| Project/Area Number |
17K13010
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
NAKANO Masuo 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, シームレス環境予測研究分野, 技術研究員 (40713954)
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| Research Collaborator |
NASUNO Tomoe
YAMADA Yohei
KIKUCHI Kazuyoshi
YAMAGUCHI Munehiko
SAWADA Masahiro
VITART Frederic
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
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| Keywords | 台風 / 季節内変動 / BSISO / 数値予報 / S2S / 予測可能性 / 気象学 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
It was statistically analyzed what atmospheric phenomena lead to the typhoon formation in the north of 25 degree north. The result showed that many typhoons formed in the north of 25 degree north when the western north Pacific monsoon index was negative. Moreover, the number of typhoon formation in the north of 25 degree north depends on the phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. To investigate the feasibility of forecast of typhoon formation in the north of 25 degree north, the model performance in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation by ten of the S2S models was examined. The results showed the frequency of the intraseasonal oscillation decrease with forecast lead time and it is related to the decrease in amplitude of the intraseasonal oscillation.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
北緯25度以北において発生した台風は、日本へ接近する可能性が非常に高い。このため、発生を予測することは、日本へ影響が出るまでの時間を稼ぐ意味でも意義深い。本研究により、北西太平洋モンスーン指数や北半球夏季季節内変動といった、比較的ゆっくりと変動する大気現象との関連が明らかになった。このことからこれらの変動を予測できれば、台風発生のポテンシャルも十分に予測できる。一方で、これらの変動を現在のモデルは弱めに表現する傾向にあることが明らかになり、今後のモデルの改良への指針を与える知見が得られた。
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