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An empirical study on the uncertainty and the ambiguity aversion in Japanese financial markets

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K03803
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionOsaka University

Principal Investigator

Fukuta Yuichi  大阪大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (00243147)

Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords曖昧さ / 不確実性 / 金融論
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Based on the previous studies, we compute the uncertainty measure and the ambiguity measure. We investigate whether both measures affect the excess returns on Japanese stocks or not. We find that, while the uncertainty measure does not affect the excess returns, the ambiguity measure has significant impact on excess stock returns. It is difficult for investors to predict the timing of the ETF purchase executed by the Bank of Japan, because the purchasing policy is not consistent. The ETF purchase policy of the Bank of Japan may increase the ambiguity in the stock markets. We examine the effect of the announcement of the ETF purchase by the Bank of Japan on the Japanese stock prices. We find that the announcement of the ETF purchase by the Bank of Japan mitigate the positive effect on stock prices caused by the announcement monetary easing policy of the Bank of Japan.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本の株式市場では、曖昧さに関する指標が有効な説明力を持つことが明らかにされ、従来の不確実性だけではなく、曖昧性も考慮した分析を行っていくことが重要であるとの含意が得られている。また、日本銀行は、量的・質的記入緩和の政策手段として、株式の1種であるETFおよびJ-REITを購入しているが、その購入方針は一貫しておらず、市場の曖昧性を高めている可能性を否定できない。また、中央銀行による株式購入は、世界的にも珍しく、その効果を分析することは重要である。そこで、日本銀行のETF購入政策アナウンスは、緩和政策による株価押上効果を弱める可能性があることを明らかにしている。

Report

(7 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (1 results)

All Other

All Remarks (1 results)

  • [Remarks] 大阪大学研究者総覧ホームページ

    • URL

      https://rd.iai.osaka-u.ac.jp/ja/0b6eca6016df4dd0.html

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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