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Land-Atmosphere-Coupled Data Assimilation: Improving Atmospheric and Hydrological Predictions by Hydrological Big Data Assimilation

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H01549
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
Research InstitutionChiba University (2019-2020)
Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (2018)

Principal Investigator

Kotsuki Shunji  千葉大学, 環境リモートセンシング研究センター, 准教授 (90729229)

Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥7,280,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,680,000)
Keywordsデータ同化 / 気象予測 / 土壌水分 / 結合システム / 降水予測 / 水文 / 降水 / 結合同化 / 数値天気予報 / 大気陸面相互作用 / ビッグデータ / 予測 / 気象 / 衛星観測 / 全球陸面再解析 / NICAM-LETKF / 大気 / 天気予報
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aims at exploring advanced methods to assimilate hydrological observations into the global data assimilation system for improving medium-range weather/hydrological forecasts. With operational global atmospheric data assimilation system NICAM-LETKF, we have reached to following achievements:
(1) We have pioneered a method for effectively assimilating soil moisture observations from GLDAS to NICAM by strongly coupled data assimilation. It was shown that updating atmospheric variables by soil moisture assimilation was beneficial, while the updating of land surface variables by atmospheric variable assimilation has was unbeneficial. (2) We explored to NICAM model parameter estimations by assimilation of satellite-sensed hydrological observations. GSMaP-based parameter estimation improved precipitation forecasts, and GCOM2_AMSR2-based parameter estimation improved radiation budgets successfully.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

諸国の経済が国境を越えて密接に関わる現代では、自国のみならず、「場所を問わず」他国の災害可能性をモニタリングする必要がある。自然災害の多くは気象現象、特に降水により引き起こされるため、2週間程度の中期天気予報を改善し、災害の予報スキルを向上させることは重要な社会的使命である。本研究では、現業機関でほとんど活用されていない陸域の水文観測ビッグデータを用いた中期天気予報改善へ取り組んだ。全球の土壌水分・降水量・可降水量などのデータを有効に天気予報に取り込む手法を探求し、データ同化手法の高度化やモデルパラメータ推定により、降水予報を始めとする天気予報改善を達成した。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (55 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 15 results,  Open Access: 11 results) Presentation (35 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 21 results,  Invited: 8 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Melbourne(オーストラリア)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ドイツ気象局(ドイツ)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Empirical determination of the covariance of forecast errors: An empirical justification and reformulation of hybrid covariance models2021

    • Author(s)
      Carri? Diego S.、Bishop Craig H.、Kotsuki Shunji
    • Journal Title

      Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

      Volume: in print Issue: 736 Pages: 2033-2052

    • DOI

      10.1002/qj.4008

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Snow water scarcity induced by record-breaking warm winter in 2020 in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe Satoshi、Kotsuki Shunji、Kanae Shinjiro、Tanaka Kenji、Higuchi Atsushi
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 18541-18541

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-020-75440-8

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Weight structure of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter: A case with an intermediate atmospheric general circulation model2020

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki Shunji、Pensoneault Andrew、Okazaki Atsushi、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

      Volume: 146 Issue: 732 Pages: 3399-3415

    • DOI

      10.1002/qj.3852

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Precipitation Ensemble Data Assimilation in NWP Models2020

    • Author(s)
      Miyoshi Takemasa、Kotsuki Shunji、Terasaki Koji、Otsuka Shigenori、Lien Guo-Yuan、Yashiro Hisashi、Tomita Hirofumi、Satoh Masaki、Kalnay Eugenia
    • Journal Title

      Advances in Global Change Research

      Volume: 69 Pages: 983-991

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-3-030-35798-6_25

    • ISBN
      9783030357979, 9783030357986
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 回帰学習器のアンサンブル学習による降雨洪水氾濫モデル・エミュレータ2020

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 桃井裕広,菊地亮太, 渡部哲史, 山田真史, 阿部紫織,綿貫翔
    • Journal Title

      水工学論文集

      Volume: 76 Pages: 367-372

    • NAID

      130008122613

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 降雨流出氾濫モデル・エミュレータによる浸水範囲予測2020

