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Mathematical modeling to protect emerging Flu

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18540138
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field General mathematics (including Probability theory/Statistical mathematics)
Research InstitutionJosai University

Principal Investigator

YASUDA Hidenori  Josai University, Department of Mathematics, Professor (30406368)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) SUZUKI Kazuo  Chiba University, Department of Medicine, Professor (20192130)
YAMAMOTO Kenji  International Medical Center Japan, Research institute, International Clinical Research Center, Director General (80192798)
尾又 一実  国立国際医療センター研究所, 室長 (50317301)
竹内 史比古  順天堂大学, 医学研究科, 講師 (50384152)
Project Period (FY) 2006 – 2007
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,480,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
KeywordsTransmission of disease / Simulation / Influenza / School closure / Prohibition of traffic / Vaccination / Commuters / 学級閉鎖 / 通勤
Research Abstract

In Greater Tokyo, many people commute by railroad between suburbs and downtowns for 1 or 2 h per day. The spread of influenza in the suburbs of Tokyo should be studied including the roll of commuters. We analyzed the spread of simulated influenza in commuter towns along a suburban railroad, using the individual-based Monte Carlo method and validated using the surveillance. This simulation reflected the mechanism of the real spread of influenza in the commuter towns. Three measures against the spread of influenza, prohibition of traffic, school closure, and vaccination of children were analyzed. Prohibition of traffic was not effective after the introduction of influenza into the commuter towns, but early implementation has some effect of delay of the epidemics. School closure delayed the epidemics, but its decrease in the infected population was small. Vaccination of children decreased the numbers not only of infected children but also of infected adults in the regional communities.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2007 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2006 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (12 results)

All 2007 2006 Other

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results) Presentation (3 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] 東京近郊のインフルエンザ流行伝播シミュレーション2007

    • Author(s)
      安田 英典, 鈴木 和男
    • Journal Title

      数理解析研究所講究録 1551

      Pages: 53-56

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report 2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Effectiveness of realistic vaccination strategies for contact networks of various degree distributions2006

    • Author(s)
      F.Takeuchi, K.Yamamoto
    • Journal Title

      Journal of theoretical biology 243

      Pages: 39-47

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effectiveness of realistic vaccination strategies for contact networks of various degree distribution2006

    • Author(s)
      F., Takeuchi, K., Yamamoto
    • Journal Title

      Journal of theoretical biology 243

      Pages: 39-47

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Effectiveness of realistic vaccination strategies for contact networks of various degree distributions2006

    • Author(s)
      Fumihiko Takeuchi, Kenji Yamamoto
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Theoretical Biology 243

      Pages: 39-47

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Preparedness for the spread of influenza:Prohibition of traffic, school closure,and vaccination of children in the commuter towns of Tokyo

    • Author(s)
      H.Yasuda, et. al.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of urban health (in press)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Preparedness for the spread of influenza : Prohibition of traffic, school closure and vaccination of children in the commuter towns of Tokyo

    • Author(s)
      H., Yasuda, et. al.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of urban health (in press)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Preparedness for the spread of influenza:Prohibition of traffic, school closure, and vaccination of children in the commuter towns of Tokyo

    • Author(s)
      Yasuda, H., et. al.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of urban health(accepted on 5/Feb/2008) (in press)

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Pattern formations of the two-phase shallow water equations2007

    • Author(s)
      H.Yasuda
    • Organizer
      The 3rd EAST ASIA SIAM Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Xiamen University,Xiamen,China
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-03
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Pattern formations of the two-phase shallow water equations2007

    • Author(s)
      H. Yasuda
    • Organizer
      The 3^<rd> EAST ASIA SIAM Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Xiamen University,Xiamen,China
    • Year and Date
      2007-11-03
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 感染症シミュレーション:隔離の空間的なパターン2007

    • Author(s)
      松本 昌昭, 義澤 宣明, 安田 英典
    • Organizer
      応用数理学会年会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学,札幌
    • Year and Date
      2007-09-15
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report 2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 生体防御学事典 IV17 感染症のシミュレーション2007

    • Author(s)
      安田 英典, 鈴木 和男
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 生体防御医学事典 IV17 感染症伝播のシミュレーション2007

    • Author(s)
      安田 英典, 鈴木 和男
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2006-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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