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Mechanisms and projection of long-term variation in global monsoon

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K14388
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

KAMAE Youichi  筑波大学, 生命環境系, 助教 (80714162)

Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywordsモンスーン / 大気海洋相互作用 / 気候変化 / 古気候
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using model outputs of ocean temperature assimilation runs, the robust connection between ocean basins triggered by the Atlantic multidecadal variability was identified. I also found that the tiny perturbations in the seasonal-latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation through the Earth's orbital forcing can modulate the seasonal transition of the Asian monsoon.
Through this research project, it was identified that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean trans-basin interaction and the resultant atmospheric circulation pattern influences the natural disaster risk over Japan through the variation in activity of water vapor transport bands. In response to the global warming, the water vapor transport band plays an important role in the future increase in natural disaster risk over Japan.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

グローバルモンスーンの長期変動は、世界的な農業生産量など、人々の生活に対して極めて大きな影響力を持つ。20世紀後半以降のグローバルモンスーンの変動が、大西洋を発端としていた可能性を指摘し、その将来変化を予測する上で鍵となる物理機構を明らかにした。これらの成果は、グローバルモンスーンの地球システム学的役割を明らかにすることに貢献したとともに、大陸規模の水循環の変動を通した、世界的な社会経済活動の今後数年から数十年先の変動を予測する上で、重要な視座を提供することに貢献した。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (34 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (5 results) Journal Article (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Peer Reviewed: 13 results,  Open Access: 7 results) Presentation (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 8 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of California San Diego/University of North Carolina(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] カリフォルニア大学サンディエ ゴ校スクリプス海洋研究所/ノースカロライナ大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国科学院大気物理研究所(中国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校スクリプス海洋研究所/ノースカロライナ大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国科学院大気物理研究所(中国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Impacts of Seasonal Transitions of ENSO on Atmospheric River Activity over East Asia2020

    • Author(s)
      NAOI Moeka、KAMAE Youichi、UEDA Hiroaki、MEI Wei
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 98 Issue: 3 Pages: 655-668

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2020-027

    • NAID

      130007857972

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Eastern Pacific Wind Effect on the Evolution of El Nino: Implications for ENSO Diversity2020

    • Author(s)
      Peng Qihua、Xie Shang-Ping、Wang Dongxiao、Kamae Youichi、Zhang Hong、Hu Shineng、Zheng Xiao-Tong、Wang Weiqiang
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 33 Issue: 8 Pages: 3197-3212

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-19-0435.1

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers2019

    • Author(s)
      Kamae Youichi、Mei Wei、Xie Shang-Ping
    • Journal Title

      Environmental Research Letters

      Volume: 14 Issue: 5 Pages: 1-9

    • DOI

      10.1088/1748-9326/ab128a

    • NAID

      120007127917

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The effects of natural variability and climate change to the record low sunshine over Japan during August 20172019

    • Author(s)
      Takahashi, C., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, Y. Kosaka, M. Mori, M. Arai, Y. Kamae,M. Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

      Volume: 100 Issue: 1 Pages: S67-S71

    • DOI

      10.1175/bams-d-18-0107.1

    • NAID

      120007128057

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Seasonally variant low cloud adjustment over cool oceans2018

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., R. Chadwick, D. Ackerley, M. Ringer, and T. Ogura
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 52 Issue: 9-10 Pages: 5801-5817

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-018-4478-7

    • NAID

      120007127935

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity2018

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, H. Shiogama, A. M. DeAngelis, K. Suzuki
    • Journal Title

      Nature Climate Change

      Volume: 8 Issue: 10 Pages: 901-906

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41558-018-0272-0

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Seasonal Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Associated with Coherent Indo-Pacific Variability during Decaying Phase of El Niño2018

    • Author(s)
      UEDA Hiroaki, MIWA Kana, KAMAE Youichi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 96 Issue: 4 Pages: 381-390

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2018-044

    • NAID

      130007420241

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole and ENSO diversity2018

    • Author(s)
      Shang-Ping Xie, Qihua Peng, Youichi Kamae, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Hiroki Tokinaga, Dongxiao Wang
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: - Issue: 11 Pages: 4449-4462

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-17-0905.1

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Climate Change Increased the Likelihood of the 2016 Heat Extremes in Asia2018

    • Author(s)
      Imada Yukiko、Shiogama Hideo、Takahashi Chiharu、Watanabe Masahiro、Mori Masato、Kamae Youichi、Maeda Shuhei
    • Journal Title

      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

      Volume: 99 Issue: 1 Pages: S97-S101

    • DOI

      10.1175/bams-d-17-0109.1

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study2017

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., T. Kawana, M. Oshiro, and H. Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Prog. Earth Planet. Sci.

      Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-13

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-017-0136-7

    • NAID

      120007134771

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon2017

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., X. Li, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Clim. Dyn.

      Volume: 49 Issue: 9-10 Pages: 3443-3455

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-017-3522-3

    • NAID

      120007134719

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Atmospheric rivers over the Northwestern Pacific: Climatology and interannual variability2017

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., W. Mei, S.-P. Xie, M. Naoi, and H. Ueda
    • Journal Title

      J. Climate

      Volume: 30 Issue: 15 Pages: 5605-5619

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-16-0875.1

    • NAID

      120007128881

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Climatological Relationship between Warm Season Atmospheric Rivers and Heavy Rainfall over East Asia2017

    • Author(s)
      Kamae Youichi、Mei Wei、Xie Shang-Ping
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 95 Issue: 6 Pages: 411-431

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2017-027

    • NAID

      130006200968

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Sea surface temperature perturbations and atmospheric rivers over the western North Pacific2020

    • Author(s)
      Youichi Kamae, Wei Mei
    • Organizer
      2020 Ocean Sciences Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A cluster analysis of the tracks of North Atlantic wintertime atmospheric rivers and links to extreme precipitation and winds2020

    • Author(s)
      Chuxuan Li, Wei Mei, Youichi Kamae
    • Organizer
      2020 Ocean Sciences Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 東アジア域の大気の川通過頻度に対するENSOの季節進行の影響2019

    • Author(s)
      釜江陽一, 直井萌香, 植田宏昭
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合大会2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 複数の海面水温上昇分布を仮定したatmospheric river発生頻度の将来変化予測2018

    • Author(s)
      釜江陽一, W. Mei, S.-P. Xie
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Indian Ocean warming and East Asian atmospheric rivers in post El Nino summer2018

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., W. Mei, S.-P. Xie, M. Naoi, H. Ueda
    • Organizer
      AOGS 15th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Indian Ocean warming and East Asian atmospheric river activity in post El Nino summer2018

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y.
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Tropical Atlantic warming as a possible trigger for the recent decadal trend in global monsoon2018

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., X. Li, S.-P. Xie, H. Ueda
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 東アジアatmospheric riverに伴う豪雨の気候学的特徴2018

    • Author(s)
      釜江陽一, W. Mei, S.-P. Xie
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] PMIP3マルチモデルが示す中世温暖期におけるアジアモンスーン開始期の遅れ2017

    • Author(s)
      釜江陽一, 川名冬士, 大城萌美, 植田宏昭
    • Organizer
      JPGU-AGU joint meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Atlantic-induced trans-basin teleconnection as a driving factor for the recent enhancement of global monsoon2017

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., X. Li, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda
    • Organizer
      JPGU-AGU joint meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 大西洋を発端とした近年のグローバルモンスーン強化傾向2017

    • Author(s)
      釜江陽一, X. Li, S.-P. Xie, 植田宏昭
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋atmospheric rivers発生頻度の気候学的分布とその変動2017

    • Author(s)
      釜江陽一, W. Mei, S.-P. Xie, 直井萌香, 植田宏昭
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Preceding Winter's ENSO Control on Summertime Atmospheric River Activity over the North Pacific.2017

    • Author(s)
      Kamae, Y., W. Mei, S.-P. Xie, M. Naoi, and H. Ueda
    • Organizer
      2017 AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋Atmospheric Riversの発生に対するENSOの同時・時間差影響2017

    • Author(s)
      直井萌香, 釜江陽一, 植田宏昭
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Book] ニュース・天気予報がよくわかる気象キーワード事典2019

    • Author(s)
      筆保 弘徳、山崎 哲、中村 哲、安成 哲平、吉田 龍二、釜江 陽一、下瀬 健一、大橋 唯太、堀田 大介
    • Total Pages
      276
    • Publisher
      ベレ出版
    • ISBN
      9784860645915
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 改訂版 地球環境学2019

    • Author(s)
      松岡 憲知、田中 博、杉田 倫明、八反地 剛、松井 圭介、呉羽 正昭、加藤 弘亮
    • Total Pages
      122
    • Publisher
      古今書院
    • ISBN
      9784772253192
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2022-02-22  

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