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Explorations on the "ratio bias" paradox in decision making

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18330154
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Experimental psychology
Research InstitutionTokyo Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

YAMAGISHI Kimihiko  Tokyo Institute of Technology, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 准教授 (70286136)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) MUTA Hiromitsu  東京工業大学, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 教授 (70090925)
NAKAGAWA Masanori  東京工業大学, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 教授 (40155685)
MAYEKAWA Shin'ichi  東京工業大学, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 教授 (70190288)
Project Period (FY) 2006 – 2009
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2009)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,610,000 (Direct Cost: ¥15,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,310,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥7,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,600,000)
Keywords割合錯誤 / 比率バイアス / 確率判断 / 意思決定 / 選好
Research Abstract

"The ratio bias" denotes a systematic logical anomaly in human psychology. One exhibits a ratio bias whenever her magnitude judgments pertaining to percentages show inconsistencies with logically equivalent judgments pertaining to fractions by combined integers. Yamagishi (1997)'s experimental participants rated risk of cancer as more dangerous when instructed that cancer kills "1286 people out of 10000" than when told "24.14 out of 100." This research program aimed at establishing theoretical framework to explain such phenomena, as well as providing applied prescription for risk communication. The theory, "dual Weber-Fechner Theory," appeared in journal the article 4 in the subsequent list. Papers discussing communication research in extension of the article 4 include papers 1, 3, and 4. They also inherit insights in verbal communications set forth by articles 6, 7, and 8. Finally, the article 2 offers applied work in the setting of risk communication between cancer patients and medical practitioners. Thusly this investigation accomplished the objectives in the research proposal stage.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2009 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2008 Annual Research Report   Self-evaluation Report ( PDF )
  • 2007 Annual Research Report
  • 2006 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (53 results)

All 2009 2008 2007 2006

All Journal Article (22 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 13 results) Presentation (29 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Perceived certainty based on verbal probability phrases: Effect of directionality and its dependence on method.2009

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Psychological Research 51

      Pages: 266-273

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 血液がん患者の示す治療リスク認知の楽観性に関するステージ差.2009

    • Author(s)
      平原憲道・山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      医療の質・安全学会誌 4

      Pages: 25-31

    • NAID

      40017003924

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] フレームは情報を"leak"するのか?-フレーム間の使用頻度の差異が参照点推論に与える影響-.2009

    • Author(s)
      本田秀仁・山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      認知科学 16

      Pages: 241-250

    • NAID

      10024935865

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] How strong is the comparison-to-the-strongest heuristic? An empirical test of the comparison-to-the-strongest heuristic in probability judgment.2009

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Psychological Research 51

      Pages: 96-102

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] How strong is the comparison-to-the-strongest heuristic? An empirical test of the comparison-to-the-strongest heuristic in probability judgment.2009

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦・中村國則
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Psychological Research 51

      Pages: 96-102

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 血液がん患者の示す治療リスク認知の楽観性に関するステージ差.2009

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦・平原憲道
    • Journal Title

      医療の質・安全学会誌 4

      Pages: 25-31

    • NAID

      40017003924

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Perceived certainty based on verbal probability phraese : Effect of directionality and its dependence on method.2009

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦・本田秀仁
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Psychological Research 51

      Pages: 266-273

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Perceived certainty based on verbal probability phrases2009

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Psychological Research (in press)

    • Related Report
      2008 Self-evaluation Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] How strong is the comparison-to-the-strongest heuristic?2009

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Psychological Research 51

      Pages: 96-102

    • Related Report
      2008 Self-evaluation Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] フレームは情報を“leak"するのか? -フレーム間の使用頻度の差異が参照点推論に与える影響-2009

    • Author(s)
      本田秀仁, 山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      認知科学 (印刷中)

    • NAID

      10024935865

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Perceived certainty based on verbal probability phrases : Effect of directionality and its dependence on method2009

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Psychological Research (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 「割合錯誤」現象の精神物理学的モデルの提案.2007

