• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Development of estimation method of systematic uncertainty in particle transport code using bootstrap method

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K14917
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Nuclear engineering
Research InstitutionJapan Atomic Energy Agency

Principal Investigator

Hashimoto Shintaro  国立研究開発法人日本原子力研究開発機構, 原子力科学研究部門 原子力科学研究所 原子力基礎工学研究センター, 研究副主幹 (60465995)

Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Keywords粒子輸送計算 / ブートストラップ法 / 系統的不確かさ(系統誤差) / モンテカルロ法 / 核反応モデル / シミュレーション工学 / 放射線
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed a function to estimate systematic uncertainties in calculated results obtained by Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes, which have been successfully applied to shielding calculations in radiation facilities. Then, we discussed validity of an estimation using bootstrap method. ANOVA (analysis of variance) can estimate both systematic and statistical uncertainties. A new total cross section model was developed to estimate effects of uncertainty of the nuclear reaction model on the results of transport simulation. Several estimation techniques using the bootstrap method were discussed to estimate reliability of the systematic uncertainty obtained by ANOVA in the cases of normal and non-normal distributions.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本課題により、放射線挙動解析コードによる計算結果の信頼性を真の意味で定量的に与えることができるようになった。加速器を初めとする放射線を扱う施設の遮へい設計や運用条件を議論するための有力なツールとして大きく利便性を向上させることになり、過剰な安全裕度の設定や別途信頼性の検証実験等を行う必要がなくなることから、非常に大きなコストカットが可能となる。本成果を原子力機構が開発している粒子輸送計算コードPHITS に組み込むことで、希望者が自由に利用できる計算コードとして公開され、直接的に社会や国民に資することが期待される。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2019 2018

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Estimation method of systematic uncertainties in Monte Carlo particle transport simulation based on analysis of variance2019

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto Shintaro、Sato Tatsuhiko
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology

      Volume: 56 Issue: 4 Pages: 345-354

    • DOI

      10.1080/00223131.2019.1585989

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Total cross section model with uncertainty evaluated by KALMAN2019

    • Author(s)
      Shintaro Hashimoto, Tatsuhiko Sato
    • Organizer
      2019 International Conference on Nuclear Data for Science and Technology (ND2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ブートストラップ法を利用した PHITS における系統的不確かさの評価2019

    • Author(s)
      橋本慎太郎、佐藤達彦
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会 2019 年秋の大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] New analytical method to estimate systematic uncertainty in PHITS2018

    • Author(s)
      Shintaro Hashimoto, Tatsuhiko Sato
    • Organizer
      14th Specialists’ workshop on Shielding aspects of Accelerators, Targets, and Irradiation Facilities (SATIF-14)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] PHITSにおける系統的不確かさ評価機能の開発2018

    • Author(s)
      橋本慎太郎
    • Organizer
      放射線遮蔽設計法及び廃止措置における放射線安全に係るワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 分散分析を用いたPHITSにおける系統誤差の評価法2018

    • Author(s)
      橋本慎太郎、佐藤達彦
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2018年春の年会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2021-02-19  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi