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Joint Probability Evaluation System for Extreme Natural Forces causing Complex Disaster

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H01543
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
Research InstitutionNagoya Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

Kitano Toshikazu  名古屋工業大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (00284307)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 渡部 哲史  京都大学, 防災研究所, 特定准教授 (20633845)
上野 玄太  統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 教授 (40370093)
志村 隆彰  統計数理研究所, 数理・推論研究系, 准教授 (40235677)
田中 茂信  京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (70414985)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥13,650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,150,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Keywords再現期間 / 多変量極値理論 / 極値コピュラ / 合致率 / 経験度 / ポアソン過程 / 気候変動対策 / 不確実性の下での意思決定 / 多変量極値統計理論 / 従属性の階層構造 / Husler-Reissモデル / 包除原理 / 成分最大値コピュラ / 降雨継続時間と降雨量のスケール則 / ポイントプロセスモデル / 再現期間に対する経験度 / 多変量極値モデル / 気候変動に伴う外力範囲の増大 / コピュラ / 空間相関解析 / 順位相関係数 / 成分最大値とイベント毎の極値 / 従属関数と相関関数 / 気候変動 / 多変量極値の相関 / 閾値超過多変量極値(TEXMEX) / 豪雨や高潮などの自然災害 / 依存関数 / 相関関数 / 極値分布 / 低頻度巨大災害 / ポアソン分布 / GEV / 2変量極値統計理論 / 順位を用いたノンパラメトリック法 / 従属性を表現する横断分布 / 従属性を含まない縦断分布 / 同時生起の再現期間 / 流域平均降雨 / ピッカンズ従属関数 / 多変量パレート分布 / 極値依存スペクトル密度関数 / 多変量極値分布 / 多変量極値パレート分布 / 多変量ポアソン分布 / 包括生起率と同時生起率 / 上位K番めの極値 / ratio-of-uniform 法によるベイズ推定 / 多変量パレート / 依存スペクトル関数
Outline of Final Research Achievements

A once-in-a-century storm surge does not always occur a once-in-a-century extreme wave height at the same time. Even if the damage in adjacent areas does not rank high, the total damage for both ports may rank higher. Estimation of joint occurrence is one of the important points of view of formulating a wide-area restoration plan. Taking advantage of the fact that pairs of annual maxima are not necessarily the same event, we propose newly accordance index, which is the ratio of the number of years in which the annual maxima are pairs of the same meteorological disturbance. We developed an analysis tool that can calculate the joint probability of combinations of three or more variables from the joint rate. We also implemented the efficient algorithm of random generation with the stopping-rule to evaluate the probabilities. Dealing with the uncertainty specifically by employing the advanced statistical models contributes to the decision-making against the disasters due to climate change.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

多変量極値理論は,およそ60年前に検討が始まり,現在進行形で開発されつつある数学的研究である.また,1変量極値分布とは異なり,多変量極値分布は,非常に多様である.特に,2変量から3変量以上に拡張する際には,2変量が対称となっていても,3変量の組合せに対してはネスト構造をはじめとして非対称な構造をとる.そのため,災害外力の同時生起確率の評価として応用する際の工夫は,数学と工学をつなぐために必要かつ不可欠なリンクである.さらに,気候変動が顕在化する現在,高度な確率・統計モデルを用いて,不確実性を具体的に扱えるようにすることは,風水害の対策の意思決定に重要な役割を果たす.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (88 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (41 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 32 results,  Open Access: 8 results) Presentation (46 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 8 results,  Invited: 7 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] いまだからこそ読んでおきたい極値統計の古典(2)2変量極値分布タイプ A, B, C2023

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Journal Title

      統計数理研究所共同研究リポート462,極値理論の工学への応用 (20)

      Volume: 20 Pages: 3-12

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] SPATIAL DEPENDENCE ANALYSIS OF EXTREME WAVE HEIGHTS BY EMPLOYING NESTED MODEL FOR CROSS OCCURRENCE RATE2022

    • Author(s)
      北野 利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_91-I_96

    • DOI

      10.2208/kaigan.78.2_I_91

    • ISSN
      1883-8944, 1884-2399
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] AN ATTEMPT TO REDUCE ESTIMATION ERROR VARIANCE BY ASSUMING THE SCALE LAW IN DEPTH-DURATION-FREQUENCY RELATIONSHIP2022

    • Author(s)
      北野 利一, 大野 智也, Sylvester Karabau ROKUMAN
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_469-I_474

