Evaluating the Impact of Repeated Leadership Targeting on Militant Group Durability
| Project/Area Number |
17K13692
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
International relations
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| Research Institution | Hosei University (2018-2019)
Waseda University (2017) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | 国際安全保障 / テロリズム / 対テロ戦略 / 計量政治 / 計量分析 / 政治学 / 国際関係論 / 安全保障 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Two conclusions can be drawn from the analysis. First, even though a terrorist group usually replaces a remove leader by new one quickly, repeated removals of terrorist leaders clearly reduce its durability. The second important conclusion is that the effect is conditional on the organization context. To be specific, while an organization having an access to enough resources at the outset tends to be robust to external shock like targeted killing, an organization without resources and thus relying on social resources such as charisma of the leader are vulnerable to targeted killing.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
標的殺害とその効果については，あたかも全ての組織に効果がある，ない，と議論・検証される傾向にあった本課題について，攻撃自体が継続して行われる傾向にある点（一度きりではない），また，組織の構造によって異なる影響が存在する点を考慮した上で，その効果を科学的に検証することを通じて，これまで経験的・時宜的に行われてきた政策を体系的に把握することに繋がる。特に本研究が明らかにしたように，繰り返しの攻撃には一定の効果があるという結論は，対テロ政策の戦略立案段階から繰り返し攻撃を前提とした攻撃方策の策定が期待でき，また学術的裏付けから，政策の透明性を確保することにも繋がり，政治的・社会的インパクトが大きい。
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(6 results)