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      国際経営・文化研究 12

      Pages: 99-107

    • NAID

      120006406102

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 「割合錯誤」現象の精神物理学的モデルの提案2007

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      国際経営・文化研究 12

      Pages: 99-107

    • NAID

      120006406102

    • Related Report
      2008 Self-evaluation Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 「割合錯誤」現象の精神物理学的モデルの提案2007

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      国際経営・文化研究, 12

      Pages: 99-107

    • NAID

      120006406102

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 不確定な確率情報に見る言語確率の方向性の性質.2006

    • Author(s)
      本田秀仁・山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      認知科学 13

      Pages: 139-141

    • NAID

      10018137392

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Directional verbal probabilities: Inconsistencies between preferential judgments and numerical meanings.2006

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Journal Title

      Experimental Psychology 53

      Pages: 161-170

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 言語確率の曖昧性と方向性-確率情報の性質と意思決定に与える影響-2006

    • Author(s)
      本田秀仁, 山岸侯彦
    • Journal Title

      心理学研究 76

      Pages: 519-526

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Directional verbal probabilities : Inconsistencies between preferential judgments and numerical meanings.2006

    • Author(s)
      Hidehio Honda, Kimihiko Yamagishi
    • Journal Title

      Expermental Psychology 53

      Pages: 161-170

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Which is more probable--25%+25%or40%+10%? : Effect of the distribution of focal outcomes on gut-level perception of certainty2006

    • Author(s)
      Kuninori Nakamura, Kimihiko Yamagishi
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (CD-Rom)

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Superficially irrational,subconsciously reasonable : Measuring presumptions decision makers are unaware of2006

    • Author(s)
      Kimihiko Yamagishi, Yu Nishimura
    • Journal Title

      Program book of the 47th Annual Meeting of The Psychonomic Society 47

      Pages: 12-12

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The altermative-outcomes effect and Bayesian belief updating2006

    • Author(s)
      Kuninori Nakamura, Kimihiko Yamagishi
    • Journal Title

      Program book of the 47th Annual Meeting of The Psychonomic Society 47

      Pages: 102-102

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 言語確立の曖昧性と方向性-確立情報の性質と意思決定に与える影響-2006

    • Author(s)
      本田 秀仁, 山岸 侯彦
    • Journal Title

      心理学研究 76

      Pages: 519-526

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] An Item Response Theory analysis of the four-card selection task.2009

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 50th Annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Boston, MA.
    • Year and Date
      2009-11-21
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] An Item Response Theory analysis of the four-card selection task.2009

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦・中村國則
    • Organizer
      The 50th Annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society.
    • Place of Presentation
      Boston, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2009-11-21
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 視線情報に基づく共同問題解決におけるさ比喩の効果の実験的検討2009

    • Author(s)
      寺井あすか・栗山直子・安原正晁・徳永健伸・山岸侯彦・楠見孝
    • Organizer
      日本心理学会第73回大会
    • Place of Presentation
      立命館大学
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-27
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Contrasting competing theories on the ratio bias phenomenon2009

    • Author(s)
      Yamagishi, K., Kouno, Y
    • Organizer
      Paper presented at The 22nd Bi-annual Conference on Subjective Probability
    • Place of Presentation
      Utility and Decision Making, Rovereto, Italy.
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-26
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Contrasting competing theories on the ratio bias phenomenon.2009

    • Author(s)
      山岸侯彦・河野陽子
    • Organizer
      The 22nd Bi-annual Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Trento, Italy
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-26
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Zero-risk tolerance and "risk acceptance" of four different medical activities: Delivery vs. treatment.2008

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, N., Yamagishi, K., Wada, C.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 29th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making.
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, IL.
    • Year and Date
      2008-11-16
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Recognition heuristic and knowledge based inference: Unified explanation with the familiarity for objects.2008

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H. Yamagishi, K., Abe, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 29th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making.
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, IL.
    • Year and Date
      2008-11-16
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Zero-risk tolerance and "risk acceptance" of four different medical activities : Delivery vs. treatment2008

