Study on long-term variation of solar global environment associated with solar cycle activity

• Project/Area Number: 17K14401
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Space and upper atmospheric physics
• Research Institution: Nagoya University
• Principal Investigator: Imada Shinsuke 名古屋大学, 宇宙地球環境研究所, 講師 (40547965)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
• Keywords: 太陽 / 地球環境 / 長期変動 / 太陽風 / 太陽周期活動 / 太陽地球環境変動 / 太陽表面地場 / 太陽地球環境科学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Focusing on one solar cycle from 2010 to the present, the open magnetic field lines are detected by combination of the surface flux transport model and the magnetic field line tracking technique. The position of the corona hole and the solar wind sources are estimated and their temporal changes are discussed. Magnetic field lines were traced from the sun surface using the PFSS (Potential Field Source Surface) extrapolation method from the calculated magnetic field of the whole sun obtained by the surface flux transport model. Long-term fluctuations of the solar terrestrial environment were considered by applying a solar wind model by using the present global magnetic field data as initial values and probabilistically giving sunspots for the next 10 years to carry out a large amount of solar surface magnetic flux transport calculations.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

これまで宇宙天気研究は長いタイムスケールの現象の予測はそれほど行われて来なかった。そこで本研究では、今後10年間に出現する黒点を確率的に与え、大量の太陽表面磁束輸送計算をおこなうことで、今後10年の太陽表面磁場を確立的に求めた。さらに得られた太陽表面磁場に太陽風モデルを適応することで、今後10年の太陽風の長期変動を予測し、太陽地球環境の長期変動を考察した。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Thaddaeus Derfflinger’s Sunspot Observations during 1802-1824: A Primary Reference to Understand the Dalton Minimum (2020)
  • Author(s): Hayakawa Hisashi、Besser Bruno P.、Iju Tomoya、Arlt Rainer、Uneme Shoma、Imada Shinsuke、Bourdin Philippe-A.、Kraml Amand
  • Journal Title: The Astrophysical Journal Volume: 890 Issue: 2 Pages: 98-98
  • DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ab65c9
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] White-light Emission and Chromospheric Response by an X1.8-class Flare on 2012 October 23 (2020)
  • Author(s): Watanabe Kyoko、Imada Shinsuke
  • Journal Title: The Astrophysical Journal Volume: 891 Issue: 1 Pages: 88-88
  • DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ab711b
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Intrusion of Magnetic Peninsula Toward Neighboring Opposite Polarity Region that Triggers Largest Solar Flare in Solar Cycle 24 (2020)
  • Author(s): Yumi Bamba, Satoshi Inoue, Shinsuke Imada
  • Journal Title: The Astrophysical Journal Volume: 894 Issue: 1 Pages: 29-29
  • DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ab85ca
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Nowcast of an EUV dynamic spectrum during solar flares (2020)
  • Author(s): Kawai Toshiki、Imada Shinsuke、Nishimoto Shohei、Watanabe Kyoko、Kawate Tomoko
  • Journal Title: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Volume: 205 Pages: 105302-105302
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105302
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Revisiting Kunitomo’s Sunspot Drawings During 1835-1836 in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Fujiyama Masashi、Hayakawa Hisashi、Iju Tomoya、Kawai Toshiki、Toriumi Shin、Otsuji Kenichi、Kondo Katsuya、Watanabe Yusaku、Nozawa Satoshi、Imada Shinsuke
  • Journal Title: Solar Physics Volume: 294 Issue: 4 Pages: 1-23
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11207-019-1429-3
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Velocity Structure and Temperature Dependence of an Extreme-Ultraviolet Jet Observed by Hinode (2019)
  • Author(s): T. Kawai, N. Kanda, S. Imada
  • Journal Title: Solar Physics Volume: 294 Issue: 6 Pages: 74-74
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11207-019-1469-8
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Effect of Morphological Asymmetry between Leading and Following Sunspots on the Prediction of Solar Cycle Activity (2019)
  • Author(s): Iijima H.、Hotta H.、Imada S.
  • Journal Title: The Astrophysical Journal Volume: 883 Issue: 1 Pages: 24-24
  • DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ab3b04
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A Transit of Venus Possibly Misinterpreted as an Unaided-Eye Sunspot Observation in China on 9 December 1874 (2019)
  • Author(s): Hayakawa Hisashi、S?ma Mitsuru、Tanikawa Kiyotaka、Willis David M.、Wild Matthew N.、Macdonald Lee T.、Imada Shinsuke、Hattori Kentaro、Richard Stephenson F.
  • Journal Title: Solar Physics Volume: 294 Issue: 9 Pages: 119-119
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11207-019-1504-9
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Achievements of Hinode in the first eleven years (2019)
  • Author(s): Hinode Review Team、including Shimizu Toshifumi
  • Journal Title: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan Volume: 71 Issue: 5
  • DOI: 10.1093/pasj/psz084
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Semiconservative reduced speed of sound technique for low Mach number flows with large density variations (2019)
  • Author(s): Iijima H.、Hotta H.、Imada S.
  • Journal Title: Astronomy & Astrophysics Volume: 622 Pages: A157-A157
  • DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201834031
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Effect of Magnetic Field Strength on Solar Differential Rotation and Meridional Circulation (2018)
  • Author(s): Imada S.、Fujiyama M.
  • Journal Title: The Astrophysical Journal Volume: 864 Issue: 1 Pages: 15-15
  • DOI: 10.3847/2041-8213/aad904
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Electron Power-Law Spectra in Solar and Space Plasmas (2018)
  • Author(s): Oka M.、Birn J.、Battaglia M.、Chaston C. C.、Hatch S. M.、Livadiotis G.、Imada S.、Miyoshi Y.、Kuhar M.、Effenberger F.、Eriksson E.、Khotyaintsev Y. V.、Retin? A.
  • Journal Title: Space Science Reviews Volume: 214 Issue: 5 Pages: 82-82
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11214-018-0515-4
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Sunspot drawings by Japanese official astronomers in 1749?1750 (2018)
  • Author(s): Hayakawa Hisashi、Iwahashi Kiyomi、Fujiyama Masashi、Kawai Toshiki、Toriumi Shin、Hotta Hideyuki、Iijima Haruhisa、Imada Shinsuke、Tamazawa Harufumi、Shibata Kazunari
  • Journal Title: Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan Volume: 70 Issue: 4 Pages: 63-63
  • DOI: 10.1093/pasj/psy066
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Thermal Non-equilibrium Plasma Observed by Hinode (2018)
  • Author(s): Imada Shinsuke
  • Journal Title: First Ten Years of Hinode Solar On-Orbit Observatory Volume: - Pages: 221-229
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-7742-5_20
  • NAID: 40020942437
  • ISBN: 9789811077418, 9789811077425
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The Origin of the Solar Wind (2018)
  • Author(s): Lee Kyoung-Sun、Brooks David H.、Imada Shinsuke
  • Journal Title: First Ten Years of Hinode Solar On-Orbit Observatory Volume: - Pages: 95-102
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-7742-5_9
  • ISBN: 9789811077418, 9789811077425
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment (2017)
  • Author(s): Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.
  • Journal Title: Astronomy & Astrophysics Volume: 607 Pages: 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201731813
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Study on Precursor Activity of the X1.6 Flare in the Great AR 12192 with SDO, IRIS, and Hinode (2017)
  • Author(s): Bamba Yumi、Lee Kyoung-Sun、Imada Shinsuke、Kusano Kanya
  • Journal Title: The Astrophysical Journal Volume: 840 Issue: 2 Pages: 116-116
  • DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/aa6dfe
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 公募型小型 Solar-C_EUVST 計画 (2020)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮, Solar-CWG
  • Organizer: 第20回 宇宙科学シンポジウム
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 高感度EUV/UV分光望遠鏡衛星(Solar-C EUVST):全体進捗状況 (2020)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮, Solar-CWG
  • Organizer: 日本天文学会2020年春季年会
• [Presentation] 次期太陽観測衛星Solar-C_EUVSTを想定した電離非平衡プラズマ診断 (2019)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮, Solar-C_EUVST小型検討チーム
  • Organizer: 日本天文学会２０１９年春季年会 (東京、法政大学)
• [Presentation] Science Objectives of the Solar-C_EUVST (2019)
  • Author(s): 今田 晋亮, Solar-C_EUVST team
  • Organizer: 地球惑星科学連合大会２０１９ （千葉、幕張）
• [Presentation] The EUV High-Throughput Spectroscopic Telescope (2019)
  • Author(s): 今田 晋亮, Solar-C_EUVST team
  • Organizer: Eleventh Workshop "Solar Influences on the Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Atmosphere"
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Predicting solar cycle 25 using surface flux transport model (PSTEP) (2019)
  • Author(s): Imada, S, Iijima, H, Hotta, H, Kusano, K, Shiota D
  • Organizer: VarSITI Completion General Symposium
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Comparative Study of Energetic Particle Acceleration in Solar Corona and Earth’s Magnetosphere (2019)
