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Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Policies under Scientific Ambiguity

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K03737
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic policy
Research InstitutionRyukoku University

Principal Investigator

Watanabe Masahide  龍谷大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (50434783)

Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Keywords科学的曖昧性 / 気候変動 / 曖昧性 / 不確実性 / 経済政策 / 経済理論 / 経済統計学 / 環境政策
Outline of Final Research Achievements

There is a need for policy decisions and policy evaluation derived from scientific facts. However, there are multiple predicted probabilities based on multiple scientific models regarding climate change, and such probabilities are uncertain. How such uncertainty in scientific predicted probability (scientific ambiguity) regarding climate change affects people’s preferences for and evaluation of climate change policies has not been empirically clarified. In this study, we estimated an empirical model based on a decision model under ambiguity, using data from a web survey. We clarify the impact of scientific ambiguity regarding climate change on people’s preferences and evaluations of the policies.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

現実の政策評価において、科学的曖昧性が人々の気候変動政策評価へ与える影響を実証的に明らかにした研究はほとんど行われていない。本研究では、曖昧性下の意思決定理論に基づく構造モデルから、科学的曖昧性が気候変動緩和策に与える影響を明らかにした点が、学術的貢献である。また、現実の政策決定においても、科学的曖昧性を考慮することの必要性があることを示した点が、本研究の社会的意義である。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (3 results)

All 2021 2018 2017

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Public trust, perceived accuracy, perceived likelihood, and concern on multi-model climate projections communicated with different formats2021

    • Author(s)
      Toshio Fujimi, Masahide Watanabe, Hirokazu Tatano
    • Journal Title

      Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

      Volume: - Issue: 5 Pages: 1-20

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11027-021-09950-9

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Economic feasibility of Campylobacter-reduced chicken: Do consumers have high willingness to pay?2018

    • Author(s)
      Kawata Yukichika、Watanabe Masahide
    • Journal Title

      Agribusiness

      Volume: 34 Issue: 2 Pages: 222-239

    • DOI

      10.1002/agr.21512

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] What Extent of Welfare Loss is Caused by the Disparity between Perceived and Scientific Risks? A Case Study of Food Irradiation2017

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe Masahide、Kawata Yukichika
    • Journal Title

      The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy

      Volume: 17 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1515/bejeap-2016-0071

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed

URL: 

Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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