| Project/Area Number |
17K13003
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Keywords | 人的被害 / 地震 / 津波 / 地震規模 / 建物被害 / 室内被害 / 閉じ込め / 減災対策 / 複合災害 / 人的被害推定 / 病床数 / 立地適正化計画 / 室内被害予測 / 建物被害予測 / 津波避難 / 搬送 / 2018北海道胆振東部地震 / 防災 / 時系列変化 / 減災戦略 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, a method for estimating human casualties during compound disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis was developed, while considering future changes within a city. The method was then applied to major cities in Hokkaido to estimate human casualties during such events. Although it was found that casualties caused by collapsing buildings were low, casualties caused by indoor damage were significant. Additionally, the effects of disaster prevention measures such as self-help, mutual assistance, and public assistance in mitigating human casualties were estimated. It was found that, in locations such as Kushiro City, casualty mitigation would be a challenge despite the implementation of disaster prevention measures in areas where tsunamis were expected, as residents reside in high-risk areas. Consequently, it may be necessary to consider their relocation to safer areas.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究は、津波の複合災害を対象とし、都市の将来変化を加味した人的被害手法を構築した。結果、これまで考慮できていなかった地震・津波に対し、自助・共助・公助による人的被害の減災対策の評価が可能となったことは、今後の防災政策を立案するうえで大いに役立つと考えられる。加えて、地域ごとの医療活動の対応限界を明らかにすべく、想定地震の地震規模を変えることで各地域における人的被害推定と防災施策の減災効果の検証を実施した。結果、地域によって対応限界が大きく異なることを明らかにした。どの程度の地震に対し各自治体は対応可能となるような施策を講じるのか、防災政策の立案において重要な資料となるであろう。
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