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_469

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] MATTERS TO BE ATTENDED TO FLOOD CONTROL PLAN THROUGH EXTREME ANALYSIS WITH PEAK DISCHARGE AND CATCHMENT AVERAGE RAINFALL2022

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信・小林健一郎・北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_475-I_480

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_475

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] FUTURE CHANGES OF COOCCURRENCE PROBABILITY OF EXTREME FLOODS USING BIVARIATE EXTREME VALUE THEORY AND d4PDF2022

    • Author(s)
      田中智大・平松優佑・北野利一・立川康人
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_445-I_450

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_445

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL LEVEE HEIGHT USING PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC VERIFICATION2022

    • Author(s)
      田中晴規・安田誠宏・山中亮一・福谷 陽・谷口 純一・牛木賢司・北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_283-I_288

    • DOI

      10.2208/kaigan.78.2_I_283

    • ISSN
      1883-8944, 1884-2399
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Three types of indexes to describe dependency of bivariate and multivariate extremes of natural hazards2022

    • Author(s)
      Kitano, T.
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research

      Volume: 1 Pages: 201-204

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Robust estimation of flood coincidence probability using bivariate extreme value theory and D4Pdf2022

    • Author(s)
      Tanaka, T. and T. Kitano
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research

      Volume: 1 Pages: 242-245

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Impact of climate and land-use changes on the water and sediment dynamics of the Tokoro River Basin, Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Yuka Muto, Keigo Noda, Yasuyuki Maruya, Takeyoshi Chibana, Satoshi Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Environmental Advances

      Volume: 7 Pages: 100153-100153

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.envadv.2021.100153

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Componentwise Maxima and Threshold Excess Multivariate Extremes: Mutual Connections, their Simple Extreme Distributions and Random Generation Methods for those Extreme Values2021

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japan Statistical Society, Japanese Issue

      Volume: 51 Issue: 1 Pages: 123-156

    • DOI

      10.11329/jjssj.51.123

    • NAID

      130008088077

    • ISSN
      0389-5602, 2189-1478
    • Year and Date
      2021-09-15
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An Application of Multivariate Extreme Value Distribution to d4PDF: Co-occurrence Probability of Extreme Floods in Two River Basins2021

    • Author(s)
      田中智大・北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Ouyou toukeigaku

      Volume: 50 Issue: 2-3 Pages: 75-101

    • DOI

      10.5023/jappstat.50.75

    • ISSN
      0285-0370, 1883-8081
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ACCORDANCE OF COMPONENTWISE MAXIMA IN MULTIVARIATE SEA EXTREME EVENTS2021

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_73-I_78

    • DOI

      10.2208/kaigan.77.2_I_73

    • NAID

      130008113446

    • ISSN
      1883-8944, 1884-2399
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] SIMPLE EXTREME VARIABLE AND EXCEEDANCE NUMBER REVEALING THE MATHEMATICAL PROPERTIES OF EXTREME PRECIPITATIONS2021

    • Author(s)
      北野利一,渡部哲史,小林健一郎
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1153-I_1158

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_1153

    • NAID

      130008160077

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A DISCUSSION ON EXTREME PRECIPITATION UNDER 2°C AND 4°C WARMING IN d4PDF FOCUSING ON THE INVERSION OF FUTURE CHANGE2021

    • Author(s)
      渡部哲史・内海信幸・北野利一・中北 英一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1279-I_1284

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_1279

    • NAID

      130008160029

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A STUDY ON THE PROJECTED RANGE OF FUTURE CHANGES IN RIVER DISCHARGE BASED ON A LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE SIMULATION2021

    • Author(s)
      本田 洋平・渡部 哲史・知花 武佳・山田 真史・阿部 紫織・菊地 純・斉藤 健・伊藤 俊介・ 藤沢 直志・池内 幸司
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_175-I_180

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_175

    • NAID

      130008160112

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A NEW THRESHOLD SELECTION METHOD USING <i>L</i>-MOMENT FOR POT ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION TIME SERIES2021

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信, 北野 利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1165-I_1170

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_1165

    • NAID

      130008160078

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] SIMULATION OF ARAKAWA MIDDILE STREAM FLOOD DUE TO TYPHOON 19 20192021

    • Author(s)
      小林健一郎,田中規夫,丸山恭介,田中翔,渡部哲史,北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1393-I_1398

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_1393

    • NAID

      130008160018

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] EVALUATION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON THE DISCHARGE OF THE SAYOGAWA RIVER BY MULTI-RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS2021

    • Author(s)
      小林健一郎,田中規夫,丸山恭介,田中翔,渡部哲史,北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_181-I_186

