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Basic study on hierarchical structure of tornado-spawning cyclones and predictability of tornadoes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H01277
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Niino Hiroshi  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 名誉教授 (90272525)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 益子 渉  気象庁気象研究所, 台風・災害気象研究部, 室長 (30354476)
栃本 英伍  国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所, 水・土砂防災研究部門, 特別研究員 (40749917)
末木 健太  国立研究開発法人理化学研究所, 計算科学研究センター, 特別研究員 (50802980)
横田 祥  気象庁気象研究所, 予報研究部, 研究官 (10723794)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,930,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥8,580,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,980,000)
Keywords竜巻 / 温帯低気圧 / 熱帯低気圧 / 台風 / スーパーセル / 線状降水系 / メソサイクロン / 環境場 / 突風 / ヘリシティ / 対流有効位置エネルギー / メソスケール渦 / 階層構造 / 予測可能性 / 積乱雲 / エントレインメント / 多角形壁雲
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Surface and Doppler radar observations, objective analysis data, high-resolution numerical simulations and ensemble numerical simulations are used to clarify the characteristics of structures of tropical and extratropical cyclones that spawn tornadoes and/or gusty winds (hereafter simply referred to as tornadoes) in Japan, the United States, China and Italy, the structures and environments of various mesoscale disturbances that spawn the tornadoes, and the mechanisms of tornadogeneses associated the mesoscale disturbances. A new type of a meso-beta-scale vortex that spawns tornado-like vortices over the sea was found, and a tornado associated with a quasi-linear convective system and a cyclic tornadogenesis of a non-occluding type were first numerically simulated. It is also shown that convective available potential energy incorporating the effect of entrainment gives a useful estimate of a tornado potential associated tropical and extratropical cyclones.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では竜巻から、竜巻を発生させる様々なメソスケール擾乱-古典的スーパーセル、小型スーパーセル、準線状対流系-、さらには総観規模の熱帯低気圧や温帯低気圧に至るまでの階層構造にわたって発生機構と環境場の解明を進めると共に、低気圧に伴う竜巻のポテンシャルの把握の上で「エントレインメントの効果を考慮した対流有効位置エネルギー」が有効であることを示した。また、竜巻状の突風により船舶の遭難を生ずるメソスケール渦も新たに発見した。これらの竜巻に関わる階層構造の理解と竜巻ポテンシャルの把握に有効な指標の開発は、竜巻の予測精度を向上を通して、より安全・安心な社会の実現に寄与することが期待される。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (47 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (19 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 10 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (27 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 14 results,  Invited: 5 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Sun Yat-sen University/Peking University/Southern Lab. of Ocean Sci. and Eng.(中国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Tornadogenesis in a Quasi-Linear Convective System over Kanto Plain in Japan: A Numerical Case Study2022

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto Eigo、Niino Hiroshi
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 150 Issue: 1 Pages: 259-282

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-20-0402.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Environmental Controls on Tornadoes and Tornado Outbreaks2022

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E.
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere-Ocean

      Volume: 60 Issue: 3-4 Pages: 399-421

    • DOI

      10.1080/07055900.2022.2079472

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 我が国における竜巻研究―気象学の立場から―2022

    • Author(s)
      新野 宏, 益子 渉
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 竜巻を生ずる温帯低気圧の階層構造・環境場2022

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍、新野 宏、末木健太、横田 祥、柳瀬 亘
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63 Pages: 24-31

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 竜巻を生ずる台風の構造・環境場について2022

    • Author(s)
      末木健太、新野 宏
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63 Pages: 32-39

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] フェーズドアレイレーダーを用いた竜巻研究2022

    • Author(s)
      足立 透、益子 渉、梅原章仁
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63 Pages: 56-62

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 二重偏波レーダーによる竜巻観測2022

    • Author(s)
      梅原章仁、足立 透、益子 渉、山内 洋
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63 Pages: 63-68

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 数値シミュレーションによるスーパーセル竜巻の発生機構に関する研究2022

    • Author(s)
      益子 渉
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63 Pages: 99-105

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 2019年台風17号に伴う延岡竜巻のシミュレーション2022

    • Author(s)
      伊藤純至、新野 宏
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63 Pages: 92-98

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] データ同化とアンサンブル予報を用いた竜巻発生要因の解析と予測可能性2022

    • Author(s)
      横田 祥、新野 宏、瀬古 弘、國井 勝、山内 洋、佐藤英一
    • Journal Title

      月刊海洋号外

      Volume: 63 Pages: 106-111

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Ensemble Experiments for a Maritime Meso-β-Scale Vortex that Spawned Tornado-Like Vortices Causing Shipwrecks2022

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino and W. Yanase
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 100 Issue: 1 Pages: 141-165

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2022-007

    • NAID

      130008164674

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Comparing Frontal Structures of Extratropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific and Northwestern Atlantic Storm Tracks2022

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto Eigo, Niino Hiroshi
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 150 Issue: 2 Pages: 369-392

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-21-0181.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Observed Near-Surface Wind Structure in the Inner Core of Typhoon Goni (2015)2021

    • Author(s)
      Mashiko Wataru、Shimada Udai
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 149 Pages: 1785-1800

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-20-0294.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Characteristics of Extratropical Cyclones That Cause Tornadoes in Italy: A Preliminary Study2021

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto Eigo、Miglietta Mario Marcello、Bagaglini Leonardo、Ingrosso Roberto、Niino Hiroshi
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 12 Issue: 2 Pages: 180-180

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos12020180

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Observational analysis of two waterspouts in northwestern Italy using an OPERA Doppler radar2020

