| Project/Area Number |
18H01675
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Review Section |
Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
|
|---|
| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | disaster recovery / economic perfoamrnce / agent-based modeling / HPC / Agent based simulations / economy / disaster / validation / seamless simulations / post-disaster economy / integrated simulations / economic simulations / agent based model / earthquake disaster / big-data / machine learning / economic simulation / 1:1 scale model / agent based modeling / natural disasters / Agent based economics / Agent based simulations / optimal recovery plans / large scale simulations |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We developed a high performance software to simulate the national economy in 1:1-scale and integrated it with a large scale earthquake disaster simulator to comprehensively estimate the long-term economic performance of given recovery plans. Analyzing data from government sources, such as e-Stat, we identified the parameters to simulate the Japanese economy in 1:1 scale; i.e., consisting of 127 million economic entities. Starting with the conditions of 2015, we simulated the Japanese economy until the end of 2019. Good agreement of the simulation results with the observed records demonstrated that the developed model can simulate the Japanese economy to a reasonable degree. We integrated the economic simulator with an earthquake disaster simulator to seamlessly simulate an earthquake disaster in a large urban area, evaluate the degree of the damage, repair cost, recovery period, etc. of each building, and evaluate the long economic performance of potential recovery plans.
|
| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
開発されたソフトウェアは、災害対策を立案する際、復興計画の長期的な経済パフォーマンスを総合的に評価することを可能にし、南海・東南海地震のような差し迫った大規模災害からの社会・経済復興の加速が期待できます。なお、開発したコードは、ハイパフォーマンス・コンピューティングを利用して大規模経済を1:1スケールでシミュレーションできる唯一のものです。
|
