| Project/Area Number |
17KK0045
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| Research Category |
Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Politics
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| Research Institution | Hitotsubashi University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018 – 2023
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥14,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,390,000)
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| Keywords | 内戦 / 議会 / 暴力 / 紛争 / テキスト分析 / 計量分析 / 国内紛争 / 対反乱政策 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
What effects do legislatures in semi-democracies have on political violence in the country? In this research, we examined the effects of legislators' speeches on the likelihoods of battles and violence against civilians using quantitative analyses. We selected Philippines and Colombia as cases, conducted automated content analysis to classify their speeches in plenary sessions, and conducted quantitative analyses to assess their impacts. The results of the analyses suggest that legislators' speeches on a peace process increase the chance of battle between the government and a extremist rebel group and that legislators' speeches on rebel violence against civilians reduce the risk of such violence in future. We also conducted a survey experiment in the Philippines, which showed that citizens expect their legislators to take certain actions in response to an incident of violence in their electoral districts.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
研究結果は、大きく２つの意義を持つ。学術的には、従来、国内紛争の研究においては議会の強さが紛争の長さに影響を与えることが示されてきた。それに対してこの研究では、議会、特にその中での議員発言が紛争中の暴力のレベルに影響を与えることを示した。更に、議員発言の背後には有権者の議員に対する期待と議員の再選動機がある可能性が示された。但し、その効果が生じる条件については更に精査する必要がある。政策的には、国内紛争下の暴力を抑制するために国際社会や国内の市民団体などが議員に働きかけることの有用性や、和平協議を進めることの副作用にも留意すべきことが示された。
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