    • Author(s)
      Miglietta Mario Marcello、Arai Ken'ichiro、Kusunoki Kenichi、Inoue Hanako、Adachi Toru、Niino Hiroshi
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Research

      Volume: 234 Pages: 104692-104692

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104692

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Climatology of tropical cyclone tornadoes in China from 2006 to 20182020

    • Author(s)
      Bai, L., Z. Meng, K. Sueki, G. Chen, and R. Zho
    • Journal Title

      Science China Earth Sciences

      Volume: 63 Issue: 1 Pages: 37-51

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11430-019-9391-1

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Entraining CAPE for better assessment of tornado outbreak potential in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones2019

    • Author(s)
      Eigo Tochimoto, Kenta Sueki, and Hiroshi Niino
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 147 Issue: 3 Pages: 913-930

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-18-0137.1

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Mesoscale Convective Vortex that Causes Tornado-Like Vortices over the Sea: A Potential Risk to Maritime Traffic2019

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 147 Issue: 6 Pages: 1989-2007

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-18-0302.1

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] データ同化とアンサンブル予報による竜巻発生過程の解析2018

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 新野宏, 瀬古弘, 國井勝, 山内洋
    • Journal Title

      ながれ

      Volume: 38 Pages: 8-13

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] スプリット前線の統計的特徴と温帯低気圧との関係2022

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍, 新野 宏
    • Organizer
      2022年度日本気象学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 台風第15 号に伴う暴風・突風の特徴2021

    • Author(s)
      益子 渉
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会第53回メソ気象研究会・気象災害委員会合同研究会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 竜巻の強さと温帯低気圧の関係2020

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍, 新野 宏
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本気象学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 準線状の降水システムに伴う竜巻の発生過程―1992 年12 月8 日に茨城県千代田町で発生した竜巻―2020

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍, 新野 宏
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本気象学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 竜巻の強さと温帯低気圧の関係2020

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍, 新野 宏
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2019 年日本に暴風・竜巻等突風をもたらした台風の特徴2020

    • Author(s)
      益子 渉
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本気象学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 令和元年房総半島台風に伴う強風の特徴2020

    • Author(s)
      益子 渉
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Ensemble Experiments on a Maritime Meso-β-scale Vortex that Spawned Tornado-like Vortices causing shipwrecks2019

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      10th European Conference on Severe Storms
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investigating Important Factors for Development of Meso-β-Scale Vortex that Caused Tornado-like Vortices over the Sea: Ensemble Experiments and an Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      18th Conference on Mesoscale Processes
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Wind gusts associated with mesovortices in the inner core of Typhoon GONI (2015)2019

    • Author(s)
      Mashiko, W.
    • Organizer
      10th European Conference on Severe Storms
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Case Study on a Tornado that Formed in a Quasi Linear Convective System2019

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E. and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      Japan Geoscience Union
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 2015 年台風第 15 号の内部コア域の微細構造2019

    • Author(s)
      益子渉,嶋田宇大
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Ensemble Experiments of Meso-beta-Scale Vortex that Caused a Sudden Gusty Wind over the Sea2019

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      99th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Important Factors for Tornadogenesis as Revealed by High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts of the Tsukuba F3 Tornado on 6 May 20122018

    • Author(s)
      Yokota, S., H. Niino, H. Seko, M. Kunii, and H. Yamauchi
    • Organizer
      29th Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Entraining CAPE for Better Assessment of Tornado Outbreak Potential in the Warm Sector of Extratropical Cyclones2018

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., K. Sueki, and H. Niino
    • Organizer
      29th Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Structures and Evolutions of Meso-β-scale Vortices that Spawned Tornado-like Vortices2018

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      29th Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Wind Gusts Associated with Small-Scale Vortices in the Core of Typhoon GONI (2015)2018

    • Author(s)
      Mashiko, W.
    • Organizer
      29th Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Numerical Investigation on the Environment of Tornado Occurrences Associated with Typhoon 201318 (MAN-YI)2018

    • Author(s)
      Sueki. K
    • Organizer
      29th Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Fine-scale Structures of Meso-β-scale Vortices that Cause Tornado-like Vortices2018

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      Japan Geophysical Union
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Numerical Simulations of Meso-Beta-Scale Vortices that Spawned Tornado-like Vortices2018

    • Author(s)
      Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 観測ビッグデータの同化による竜巻予測の高度化2018

    • Author(s)
      横田祥, 瀬古弘, 新野宏, 國井勝, 山内洋, 佐藤英一
    • Organizer
      ポスト「京」重点課題4 第3回成果報告会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 2015年9月1日に対馬海峡で突風を生じたメソβスケール渦のアンサンブル実験2018

    • Author(s)
      栃本英伍、横田祥、新野宏、柳瀬亘
    • Organizer
      2018年日本気象学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2015年台風第15号のコア域の風構造2018

    • Author(s)
      益子渉
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年春季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2018年台風第6号の接近に伴い沖縄県伊江島で発生した竜巻の発生過程2018

    • Author(s)
      益子渉
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 台風201318号に伴う竜巻の発生環境場に関する数値的研究2018

    • Author(s)
      末木健太
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Tornadoes: Our current understanding and future subjects2018

    • Author(s)
      Niino, H.
    • Organizer
      Distinguished Ogura Lectures Accompanying Session, Fall Meeting of the Meteorological Society of Japan
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Tornadoes: Their strutcture, genesis mechanism and environment2018

    • Author(s)
      Niino, H.
    • Organizer
      2nd Asia-Pacific Conference on Plasma Physics
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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