Development of Dynamic traffic control simulator in a social network under emergency circumstances

• Project/Area Number: 17K14739
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo (2018-2019); Kobe University (2017)
• Principal Investigator: Urata Junji 東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 助教 (70771286)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
• Keywords: 避難計画 / 離散選択 / 動的計画法 / 社会ネットワーク / 避難行動 / 相互作用 / シミュレーション / 避難交通 / 目的地選択 / 最適制御 / リスク認知 / 交通工学・国土計画 / 交通需要マネージメント / 都市計画・建築計画 / 減災

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research examined the effect of social interaction on a discrete choice during a network formation process under a disaster situation. I proposed an analytical framework for the simultaneous evaluation of social interaction and social network formation. And, our proposed model could incorporate dynamic heterogeneity into the expected utility of dynamic sequential choices with a novel structural estimation approach. The incorporating of dynamic heterogeneity into expected utility enables illustrative modeling of more types of decision-making, because decision-making of evcacuees often involves inexact and time-inconsistent expected utilities.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

周辺他者による影響とその伝播過程を評価するモデルフレームを構築したことで，既存モデルでは評価できなかった率先避難等の施策を評価可能とした．災害は稀少現象であり，生じる災害規模は予測しがたい．そこ，他者の避難行動を参考にして，自分の行動選択の参考とすることが多く，こうした行動を再現・予測できる．また，時々刻々と変化する災害の状況を反映した動的な制御を可能とするため，将来を考慮した災害時行動を再現できるオリジナルなモデル構築を行った．

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] ミシガン大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ミシガン大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Delft University of Technology(オランダ)
• [Journal Article] People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning (2017)
  • Author(s): Urata Junji、Pel Adam J.
  • Journal Title: Risk Analysis Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 5 Pages: 889-905
  • DOI: 10.1111/risa.12931
  • NAID: 120006473621
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Incorporating a Dynamical Heterogeneity into Expected Utility of Dynamic Discrete Choice Model - With a Case Study of Tsunami Evacuation (2018)
  • Author(s): Urata, J., Hato, E.
  • Organizer: 15th International Conference on Travel Behavior Research
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Identification of Local Interaction and Asymmetric Impact: Application to Evacuation Departure Behavior (2018)
  • Author(s): Urata, J., Hato, E.
  • Organizer: 15th International Conference on Travel Behavior Research
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Incorporating a Dynamical Heterogeneity into Expected Utility of Dynamic Discrete Choice Model - With a Case Study of Tsunami Evacuation (2018)
  • Author(s): Junji Urata and Eiji Hato
  • Organizer: 15TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR RESEARCH
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] dentification of Local Interaction and Asymmetric Impact: Application to Evacuation Departure Behavior (2018)
  • Author(s): Junji Urata and Eiji Hato
  • Organizer: 15TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR RESEARCH
  • Int'l Joint Research