Quantitative risk assessment of infectious fish disease

• Project/Area Number: 18580178
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: General fisheries
• Research Institution: Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: YOKOTA Msashi Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, 海洋科学部, 助教 (00313388)
• Project Period (FY): 2006 – 2008
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2008)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,920,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000); Fiscal Year 2008: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2007: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2006: ¥1,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000)
• Keywords: 魚病 / 伝染病 / 数理モデル / シミュレーション / リスク評価 / 感染症 / 水産学 / 数値シミュレーション

Research Abstract

ニジマス稚魚におけるイクチオホヌス症の同居感染実験の数理モデルへの適合性および養殖場を想定した個体別行動と個体間感染のシミュレーションにより魚病被害の数量的解析を行った. これらを発展させて流行過程における時間スケール(感染世代時間)について検討した. 分類学的生物種とは別に伝染病には固有の感染世代時間があり、その時間スケールでは流行は予想可能であるが、それより微小な時間では感染の不確実性が高くなり予測が困難であることを示した.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Transmission of the parasite Ichthyophonus hoferi in cultured rainbow trout and comparison of epidemic models (2008)
  • Author(s): M. Yokota, S. Watanabe, K. Hatai, O. Kurata, M.Furihata and T. Usui
  • Journal Title: Journal of Aquatic Animal Health 20 Pages: 207-214
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Transmission of the parasite Ichthyophonus hoferi in cultured rainbow trout and comparison of epidemic models (2008)
  • Author(s): M. Yokota, S. Watanabe, K. Hatai, O. Kurata, M. Furihata, T. Usui
  • Journal Title: Journal of Aquatic Animal Health 20 Pages: 207-214
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Models for Risk Analysis of Infection Disease in Aquaculture (2007)
  • Author(s): M. Yokota
  • Journal Title: Proceedings of JSPS-NRCT International Symposium Pages: 461-470
• [Journal Article] 個体ベース行動モデルによる水槽内の伝染病伝播過程の数値実験 (2007)
  • Author(s): 横田賢史, 渡邊精一
  • Journal Title: 水産増殖 55 Pages: 637-644
  • NAID: 10020024436
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Models for Risk Analysis of Infection Disease in Aquaculture (2007)
  • Author(s): Masashi YOKOTA
  • Journal Title: Proceedings of JSPS-NRCT International Symposium Pages: 461-470
• [Presentation] Individual base simulation of infectious disease and estimates of its spread in cultured population (2008)
  • Author(s): M. Yokota
  • Organizer: 5th World Fisheries Congress
  • Place of Presentation: Yokohama
• [Presentation] Individual base simulation of infectious disease and estimates of its spread in cultured population (2008)
  • Author(s): M. Yokota
  • Organizer: 5th World Fisheries Congress
  • Place of Presentation: 横浜
• [Presentation] Models for Risk Analysis of Infection Disease in Aquaculture (2007)
  • Author(s): M. Yokota
  • Organizer: JSPS-NRCT International Symposium Joint Seminar 2007
  • Place of Presentation: Bangkok, Thailand
  • Year and Date: 2007-12-18
• [Presentation] Models for Risk Analysis of Infection Disease in Aquaculture (2007)
  • Author(s): Masashi YOKOTA
  • Organizer: JSPS-NRCT International Symposium Joint Seminar 2007
  • Place of Presentation: Kasetsart大学タイ王国、バンコク
  • Year and Date: 2007-12-18
• [Presentation] ニジマスにおけるイクチオホヌス感染の不確実性に関する個体ベースシミュレーション (2007)
  • Author(s): 横田賢史, 渡邊精一, 畑井喜司雄, 倉田修, 降幡充, 薄井孝彦
  • Organizer: H19年度日本水産学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 函館
  • Year and Date: 2007-09-27
• [Presentation] ニジマスにおけるイクチオホヌス感染の不確実性に関する個体ベースシミュレーション (2007)
  • Author(s): 横田賢史, 渡邊精一, 畑井喜司雄, 倉田 修, 降幡 充, 薄井孝彦
  • Organizer: 平成19年度日本水産学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道大学水産学部(函館)
  • Year and Date: 2007-09-27
• [Book] 有効集団サイズとその推測(第9章). 水産資源の増殖と保全(北田修一ほか編著) (2008)
  • Author(s): 横田賢史
  • Publisher: 成山堂書店
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://www.kaiyodai.ac.jp/Japanese/db/0010/0220/BA_40813433.html