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_181

    • NAID

      130008160113

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Comparison of AMS and POT Analysis with Long Historical Precipitation and Future Change Analysis Using “d4PDF”2021

    • Author(s)
      Shigeru Tanaka
    • Journal Title

      Pioneering Works on Extreme Value Theory, In Honor of Masaaki Sibuya

      Volume: 1 Pages: 93-112

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-981-16-0768-4_5

    • ISBN
      9789811607677, 9789811607684
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 降水量資料の極値解析に用いる閾値の選定2021

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信
    • Journal Title

      統計数理研究所共同研究リポート「極値理論の工学への応用(18)」

      Volume: 445 Pages: 124-132

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 多地点降雨量の極値に対する相関関数と依存関数2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集(水工学)

      Volume: 76

    • NAID

      130008122688

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 閾値超過の2変量極値の相関 - その数学的意義と視覚表現2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Journal Title

      統計数理研究所共同研究リポート「極値理論の工学への応用(18)」

      Volume: 445 Pages: 156-168

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 再現期間再訪2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一,志村隆彰
    • Journal Title

      統計数理研究所共同研究リポート「極値理論の工学への応用(18)」

      Volume: 445 Pages: 63-79

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 気候モデル出力値のバイアス補正(1)特徴に基づく手法の整理2020

    • Author(s)
      渡部哲史
    • Journal Title

      水文水資源学会誌

      Volume: 33 Pages: 243-262

    • NAID

      130007945036

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Snow water scarcity induced by record-breaking warm winter in 2020 in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe Satoshi、Kotsuki Shunji、Kanae Shinjiro、Tanaka Kenji、Higuchi Atsushi
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 18541-18541

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-020-75440-8

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Bias correction of d4PDF using a moving window method and their uncertainty analysis in estimation and projection of design rainfall depth2020

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe Satoshi、Yamada Masafumi、Abe Shiori、Hatono Misako
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Research Letters

      Volume: 14 Issue: 3 Pages: 117-122

    • DOI

      10.3178/hrl.14.117

    • NAID

      130007902839

    • ISSN
      1882-3416
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 降雨流出氾濫モデル・エミュレータによる浸水範囲予測2020

    • Author(s)
      関本大晟, 渡部哲史, 小槻峻司, 山田真史, 阿部紫織, 綿貫翔
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B1(水工学)

      Volume: 76

    • NAID

      130008122712

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 閾値超過資料の閾値選定手法の提案2020

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信
    • Journal Title

      統計数理研究所共同研究リポート「極値理論の 工学への応用」

      Volume: 433 Pages: 61-69

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 恋する極値統計2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Journal Title

      統計数理研究所共同研究リポート「極値理論の 工学への応用」

      Volume: XXX Pages: 148-167

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Threshold choice for the bivariate GP distribution of joint occurrence of extremes of natural hazards by using the correlation coefficient of counting the exceedance numbers2019

    • Author(s)
      Toshikazu Kitano
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research

      Volume: 8 Pages: 104-106

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] d4PDFの多数アンサンブルを活かした極大降水量の2地点の依存性についてのノンパラメトリック解析2019

    • Author(s)
      北野利一・志村隆彰・田中茂信
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 75

    • NAID

      130007940126

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 上位K番め最大値分布を用いた確率波高の標本分布の近似2019

    • Author(s)
      北野 利一, 上野 玄太, 森 聡紫, 森 亮太
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B2(海岸工学)

      Volume: 75

    • NAID

      130007730111

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ノンパラメトリックな発想による確率降水量の標本分布のパラメトリックな近似2019

    • Author(s)
      北野 利一
    • Journal Title

      日本計算機統計学会大会論文集

      Volume: 33 Pages: 101-104

    • NAID

      130007752458

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The application of super-ensemble experiments for the projection of future river discharge in East Asia2019

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S., H. Kim, and N. Utsumi
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research

      Volume: 8 Pages: 188-190

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Characteristics of Precipitation Extremes in Major River Basins of Japan using "d4PDF"2019

    • Author(s)
      Shigenobu Tanaka
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research

      Volume: 8 Pages: 111-113

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Integrated research program for advancing climate models (TOUGOU) area theme D: Integrated hazard prediction2019

    • Author(s)
      Eiichi Nakakita, Nobuhito Mori, Kenji Tanaka, Tetsuya Takemi, Yasuto Tachikawa, Hirokazu Tatano and Toshikazu Kitano
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research

      Volume: 8 Pages: 15-17

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] JOINT OCCURRENCE ESTIMATION OF EXTREMES ATTACKING TO COASTAL AREA BY EMPLOYING A BIVARIATE GP DISTRIBUTION - THRESHOLD CHOICE BASED ON CORRELATION COEFFICIENT -2018

