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Prediction for the heavy precipitation associated with the Baiu front over Kyushu

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K13009
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
Research InstitutionJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

Sugimoto Shiori  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(環境変動予測研究センター), 研究員 (90632076)

Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Keywords梅雨 / 大雨解析 / 領域大気モデル / 水蒸気輸送過程 / 豪雨 / 広域水蒸気輸送 / 力学ダウンスケーリング / 総観場解析 / 広域循環 / 数値実験 / 梅雨前線 / 自然災害 / 夏季東アジアモンスーン
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Synoptic-scale conditions to cause heavy rainfall events were analyzed over Kyushu during the Baiu season in 1981~2015. A cyclonic circulation is formed over the Tibetan Plateau at several days before the occurrence of heavy precipitation events, in association with the surface heating, and it extends to east and reaches Western Japan. This cyclonic circulation enhances moisture transport to Kyushu and causes heavy precipitation there.
The regional-scale ensemble simulation was conducted using the regional atmospheric model with 2km horizontal resolution to examine a prediction skill for heavy precipitation occurrence over Kyushu. Although the prediction for extremely heavy precipitation event is quite difficult, I suggests that the 2km horizontal resolution is insufficient to simulate the local-scale atmospheric conditions to occur continuous heavy precipitation.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

広域スケールの水蒸気輸送過程に関する研究成果から、大雨発生時における活発な水蒸気輸送の一要因である低気圧性循環場は、チベット高原上で大雨発生数日前に発生することが明らかとなった。このことから、チベット高原を含む広域の大気概況を監視することが、梅雨期における九州地方の大雨発生を予測精度を向上させる可能性がある。また、狭域スケールの豪雨再現実験により、豪雨の再現には水平解像度1㎞以下の数値実験が必要不可欠であることが示唆された。本研究では豪雨の予測可能性が見いだせなかったものの、コンピュータサイエンスのさらなる発展や大気モデルを構成する基礎研究の重要性を支持する結果であると考える。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Heavy Precipitation over Southwestern Japan during the Baiu Season due to Abundant Moisture Transport from Synoptic-Scale Atmospheric Conditions2020

    • Author(s)
      Sugimoto Shiori
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 16 Issue: 0 Pages: 17-22

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2020-004

    • NAID

      130007797800

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Modification of Near‐Surface Temperature Over East Asia Associated With Local‐Scale Paddy Irrigation2019

    • Author(s)
      Shiori Sugimoto, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, and Hirosato Sekiyama
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 124 Issue: 5 Pages: 2665-2676

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018jd029434

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Modification of near-surface temperature over East Asia associated with local-scale paddy irrigation2020

    • Author(s)
      Shiori Sugimoto, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Hirosato Sekiyama
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint meeting 2020 Virtual
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 高解像実験を用いたヒマラヤ域における夜間降水の発生メカニズム解析2020

    • Author(s)
      杉本志織、藤波初木、那須野智江、佐藤友徳、高橋洋、上野健一
    • Organizer
      第22回非静力学モデルに関するワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Advantages of the high-resolution simulation over the Asian mountain regions2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Sugimoto, H. Fujinami, T. Nasuno, H. G. Takahashi, T. Sato, and K. Ueno
    • Organizer
      International GEWEX/GASS/LS4P and TPEMIP Regional Modeling & Aerosol in Snow Workshop
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Simulated clouds and precipitation over and around the Himalayas using the cloud resolving model2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Sugimoto, H. Fujinami, T. Nasuno, H. G. Takahashi, T. Sato, and K. Ueno
    • Organizer
      AsiaPEX Kick-off Conference
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Challenges for high resolution simulation over the Himalayas2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Sugimoto, H. Fujinami, T. Nasuno, H. G. Takahashi, T. Sato, and K. Ueno
    • Organizer
      The International Conference on Regional Climate-CORDEX 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An Impact of Low Vortex Propagated from the West on Heavy Precipitation over the Northern Kyusyu Island, Japan During the Baiu Season2018

    • Author(s)
      Shiori Sugimoto
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society(AOGS)15th Annual meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 南アジアにおける降水特性の日変化の再現に対する陸面状態および空間解像度の影響2018

    • Author(s)
      杉本志織、高橋洋
    • Organizer
      Post-MAHASRIプランニング会議
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.jamstec.go.jp/souran/html/Shiori_Sugimoto_99d16-j.html

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] JAMSTEC研究者総覧

    • URL

      http://www.jamstec.go.jp/souran/html/Shiori_Sugimoto_99d16-j.html

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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