| Project/Area Number |
17KT0066
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 特設分野 |
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| Research Field |
Agricultural Resources for the Next Generation
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
山田 朋人 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 准教授 (10554959)
成田 大樹 東京大学, 大学院総合文化研究科, 准教授 (50746485)
増冨 祐司 茨城大学, 農学部, 准教授 (90442699)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-07-18 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥18,590,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,290,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥8,320,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,920,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥6,760,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,560,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
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| Keywords | 大気汚染 / 森林火災 / 気候モデル / PM2.5 / 気候変動 / 農作物 / 経済分析 / 水循環 / シベリア / 陸面モデル / 温暖化実験 / 機械学習 / 灌漑 / 経済評価 / 環境経済 / 地球変動予測 / 自然災害 / 水資源 / 大気現象 / 経済政策 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We carried out researches on “hazards”, “food resources”, “water resources”, and “air pollutions”, using climate models, satellite data, and reanalysis data together with some economic analyses, which are relevant to human sustainability in the future,. In terms of “air pollutions”, we found the climate and environmental factors related to large-scale wildfire occurrences, and further performed machine learning for its prediction as a preliminary research. The global simulations under the increased Siberian wildfire conditions by a climate model, MIROC/SPRINTARS, revealed that the number of days exceeding the environmental standard of PM2.5 in Japan, increased premature mortality, and its economic impact. The updated crop growth model, MATCRO, was incorporated to the latest MIROC. Another climate model simulation also revealed that the frequency of unprecedented occurrences on the observed precipitation was well explained with the temperature trend of 0.5 K per 100 years.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
地球温暖化が進む中，人類の持続可能性に直結する「災害」，「食（農）資源」，「水資源」，「大気汚染」の変化が今後懸念される．本研究では，農作物4種を改良版MATCROとして最新版気候モデルMIROCに組み込み，今後の食資源と温暖化の関係の研究への貢献が期待される．さらに，シベリア森林火災が増加した場合に，大気汚染（PM2.5）がどの程度風下域へ運ばれ，人の健康と経済の観点から影響を与えうるかについて重要な知見を得た．また，温暖化時のこの森林火災増加の経済的影響まで評価ができた．これらは，初期的知見とは言え，将来の適応策を検討する際の重要な基礎データとなり，その社会的意義は大変大きいと考えられる．
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