    • Author(s)
      KITANO Toshikazu、UEDA Yuki、KANEZAKI Kouta、ZHAO Wenpeng
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

      Volume: 74 Issue: 2 Pages: I_121-I_126

    • DOI

      10.2208/kaigan.74.I_121

    • NAID

      130007503968

    • ISSN
      1883-8944, 1884-2399
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 再現レベルを超過する降水量の極大値のベイズ予測 -将来の期間最大降水量の予測との違い-2018

    • Author(s)
      北野利一・田中耕司・上野玄太
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 74

    • NAID

      130007757826

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] アメダス観測点を対象とした d4PDFバイアス補正降水量データセットの開発2018

    • Author(s)
      渡部哲史, 中村みゆき, 内海信幸
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 74

    • NAID

      130007757751

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 年間上位r個を対象にした極値解析による超過確率1,000年規模で設定される想定最大規模降雨の妥当性2018

    • Author(s)
      田中耕司, 北野利一, 吉田達也, 前田茂穂
    • Journal Title

      河川技術論文集

      Volume: 24 Pages: 385-390

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 人口減少と資産分布変化を考慮した気候変動下における洪水被害推定2018

    • Author(s)
      中村みゆき, 渡部哲史, 川崎昭如
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 74

    • NAID

      130007757889

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 3変量の極値に対するNest Negative Logisticモデル2022

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所 共同研究集会「接合関数(コピュラ)理論の新展開」
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] いまだからこそ読んでおきたい極値統計の古典(2)2変量極値分布タイプ A, B, C2022

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所 共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 従属性に階層構造を仮定した高波の波高の極値空間相関解析2022

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      海岸工学講演会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動予測値を現実に活用する際になすべきこと2022

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      統合的気候モデル高度化研究プログラム テーマD「統合的ハザード予測」公開シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Revisited Return Period and Joint Occurrence of TEXMEX2021

    • Author(s)
      Kitano, Toshikazu
    • Organizer
      AOGS2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] いまだからこそ読んでおきたい極値統計の古典(1)超過数分布2021

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所 共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] AMS を用いた極値解析からは見えにくい AMS の課題2021

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所 共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Revisited Return Period and Joint Occurrence of Sea Extremes2021

    • Author(s)
      Kitano, Toshikazu
    • Organizer
      3rd JSCE- CCES Joint Symposium of Civil Engineering
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Several Indices to Describe the Dependency for Multivariate Extremes of Natural Hazards2021

    • Author(s)
      Kitano, Toshikazu
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Adaptation Research for Climate Change in Asia (ARCC2021)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 多変量の閾値超過極値に対する縦断・横断分布,依存間数と相関関数2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 南海トラフ地震津波を想定したハザード評価に関する統計的検討2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      第27回信頼性設計技術ワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 多地点降雨量の極値に対する相関関数と依存関数2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      水工学講演会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 確率津波シミュレーションに係るサンプルサイズの決め方2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      海岸工学講演会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 南海トラフ地震津波を想定したハザード評価2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      東海圏減災研究コンサーシアム
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] リターンピリオド再訪2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 降水量資料の極値解析にもちいる閾値の選定2020

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 低頻度に伴う不確実性について - 数理統計の視点から2020

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      防災学術連携シンポジウム 「低頻度巨大災害を考える」,日本学術会議
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Applications of bivariate generalized Pareto distribution and the threshold choice2019

    • Author(s)
      Kitano, T.
    • Organizer
      Villa Eberhardt, Ulm University
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Application of a large ensemble climate simulation for flood risk assessment of urban infrastructures2019

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S., T. Onodera, R Arai, and K Ikeuchi
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2019 Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Subexponential densities of infinitely divisible distributions2019

    • Author(s)
      Takaaki Shimura
    • Organizer
      Villa Eberhardt, Ulm University
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] An approach to effectively use large ensemble climate simulation for the projection of hydrological extremes in Japan under climate change2019

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S., H. Kim, and N. Utsumi
    • Organizer
      IUGG, Montreal
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 風水害外力の激化の兆候とその不確実性2019

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      土木学会中部支部 伊勢湾台風60 年事業「地球温暖化への対応策(愛知県における水防災対策)」
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 統計パラドックスから我々が直面する不確実性を考える2019

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      日本鉄道技術協会(JREA) 関西支部
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] バイアス補正の考え方2019

