| Project/Area Number |
17K01336
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | Risk management / Natech / Disaster prevention / Industry / Chemical accidents / Rating systems / Area-wide / Resilience / disaster prevention / resilience / industrial accident / risk governance / Disaster risk reduction / Industrial accident / Hazardous materials / Resilience engineering / Natural hazards / Combinato / Hazardous material / Oil and gas industry / Natural hazard / Rating system / Performance / industry / risk assessment / risk management / hazardous materials / disaster reduction / technological accident / rating system |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A comprehensive risk management and performance rating system was developed to assess and manage the risk at industrial parks due to natural hazard triggered chemical accidents (Natechs). A machine learning semi-intelligent framework to extract Natech accident from large databases was developed, and we used graph theory to map and analyze risk factors in the Natech event chains. We investigated the temporal-spatial variation of the incidence of tropical storms-related Natechs, and the accumulated cyclone energy and other variables, suggesting an indirect link between climate change and the incidence of Natechs. Also, an empirical estimation of the probability of tropical storm-related Natechs in the United States from 1990 to 2017, and for several IPCC future scenarios was carried out, confirming an increasing trend. Finally, through field investigations of Natechs in Japan and abroad, and through multistakeholder meetings the results of the research were validated and disseminated.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
The development of the Natech RateMe framework that incorporates ideas of resilience engineering, and proposes a paradigm shift. Risk communication and participatory risk governance are main elements yielding immediate benefits for disaster preparedness, while cultivating a cooperative climate.
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