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, N., Yamagishi, K., Wada, C.
    • Organizer
      The 29th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2008-11-16
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Recognition heuristic and knowledge based inference : Unified explanation with the familiarity for objects2008

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K., Abe, K.
    • Organizer
      The 29th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2008-11-16
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Information theoretic analysis of probability statements.2008

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., & Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 49th Annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, IL.
    • Year and Date
      2008-11-14
    • Related Report
      2008 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Presentation] Information theoretic analysis of probability statements.2008

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Ymagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      The 49th Annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2008-11-14
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Probability communication with verbal expressions: The role of directionality.2008

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Paper presented at the XXIX International Congress of Psychology
    • Place of Presentation
      Berlin, Germany.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Information theoretic analysis of probability statements.2008

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 49th Annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society.
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, IL.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A change in medical risk perception over treatment stages of blood cancer patients.2007

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, N., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 28th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making.
    • Place of Presentation
      Long Beach, CA.
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-18
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Is a rational person fair? : the ultimatum game and the selection tasks.2007

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 28th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Long Beach, CA.
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-18
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A change in medical risk perception over treatment stages of blood cancer patients2007

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, N., & Yamagishi, K
    • Organizer
      The 28th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Long Beach, CA.
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-18
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Is a rational person fair? : the ultimatum game and the selection tasks2007

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., & Yamagishi, K
    • Organizer
      The 28th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Long Beach, CA.
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-18
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A multidimensional scaling approach to verbal probability expression.2007

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 48th Annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society.
    • Place of Presentation
      Long Beach, CA.
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-17
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A multidimensional scaling approach to verbal probability expression.2007

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., & Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      The 48th Annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Long Beach, CA.
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-17
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A change in medical risk perception over treatment stages of blood cancer patients2007

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, N., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 28th Annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Long Beach, CA.
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-16
    • Related Report
      2008 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Presentation] The directionality of verbal probability phrases: What communicative function does it perform?.2007

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at The 21st Bi-annual Conference on Subjective Probability
    • Place of Presentation
      Utility and Decision Making, Warsaw, Poland.
    • Year and Date
      2007-08-22
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] The directionality of verbal probability phrases: What communicative function does it perform?2007

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K
    • Organizer
      The 21st Bi-annual Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Warsaw, Poland
    • Year and Date
      2007-08-22
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Implicit Information in Directionality of Verbal Probability Expressions.2006

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Vancouver, Canada.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Cognitive processes of decisions based on verbal probability expressions-An analysis from decision reason-.2006

    • Author(s)
      Honda, H., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 27th Annual Meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Houston.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Bayesian View of the Alternative-Outcomes Effect.2006

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Paper presented at the 5th International Conference of the Cognitive Science
    • Place of Presentation
      Vancouver, Canada.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Which Is More Probable-25% + 25% or 40% + 10%? : Effect of the Distribution of Focal Outcomes on Gut-level Perception of Certainty.2006

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Paper presented at the 28th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Vancouver, Canada.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] The alternative-outcomes effect and Bayesian belief updating.2006

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, K., Yamagishi, K.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 47th Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Houston.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Reaction-Time Assessment of Beliefs Underlying the Irrational "Ratio-Bias" in Choice2006

    • Author(s)
      Yamagishi, K., Nishimura, Y.
    • Organizer
      Poster presented at the 28th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Vancouver, Canada.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Superficially irrational, subconsciously reasonable: Measuring presumptions decision makers are unaware of.2006

    • Author(s)
      Yamagishi, K., Nishimura, Y.
    • Organizer
      Paper presented at the 47th Annual Meeting of The Psychonomic Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Houston.
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 数理心理学2007

    • Author(s)
      吉野諒三・千野直仁・山岸侯彦
    • Total Pages
      282
    • Publisher
      培風館
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report 2008 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Book] 数理心理学 心理表現の論理と実際2007

    • Author(s)
      吉野諒三・千野直仁・山岸侯彦
    • Total Pages
      282
    • Publisher
      培風館
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2006-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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