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      農業農村整備における気候変動対策に関する研究会(農林水産省農村振興局)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Correlation of Bivariate Extremes Exceeding over the Thresholds - Mathematical Definition and the Graphical Displays2019

    • Author(s)
      Toshikazu KITANO
    • Organizer
      Pioneering Workshop on Extreme Value and Distribution Theories - In Honor of Professor Masaaki Sibuya, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Future Change in Relationships among Extreme Precipitation Statistics Using “d4PDF”2019

    • Author(s)
      Shigenobu TANAKA
    • Organizer
      Pioneering Workshop on Extreme Value and Distribution Theories - In Honor of Professor Masaaki Sibuya, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 現在気候と将来気候の豪雨のアンサンブルデータを用いた頻度比較解析2019

    • Author(s)
      森 聡紫 ・ Zhao Wenpeng ・ 北野利一
    • Organizer
      土木学会第73回年次学術講演会,2018,札幌
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動に伴う外力の不確実性に対する課題2019

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      高度防災工学シンポジウム〔巨大災害が突きつけた課題となすべきことを考える〕,名古屋工業大学
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Development of Bias Correction Methods and of Extreme Values Assessment Technology2018

    • Author(s)
      Toshikazu KITANO
    • Organizer
      15th Annual Meeting, Asia Oceania Geoscience Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Dual window bias correction for hourly precipitation projected by super ensemble experiments2018

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, Satoshi
    • Organizer
      15th Annual Meeting, Asia Oceania Geoscience Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Probability Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Future Using “d4PDF”2018

    • Author(s)
      Shigenobu Tanaka
    • Organizer
      NCDR-DPRI Workshop 2018, DPRI
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Interesting Statistical Characteristics of Precipitation Extremes in Major River Basins of Japan using a Large Ensemble of Climate Simulations "d4PDF"2018

    • Author(s)
      Shigenobu Tanaka
    • Organizer
      THA 2019 International Conference on Water Management and Climate Change towards Asia's Water-Energy-Food Nexus and SDGs
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Uncertainty and bias in extreme value analysis of records of storm surges for coastal protection plans2018

    • Author(s)
      Toshikazu KITANO
    • Organizer
      ICCE 2018, Amer. Soc. Civil Eng.
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 2変量GP 分布を用いた沿岸域外力の同時生起頻度の推定法2018

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      第64回 海岸工学講演会,土木学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 0.01のパラドックスとジレンマ(Paradox and dilemma around the probability 0.01)2018

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      第31回年次大会,日本リスク研究学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アメダス観測点を対象とした d4PDFバイアス補正降水量データセットの開発2018

    • Author(s)
      渡部哲史
    • Organizer
      第62回 水工学講演会,土木学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 再現レベルを超過する降水量の極大値のベイズ予測2018

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      第62回 水工学講演会,土木学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 年間上位r個を対象にした極値解析による超過確率1,000年規模で設定される想定最大規模降雨の妥当性2018

    • Author(s)
      田中耕司
    • Organizer
      河川技術に関するシンポジウム,土木学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] d4PDFを用いた空間平均降水量極値の将来変化2018

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信
    • Organizer
      第37回日本自然災害学会学術講演会,日本自然災害学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アメダス観測点を対象としたd4PDFバイアス補正降水量データセット2018

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会第31回総会・研究集会,2018,三重
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 0.01のパラドックス2018

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」,統計数理研究所
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 降水量極値の時空間特性の将来変化2018

    • Author(s)
      田中 茂信
    • Organizer
      共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」,統計数理研究所
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 平成23年9月台風12号の温暖化実験値における熊野川流域内の降雨分布特性2018

    • Author(s)
      田中 耕司
    • Organizer
      共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」,統計数理研究所
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 将来洪水リスクにおいて人口減少を考慮する重要性2018

    • Author(s)
      渡部哲史
    • Organizer
      土木学会第73回年次学術講演会,2018,札幌
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A POINT PROCESS APPROACH OF BIVARIATE EXTREMES OF RAINFALL DATA2018

    • Author(s)
      zhao wenpeng ・ 植田祐輝 ・ 森 聡紫 ・ 北野利一
    • Organizer
      土木学会第73回年次学術講演会,2018,札幌
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 相関係数を用いた2変量一般化パレート分布(BGPD)の閾値選択2018

    • Author(s)
      北野利一
    • Organizer
      共同研究集会「極値理論の工学への応用」,統計数理研究所
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Pioneering Works on Extreme Value Theory, In Honor of Masaaki Sibuya2021

    • Author(s)
      Hoshino, N., Mano, S., T. Shimura Editors
    • Total Pages
      134
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9789811607677
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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