Transport demand forecast fully consistent with microeconomics and its application to cost-benefit analysis
| Project/Area Number |
17K18560
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Economics, Business Administration, and related fields
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-06-30 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Keywords | 兼業 / 交通需要 / 収支均衡 / 独立採算 / 混雑料金 / 空港 / 規制 / 混雑 / 費用便益分析 / 離散選択モデル / 需要予測 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Current transport demand forecast system focuses only on naive transport demand. In reality, airports and train stations have large shopping areas, which will generate transport demand. Thus, shopping areas and transport demand are interdependent. For example, large shopping areas are constructed in a station with large transport demand. Transport demand is then enlarged by the transport demand to shopping areas. We need a consistent treatment of side business in analyzing transport demand in a fully consistent manner with microeconomics. In this study, I developed a transport demand model in which side business is explicitly taken into account, focusing on the demand for air trips. Using the model, I derived required conditions for self-financing, which are indispensable in actual policy making.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の学術的意義は、これまでほとんど研究されてこなかった、兼業を明示的に考慮した交通需要予測モデルの基礎を提供したことである。本研究を発展させた場合の社会的意義は非常に大きい。例えば、大型商業施設の存在を明示的に考慮することにより、周辺の道路の建設をどのようにすべきかを分析することができる。また、本研究で得た、独立採算の条件も、社会的意義は大きい。例えば、どの程度独立採算が可能かによって、道路への課金水準を明らかにすることができる。また、大型商業施設の存在により道路の整備が必要な場合に、大型商業施設が道路整備費を負担すべきか、負担する場合はどれくらいが適当かを計算することにもつながる。
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(2 results)
