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Economic evaluation of the influence of sudden flight cancels by considering the correspondent behavior of the affected passengers

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K06607
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
Research InstitutionTokyo Denki University

Principal Investigator

Takada Kazuyuki  東京電機大学, 理工学部, 教授 (30282867)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 屋井 鉄雄  東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 教授 (10182289)
平田 輝満  茨城大学, 理工学研究科(工学野), 准教授 (80450766)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Keywords突発的キャンセル / 選択行動モデル / 支払い意志額 / 社会調査 / フライトキャンセル / 遭遇確率 / 生存分析 / アンケート調査 / 支払い意志額(WTP) / 行動意図 / 航空 / 対応行動 / 行動モデル / 機会損失 / 突発的フライトキャンセル / 交通行動モデル / 意思決定モデル / 突発的事象 / 旅程変更 / 損失便益
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Internet surveys were conducted in this study. The respondents were limited to the affected travelers by the sudden flight cancel.
Firstly, the intention of the suffered passengers was analyzed. Intention model and success/failure model were estimated. Factors affecting passenger's intention and success/failure results were identified.
Secondly, the willingness to pay for the reduction of flight cancel was analyzed. Survival analysis was utilized to estimate the WTP function. Cox-proportional hazard model was applied. Factors affection WTP were identified. Though it was a personal burden, it became clear that there was a high willingness to pay.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

フライトの突発的欠航は極めて稀にしか生じないため,予め調査フォーマットを用意しておき,事象発生直後に調査を行うことがデータ収集の上で有効であることを示したこと,キャンセルの旅客への影響の緩和策を検討するには,旅客が実際に取った行動ではなく,旅客の取りたかった行動を調査することが必要であることを示したこと,旅客の行動意図とその行動意図の成否に関するモデルを推定し,それらへの影響要因を特定したこと,欠航削減に対する支払い意志額を調査し,生存分析を適用して支払い意志額関数を推定したこと,自己負担であっても欠航削減に対して支払い意志があることを示し,欠航削減の価値を経済的に評価したこと,

Report

(6 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (8 results)

All 2022 2020 2019 2018 2017

All Journal Article (3 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results)

  • [Journal Article] 突発的フライトキャンセル発生時の旅客の行動意図に関する分析2020

    • Author(s)
      高田和幸,宮内弘太,山本真一郎
    • Journal Title

      土木計画研究・講演集

      Volume: 60

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Substitution effect of high speed rail for air transport in case of continuous flight cancellations2018

    • Author(s)
      Kazuyuki Takada, Kota Miyauchi, Makoto Fujiu
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Road and Rail Infrastructure

      Volume: 5 Pages: 1319-1324

    • DOI

      10.5592/co/cetra.2018.837

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] フライトの突発的キャンセル時における 旅客の対応行動に関する分析2017

    • Author(s)
      宮内弘太・高田和幸・村野貴大・藤生慎
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・講演集

      Volume: 56

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Estimating willingness to pay for the reduction of the influence of airport disruption2022

    • Author(s)
      Yukitsugu Kojiya, Kazuyuki Takada, and Yuta Arakawa
    • Organizer
      Air Transport Research Society
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Kazuyuki Takada and Kota Miyauchi: Impact of Sudden Continual Flight Cancels on Travel Behavior, ATRS, 20192019

    • Author(s)
      Kazuyuki Takada and Kota Miyauchi: Impact of Sudden Continual Flight Cancels on Travel Behavior, ATRS, 2019
    • Organizer
      23rd ATRS World Conference
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimating the number of air passengers affected by sudden continual flight cancels by utilizing several air travel survey data2018

    • Author(s)
      K. TAKADA
    • Organizer
      K., MIYAUCHI, K., TAKADA and M., KANEKO
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Analysis of Flight Delay Propagation and Delay Cause in Japanese Domestic Air Transport Network2018

    • Author(s)
      Terumitsu Hirata
    • Organizer
      22nd Air Transport Research Society World Conference, 2018.
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Change in travel behavior of air passengers after runway closure of Haneda Int’l airport caused by KAL 2708 engine fire incident2017

    • Author(s)
      Kota MIYAUCHI, Kazuyuki TAKADA, Makoto FUJIU, Takahiro MURANO (Tokyo Denki University)
    • Organizer
      Air Transportation Research Society
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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