Development of a probability model to describe the variability in time to inactivation of Salmonella enterica (2017)
  • Author(s): Kento Koyama, Hidekazu Hokunan, Mayumi Hasegawa, Shuso Kawamura, Shigenobu Koseki
  • Journal Title: Food Microbiology Volume: 68 Pages: 121-128
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fm.2017.07.007
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Reinterpretation of the mathematical description of variability in bacterial growth using stochastic analysis of individual cell division times, and its application using a computer simulation (2018)
  • Author(s): Kento Koyama, Hiroki Abe, Shuso Kawamura, Shige Koseki
  • Organizer: International Association for Food Protection 2018 Annual meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Mathematical description of variability in bacterial growth using individual cell division time via stochastic analysis and computer simulation (2018)
  • Author(s): Kento Koyama, Hiroki Abe, Shuso Kawamura, Shige Koseki
  • Organizer: Food Micro 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Stochastic Aplication of Double Weibull Model to Describe Individual Cell Time to Death Heterogeneity as Variability Sourcein Microbial Heat Inactivation (2018)
  • Author(s): Zafiro Aspridou, Kento Koyama, Shigenobu Koseki, Konstantinos Kousoumanis
  • Organizer: Food Micro 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Predictive Modeling Using a Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate the Probability of Bacterial Spore Survival. (2018)
  • Author(s): Hiroki Abe, Kento Koyama, Shuso Kawamura, Shige Koseki
  • Organizer: International Association for Food Protection 2018 Annual meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 確率論に基づいた細菌集団死滅挙動の再解釈 (2017)
  • Author(s): 小山健斗，安部大樹，川村周三，小関成樹
  • Organizer: 農業食料工学会
• [Presentation] Development of a Probability Model to Describe the Variability in the Time to Inactivation of Salmonella enterica (2017)
  • Author(s): Kento Koyama, Hiroki Abe, Shuso Kawamura, Shige Koseki
  • Organizer: International association for food protection annual meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Describing time-to-inactivation of bacterial population, using individual cell heterogeneity via computer simulation (2017)
  • Author(s): Kento Koyama, Hiroki Abe, Shuso Kawamura, Shige Koseki
  • Organizer: 10th International Conference of Predictive Modelling in Food
  • Int'l Joint Research