    • Author(s)
      関本大晟,渡部哲史, 小槻峻司, 山田真史, 阿部紫織,綿貫翔
    • Journal Title

      水工学論文集

      Volume: 76 Pages: 547-552

    • NAID

      130008122712

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Data Assimilation for Climate Research: Model Parameter Estimation of Large‐Scale Condensation Scheme2020

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki Shunji、Sato Yousuke、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 125 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1029/2019jd031304

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] GSMaP RIKEN Nowcast: Global Precipitation Nowcasting with Data Assimilation2019

    • Author(s)
      OTSUKA Shigenori、KOTSUKI Shunji、OHHIGASHI Marimo、MIYOSHI Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 97 Issue: 6 Pages: 1099-1117

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2019-061

    • NAID

      130007759817

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Simulating precipitation radar observations from a geostationary satellite2019

    • Author(s)
      Okazaki Atsushi、Honda Takumi、Kotsuki Shunji、Yamaji Moeka、Kubota Takuji、Oki Riko、Iguchi Toshio、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Measurement Technique

      Volume: 12 Pages: 3985-3996

    • DOI

      10.5194/amt-2018-278

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Global precipitation forecasts by merging extrapolation-based nowcast and numerical weather prediction with locally-optimized weights2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki, S., K. Kurosawa, S. Otsuka, K. Terasaki, and T. Miyoshi
    • Journal Title

      Weather and Forecasting

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 701-714

    • DOI

      10.1175/waf-d-18-0164.1

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] On the properties of ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki Shunji、Kurosawa Kenta、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

      Volume: 145 Issue: 722 Pages: 1897-1914

    • DOI

      10.1002/qj.3534

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 大規模気候予測情報に基づく浸水リスク推計の特性について2019

    • Author(s)
      阿部紫織, 渡部哲史, 山田真史, 小槻峻司,綿貫翔
    • Journal Title

      水工学論文集

      Volume: 75 Pages: 1081-1086

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Predictability of Record-Breaking Rainfall in Japan in July 2018: Ensemble Forecast Experiments with the Near-real-time Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation System NEXRA2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Terasaki K., Kanemaru K., Satoh M., Kubota T. and Miyoshi T.
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 15A Pages: 1-7

    • NAID

      130007557999

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Multi-Year Analysis Using the NICAM-LETKF Data Assimilation System2019

    • Author(s)
      Terasaki Koji、Kotsuki Shunji、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 15 Issue: 0 Pages: 41-46

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2019-009

    • NAID

      130007604730

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Online Model Parameter Estimation With Ensemble Data Assimilation in the Real Global Atmosphere: A Case With the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Data2018

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki Shunji、Terasaki Koji、Yashiro Hisashi、Tomita Hirofumi、Satoh Masaki、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 123 Issue: 14 Pages: 7375-7392

    • DOI

      10.1029/2017jd028092

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 衛星データ同化による全球大気モデルNICAMの高度化:雷予測モデルの構築への取り組み2021

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 佐藤陽佑
    • Organizer
      CEReS シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] GPM DPRデータ同化によるNICAM雲微物理パラメータ推定2021

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 寺崎康児, 佐藤正樹, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      GPM・衛星シミュレータ合同研究集会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 深層学習を用いた降雨洪水氾濫モデル・エミュレータの開発2021

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司
    • Organizer
      富岳」成果創出加速プログラム・成果発表会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Weight Structure of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter: A Case with an Intermediate AGCM2020

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki, S., Pensoneault, A., Okazaki, A. and Miyoshi, T.
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of GPM/DPR Reflectivity into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM2020

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki, S., Terasaki, K., Satoh, M. and Miyoshi, T.
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 回帰学習器のアンサンブル学習による降雨洪水氾濫モデル・エミュレータ2020

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 桃井裕広,菊地亮太, 渡部哲史, 山田真史, 阿部紫織,綿貫翔
    • Organizer
      水工学講演会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 最先端のデータサイエンスで切り拓く「富岳」時代のリアルタイム地球環境予測2020