  • Author(s): Shinsuke Imada
  • Organizer: AOGS 2019 (Singapore, Singapore)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Science Objectives of the Solar-C_EUVST (2019)
  • Author(s): S. Imada, Solar-C WG
  • Organizer: Hinode13 meeting (Tokyo, Japan)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Solar-C_EUVST「Outcome」 (2019)
  • Author(s): S. Imada, Solar-C WG
  • Organizer: 日本天文学会２０１９年秋季年会 (熊本, 熊本大学)
• [Presentation] 次世代太陽観測衛星Solar-C_EUVSTのサイエンスターゲット (2019)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮, 清水敏文, 川手朋子, International, Solar-C_EUVST WG
  • Organizer: 第36回 プラズマ・核融合学会 年会 (愛知・中部大学)
• [Presentation] 太陽物理学における予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮
  • Organizer: I-URICフロンティアコロキウム2019
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 次期太陽観測衛星Solar-C_EUVSTを想定した電離非平衡プラズマ診断 (2019)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮, Solar-C_EUVST小型検討チーム
  • Organizer: 日本天文学会２０１8年春季年会
• [Presentation] 太陽大気形成過程における観測・理論の現状と将来展望 (2018)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮、勝川行雄、鳥海森、政田洋平、仲田資季
  • Organizer: 第３５回プラズマ・核融合学会 年会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 高感度 EUV/UV 分光望遠鏡衛星 (Solar-C EUVST):サイエンスターゲット及び観測要求性能 (2018)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮, Solar-C_EUVST小型検討チーム
  • Organizer: 日本天文学会２０１８年秋季年会
• [Presentation] Thermal Non-equilibrium Plasma Observed by Hinode (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinsuke Imada
  • Organizer: Hinode 12
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Thermal Non-equilibrium Plasma Observed by Hinode (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinsuke Imada
  • Organizer: AOGS 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Science Objectives of Solar-C_EUVST (2018)
  • Author(s): Shinsuke Imada
  • Organizer: 地球惑星科学連合大会２０１8
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Cosmic Ray Modulation and Radiation Dose of Aircrews During Possible Grand Minimum (2018)
  • Author(s): Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.; Imada, S.; Miyahara, H.; Shiota, D.; Matsumoto, T.; Ueno, H.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2017, abstract #SH53A-2556
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Non-thermal Power-Law Distributions in Solar and Space Plasmas (2018)
  • Author(s): Oka, M.; Battaglia, M.; Birn, J.; Chaston, C. C.; Effenberger, F.; Eriksson, E.; Fletcher, L.; Hatch, S.; Imada, S.; Khotyaintsev, Y. V.; Kuhar, M.; Livadiotis, G.; Miyoshi, Y.; Retino, A.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2017, abstract #SH51C-2518
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solar Surface Velocity in the Large Scale estimated by Magnetic Element Tracking Method (2018)
  • Author(s): Fujiyama, M.; Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Machida, S.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2017, abstract #SH13A-2474
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Statistical and observational research of solar flare for total spectra and geometrical features (2018)
  • Author(s): Nishimoto, S.; Watanabe, K.; Imada, S.; Kawate, T.; Lee, K. S.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2017, abstract #SH41A-2749
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solar-C_EUVSTにおける熱的非平衡プラズマの診断能力及びその診断能力から期待される科学成果 (2018)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮
  • Organizer: 天文学会 ２０１８年春季年会
• [Presentation] Predicting Solar Cycle 25 using Surface Flux Transport Model (2017)
  • Author(s): Imada, Shinsuke; Iijima, Haruhisa; Hotta, Hideyuki; Shiota, Daiko; Kusano, Kanya
  • Organizer: American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #48, id.111.06
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Multi-Wavelength Spectroscopic Observations of a White Light Flare Produced Directly by Non-thermal Electrons (2017)
  • Author(s): Lee, Kyoung-Sun; Imada, Shinsuke; Watanabe, Kyoko; Bamba, Yumi; Brooks, David
  • Organizer: American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #48, id.108.06
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Detection of Heating Processes in Coronal Loops by Soft X-ray Spectroscopy (2017)
  • Author(s): Kawate, Tomoko; Narukage, Noriyuki; Ishikawa, Shin-nosuke; Imada, Shinsuke
  • Organizer: American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #48, id.106.15
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 高感度紫外線撮像分光装置 EUVST が目指すサイエンス検討 (2017)
  • Author(s): 今田晋亮、 川手朋子、清水敏文、Carlos Noda、 原弘久、渡邊鉄哉、勝川行雄、末松芳法、 渡邊恭子、阿南徹、永田伸一
  • Organizer: 天文学会 ２０１７年秋季年会