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Physician distribution prediction with complex systems simulation and network theory

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K09196
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Hygiene and public health
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Toyokawa Satoshi  東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 准教授 (40345046)

Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Keywords複雑系 / ネットワーク理論 / 医師供給 / 複雑系シミュレーション / ABM / システムダイナミクス / ネットワーク分析 / 健康医療政策学 / Agent based modeling / 医師分布 / Agent Based Modeling / 健康医療政策 / GIS / 社会医学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

A distribution that follows a power law to characterize a complex system is an efficient distribution of information. It is expected that the distribution of doctors and medical resources will be efficiently distributed. It is expected that the distribution will follow a complex system. In this study, we examined whether we could observe the distribution of doctors according to the power law expected in the network theory of complex systems, using the individual data from the surveys of doctors, dentists, pharmacists and medical facilities, and found that MFICU, NICU, The number of beds and the number of patients using CT in GCU and PICU follow the power distribution, and the result is expected to have the small world characteristic in network theory.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ネットワーク分布に基づいた医療資源の分析について、最も精度の高い医師歯科医師薬剤師調査及び医療施設調査の個票データを用いて分析したことは、本邦で独創的かつ初めての報告である。MFICU、NICU、GCU、PICUは病床数及びCT利用患者数はべき乗分布に従い、ネットワーク理論におけるスモールワールド特性を有することが期待される結果は、コロナウイルスなどの緊急な対応に柔軟に対応できるネットワークを有している可能性が示唆された。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (8 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Contextual Associations of Interregional Income Gap with Physical Constitution and Dietary Environment in Individual Housebound Elderly2020

    • Author(s)
      Okada F, Toyokawa S, Kaneko T, Furuhata T
    • Journal Title

      Global journal of health science

      Volume: 12 Issue: 4 Pages: 94-103

    • DOI

      10.5539/gjhs.v12n4p94

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Frequency of Going Out and Locomotive Syndrome Among Japanese Female Elderlies2020

    • Author(s)
      Okada F, Toyokawa S, Kaneko T, Furuhata T
    • Journal Title

      Global journal of health science

      Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: 80-85

    • DOI

      10.5539/gjhs.v12n1p80

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Obstetric factors associated with uterine rupture in mothers who deliver infants with cerebral palsy2019

    • Author(s)
      Hasegawa J, Ikeda T, Toyokawa S, Jojima E, Satoh S, Ichizuka K, Tamiya N, Nakai A, Fujimori K, Maeda T, Takeda S, Suzuki H, Ueda S, Iwashita M, Ikenoue T:
    • Journal Title

      J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med

      Volume: 23 Issue: 5 Pages: 1-7

    • DOI

      10.1080/14767058.2019.1611775

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Sex‐specific analysis of renal cell carcinoma histology and survival in Japan: A population‐based study 2004 to 20162019

    • Author(s)
      Zaitsu Masayoshi、Toyokawa Satoshi、Takeuchi Takumi、Kobayashi Yasuki、Kawachi Ichiro
    • Journal Title

      Health Science Reports

      Volume: 3 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-8

    • DOI

      10.1002/hsr2.142

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A side effect of fall prevention for inpatient elderlies.2018

    • Author(s)
      84.Satoshi Toyokawa, Sachiko Iijima, Takehiro Sugiyama, Nobuo Nishi, Yutaka Takahashi
    • Organizer
      International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 入院高齢者の転倒対策数の増加とその効果-システムダイナミクスを用いたシミュレーション-2018

    • Author(s)
      85.豊川智之
    • Organizer
      日本民族衛生学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 医師の診療所地選択に関するABMシミュレーション -複雑系アプローチ-2017

    • Author(s)
      豊川智之
    • Organizer
      日本健康学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 現在進行中の研究プロジェクト

    • URL

      http://publichealth.m.u-tokyo.ac.jp/project.html

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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