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司
    • Organizer
      千葉大学GPシンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of GPM/DPR Reflectivity into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM.2020

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Terasaki K., Satoh M. and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      4th workshop on assimilating satellite cloud and precipitation observations for NWP
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] リモートセンシングデータを使った天気予報研究の最前線2020

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司
    • Organizer
      千葉大学経済人倶楽部・絆 公開講座
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 球衛星観測降水データを用いた天気予報システムの高度化2020

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司
    • Organizer
      第22回環境リモートセンシングシンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ocal Particle Filter Implemented with Minor Modifications to the LETKF Code2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Miyoshi T., Kondo K., and Potthast R.
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Data Assimilation Research for Global Weather Prediction2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S.
    • Organizer
      The 7th International Symposium on Water Environmental Systems
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] A New Evaluation Method for Cloud Microphysics Schemes Using GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Kurosawa K., Kanemaru K., Terasaki K. and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      39th International Conference on Radar Meteorology
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Diagnosing Observation Impacts and Error Covariance with NICAM-LETKF2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      LMU DA Seminar
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Diagnosing Observation Impacts and Error Covariance with NICAM-LETKF2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      DWD NWP Seminar
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Model Parameter Estimation with Data Assimilation using NICAM-LETKF.2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Sato Y., Terasaki K., Yashiro H., Tomita H., Satoh M. and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of GPM/DPR Reflectivity into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Terasaki K., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] データ同化と経験科学の相似性について2019

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司
    • Organizer
      科学基礎論学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 低解像度全球大気モデルを用いた局所粒子フィルタ実験2019

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 三好建正:
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 全球大気・水文結合データ同化システムの開発と土壌水分データ同化実験2019

    • Author(s)
      黒澤賢太, 小槻峻司, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 全球大気データ同化システムによる天気予報研究の最前線2019

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      第14回名工大・核融合研合同セミナー
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Local Particle Filter: 低解像度全球大気モデルSPEEDY数値実験2019

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      第10回 理研・京大データ同化研究会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Observation Diagnostics with NICAM-LETKF.2019

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 黒澤賢太, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      データ同化手法を活用した観測システムの影響評価に関する研究会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Model Parameter Estimation with Data Assimilation using NICAM-LETKF2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Sato Y., Terasaki K., Yashiro H., Tomita H., Satoh M. and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      The 1st R-CCS International Symposiu
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Model Parameter Estimation with Data Assimilation using NICAM-LETKF2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Sato Y., Terasaki K., Yashiro H., Tomita H., Satoh M. and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      7th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On the Properties of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Kurosawa K., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      7th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Adaptive covariance relaxation methods for ensemble data assimilation based on innovation statistics2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Ota Y., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      7th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Spatial structure of weights in the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter: A case with an intermediate AGCM2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Pensoneault A., Okazaki A., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      7th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] nsemble-Based Data Assimilation of GPM/DPR Reflectivity into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Terasaki K., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      7th International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] NICAM-LETKFを用いたGPM/DPRデータ同化実験2019

    • Author(s)
      小槻峻司, 寺崎康児, 黒澤賢太, 金丸佳矢, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      平成30年度GPMおよび衛星シミュレータ合同研究集会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Model Parameter Estimation with Data Assimilation using NICAM-LETKF2018

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Sato Y., Terasaki K., Yashiro H., Tomita H., Satoh M. and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Weight structure of Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter: A case with an intermediate AGCM2018

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Pensoneault A., Okazaki A., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      9th Japanese Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of GPM/DPR Reflectivity into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM2018

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Terasaki K., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations Verified with Multiple References2018

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Kurosawa K., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On the assimilation order of the serial ensemble Kalman filter: A study with the Lorenz-96 model.2018

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki S., Greybush S. J., and Miyoshi T.
    • Organizer
      The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] 世界の気象リアルタイム: NEXRA

    • URL

      https://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/theme/NEXRA/index_j.htm

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 研究代表者HP

    • URL

      http://www.kotsuki-shunji.com/index.html

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 研究代表者・研究室HP

    • URL

      https://kotsuki-lab.com/

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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