War and Forcible Regime Change: Theory and Empirics

• Project/Area Number: 17KT0092
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 特設分野
• Research Field: Conflict Studies
• Research Institution: Tokyo Metropolitan University (2019); Waseda University (2017-2018)
• Principal Investigator: Ohtsuki Kazuto 首都大学東京, 大学教育センター, 准教授 (00779093)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-07-18 – 2020-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 戦後社会 / 戦後復興 / 民主化 / 核抑止 / 空爆 / 紛争資源 / 核抑止理論 / 戦争 / 戦後処理 / 復興 / 数理政治学 / 計量政治学 / 兵器選択 / 民主的平和論 / 数理分析 / 政治学 / 国際関係論 / 比較政治

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project analyzes why and how wars are fought by looking at the types of political and economic resources conflict zones possess. Its main contributions are summarized in the following three research papers. The first paper offers a formal theory that explains why powerful international actors promote democracy in some instances and dictators in other instances. An empirical analysis using an original data set supports the theory's empirical implications. The second paper explores the political-economic determinants of military strategy during war to explain the intensity of suffering that certain conflict zones and their inhabitants suffer due to aerial bombing and landmines. The third paper demonstrates that political institutions and goods at stake have considerable effects on the functioning of nuclear deterrence, refining the logic of nuclear deterrence theory.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

国内秩序と国家間関係の安定が民主化と国家建設を通じて達成される条件とメカニズムを解明し、戦後の平和構築の可能性、さらには日本の対外援助を通じた民主化と国家建設における貢献の可能性を示した。また、経済資源が爆撃や地雷埋設などの戦争被害の形を決定するメカニズムに科学的な説明を与えることで、戦地における人々の苦しみを低減するための政策的示唆を与えた。最後に、北朝鮮やパキスタンに代表されるアジアの非民主的な核新興国がもたらす安全保障上の脅威が叫ばれる中、本研究はそれらの国が核抑止に与える影響について科学的な知見をもたらした。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Bombing and Mining in War: Evidence from Cambodia (2019)
  • Author(s): OHTSUKI, Kazuto, Shoko Kohama, and Yasutaka Tominaga
  • Journal Title: Journal of Global Security Studies Volume: 5(2) Pages: 319-338
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Bombing and Mining in War: Evidence from Cambodia (2019)
  • Author(s): Kazuto Ohtsuki, Shoko Kohama, and Yasutaka Tominaga
  • Journal Title: Journal of Global Security Studies Volume: 印刷中
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Forcible Regime Change and War (2017)
  • Author(s): Kazuto OHTSUKI
  • Organizer: Research Colloquium in Conflict Studies
  • Int'l Joint Research